UK By-elections thread, 2021-

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I think Tories favoured in Hartlepool but lets remember most polls predicted Brexit party would take Peterborough and Labour held it (lost Tories in general election).  Still would be a blow to Keir Starmer showing still trouble in Red Wall.  Nonetheless Boris has received a strong bounce due to successful vaccine roll out so in some ways is probably at high water mark.  Labour has a long way to go before returning to office but how recovery and Brexit goes is probably going to decide 2024 so polls right now are largely meaningless for next election.  

That being said both parties have advantages and disadvantages

Tory advantage: They have far more safe seats than Labour and pretty much have 250 seats in the bag without doing anything while Labour has only around 150-160 in the bag so strong head start.

Labour advantage: Labour doesn't need to win most seats, just ensure Tories + Unionist parties have less than half the seats as SNP and Liberal Democrats have already ruled out propping up Tories.

Tory disadvantage: Will have been in power for 14 years and generally most parties when in office that long face voter fatigue and desire for change stronger.

Labour disadvantage: Are pretty much dead in Scotland and without Scotland and 40 seats they got prior to 2015, their path to 326 extremely difficult.  Means winning in normally safe Tory seats like consistuency of Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Stunning how much things have changed since 2014:

Up until the Thatcher years, the Conservatives had an easier path to a majority, but not because Britain was a right-leaning country.  Southern England was the Tory base, while the Labour base was located mainly in Wales and Northern England.  Scotland was a swing region, but nevertheless delivered a good chunk of seats for the Tories.  Gerrymandering also played a factor in giving Labour a hard time mustering a majority.

Post-Thatcher, Scottish Tories were essentially obliterated by Labour.  With the Tory base reduced to only Southern England, Labour had gained the upper hand.  Today, Labour has an easier path to a majority, not because Britain has become a left-leaning country.  Rather, regional strength and Labour gerrymandering prevents a Conservative majority unless there is a massive swing.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Somehow the only seat the Tories kept was Boris’s despite being the least Tory

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1682139131965480960?t=s6fbYHKuLsvx30D...

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https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1715209538398191909

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1715211956980785483

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https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390548721243459584

Oof. I realize that this isn't necessarily all Starmer's fault like it's going to be painted as, but still. Not good.

(also, I suppose any other leader wouldn't have been 20 points ahead)

Amazing how good things looked for the Tories just 2 and a half years ago

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As a historical point, I'm surprised the Wilson government had such a horror run of by elections-does that mean they were always going to lose 1970?

Yes they where.

The story of the 70's elections (1970,1974, much less of 1979) was Enoch Powell swinging it to Conservatives in 1970 and to Labour in 1974.

He was a proto-Farage that could destroy Governments he hated with his Populism, over Europe and Immigration.

Yeah you can see how big the swings were in the 1970 Election in this clip . Like they didn’t have exit polls in those days but they were able to tell very early on that Labour was gonna lose

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The last time you had swings as big and consistent as in Mid Bedfordshire, Tamworth and Rutherglen and Hamilton West was in 1945, but if Sunak decided not to run in 2025, the Tories would just acknowledge that he’s been a failed Prime Minister, no?

The problem for the Tories is not Sunak given the bottom fell out for them with Truss and they started to decline in the fall of 2021 under Boris. In fact the Tories would be in better shape today if they just chose Sunak over Truss to begin with even though they would obviously still be losing.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Anyway I read this funny analogy on Reddit. Basically Sunak is Major while Truss was Black Wednesday of this government.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Here is coverage from the same exact by election from 1996: