UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Filuwaúrdjan]

2nd Bundle check. Full recount possible, but administrators apparently disfavor such a move.

They take forever and generally only switch a few votes so are, as a general rule, only permitted when we're talking a bare handful of votes in it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suspect that the answer to a lot of this, yes, is an unexpectedly good result for Labour in the Spen Valley (less Heckmondwike), the sort of numbers they used to poll long ago and far away when it was a very different place to today. In other words, an example of 'It's Not Cricket' syndrome in action: when there's a rallying effect from unlikely quarters towards a candidate subjected to noisy and personally abusive opposition.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is it possible that Labour was second on both the Batley and Spen Valley side of the constituency yet still ahead overall?

Certainly. Though it's slightly more complex than just Batley vs. Spen even if that works as a quick summary: Birstall, though a separate town and generally good territory for the Conservatives, was in Batley MB before the local government deforms of the 1970s while Heckmondwike (a town with remarkably cursed politics: multiple BNP councillors over the years and serious Biradari influence) is in the Spen Valley. It was suggested overnight that Heckmondwike may have been Galloway's strongest part of the constituency, which would certainly be on brand.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It was suggested overnight that Heckmondwike may have been Galloway's strongest part of the constituency, which would certainly be on brand.

Who by?  The Galloway campaign or someone else?

Yes, the Galloway campaign which means, given some of the other things they were saying, a pinch of salt perhaps. This is what is so irritating about the lack of proper local data for British elections: you're left with hearsay and gossip, most of which is questionable.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Did Galloway's campaign appeal to both BNPish and Biradariish currents, or does it just seem "aesthetically" like the sort of campaign that might have? It's hard as a foreign armchair observer to tell to what extent he was running as a Muslim sectional candidate and to what extent he was running as a general-interest turbo#populist maniac.

There is some speculation - particularly from shocked Conservatives* - that he might have taken a small but sizeable chunk of the white far-right vote (and doing so seems to have been part of the plan) along with his more anticipated support, but it's hard to be entirely sure.

_{*To which someone might point out that a) such voters aren't yours even when they are lending you their votes and b) do you necessarily want to be in a position where you're relying on them voting for you?}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

An astounding variety of headlines over the past two days, from the Torygraph stressing the narrowness of the Labour win to the Grauniad presenting it as a resounding upset. Moar liek Banter and Spin amirite?

Particularly impressive as all of that is spontaneous work: an awful lot of copy was pre-written and ready to go but had to be spiked when the result came through...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Would hastily remind everyone that British criminal law does extend to internet discussions and that posting anything that could be argued to prejudice a trial is not a good idea

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Anyway, the Labour Party is pretty well organised in Wakefield district, though it must be admitted that this is truer of the outlying parts than the city itself. It's also one of those places where Labour polled a lot better in the May elections than at the last GE, though, again, particularly outside the city.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All I'm saying is that it would not be a good idea to post anything presuming the guilt of anyone (particularly a public figure) presently facing criminal proceedings. The same would apply to a couple of other honourable members as well. 'Ah but what if x happens' - fine. 'X is clearly guilty so...' - no, do not post this. I make this point because the owner of this forum has a thing about legal issues.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This has been looming for a while. Brokenshire wasn't my cup of tea politically or otherwise, but his death is genuinely very sad.

Anyway, won't indulge in by-election speculation yet, but will quickly point out that this is a very middle class and rather affluent slice of London and that its differences to places like Richmond have nothing to do with the fact that many middle aged residents can claim working class grandparents: this is England, most of the people even in Richmond over fifty will be able to claim at least one. We need to avoid that sort of thing as it leads to very unhelpful misunderstandings of places. It's different because a different sort of middle class person predominates here: this is the land of the Middle Manager not the Higher Professional.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BEXLEY?!

It's nothing like Richmond, unless you are referring to the gated Bexleyheath enclave (not in this constituency). The rest of the borough is most definitely not "rather affluent". I know, I used to work all around there a couple of years ago!

Not 'the entire borough of Bexley' but 'the constituency of Old Bexley and Sidcup', yes. I would certainly not describe Erith as 'rather affluent', but neither it nor similar areas nearby are in this constituency. Which is largely comprised of privately-built, owner-occupied residential suburbs (with one of the lowest percentages of people living in social housing in the GLA area) where most people in employment work in well-paid jobs with a heavy lean towards lower management and administrative/secretarial work. It's humdrum and not at all like Richmond, but is actually a much more 'typical' sort of middle class area. There are exceptions (particularly towards the southern end), but then there are in just about every constituency in the country these days. Most places are a patchwork, most constituencies are artificial constructions, voting for Brexit or having a grandparent born in Rotherhithe in 1904 does not make you working class.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course, it used to be Ted Heath's seat and Labour nearly won it in 1966.

It did used to be Ted Heath's seat, but not until 1974. Before then (and at the time of the '66 election) it was divided between Bexley (Heath's seat) and Chislehurst (which also included a northern slice of what became the London Borough of Bromley from Mottingham out to St Paul's Cray). Essentially it took what were then the best parts of both constituencies for the Tories - a concept more than merely relative back in the days when Labour was much more competitive in humdrum suburbia than is common now - and put them together in one seat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Claudia Webbe (Leicester East) has been convicted of harassment charges. She was elected as a Labour MP but had the whip withdrawn once she faced criminal charges: she will not be getting it back and will presumably be expelled from the party. She has not been sentenced yet, but the maximum sentence for harassment (six months imprisonment) is less than the threshold for automatic disqualification from the Commons, meaning that there will only be a by-election if she resigns or if she is recalled. The former does not seem particularly likely at this stage as she has made noises about a possible appeal.

She was elected in controversial circumstances: an important figure on the Hard Left of the Labour Party for years and a member of the NEC she had previously lost a string of selections before the sudden Fall of Keith Vaz in the runup to the 2019 General Election gave the then-leadership an opportunity to parachute her in to the vacant Leicester East. This went down poorly with the substantial Indian community in the constituency (largely Gujarati Hindu) and, when combined with certain other issues, resulted in a very large swing. Supporters of Vaz continue to control the CLP and Vaz himself is its Chair.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Famously/infamously this was her candidate application form, note no. 5:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Party membership figures by CLP used to be published semi-regularly: I once made a few maps. I don't think this has been done for a while, part of a broader pattern of less transparency in recent years - which has been an issue across successive leaderships. We used to get leadership results by CLP as well!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We used to get leadership results by CLP as well!

How close was the correlation between CLP nominations and results (accounting for help to get on the ballot etc.)?

Strong correlation in some places, absolutely none in others. O/c back then CLP nominations were just endorsements and did not affect ballot access.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What strikes me is that twenty six years separate the murders of Gow and Cox and that that's more than long enough for significant shifts in attitude. I think a big part of it is just that the magic has very much gone out of by-elections. They used to be something that politicians, for the most part, actually rather enjoyed and that the public took a reasonably keen interest in. These days I don't think that anyone really much likes them: they're an ordeal and a chore, even when they go the way one wishes them to. So perhaps there's an element of revealed preference to this: when by-elections were thought of as a critical part of our democracy, allowing their usual function to be over-ridden in response to a political murder would have been seen as giving in on some level. Now that they are not, the reverse is true.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A complicating factor is that there may be more sympathy than usual for Paterson - both at Westminster (relevant because he hasn't been suspended yet: this is just a recommendation) and locally - because of the suicide of his wife last year. He has already been playing this card for all that it is worth, so we shall see.

As for the constituency (which was named for Oswestry, after its largest town, until 1983), it was formed in 1918 and has had only six MPs since, all of them Conservatives. The Conservative nomination has traditionally been controlled by the local NFU, which tells you a few things. The last time any of its predecessors elected a non-Conservative MP was the West Shropshire (sometimes also called Oswestry, but with very different boundaries) constituency at a by-election in 1904 - the seat was then re-gained by the Conservatives in 1906, despite the landslide elsewhere. Long ago and far away, but that's sort of the point. There is a Labour vote here (many of the towns have substantial working class elements due to - especially - food manufacturing employment and there are also some former mining villages north of Oswestry), but the local party collapsed some time ago and there's not much organisation. The Liberals used to have a serious presence, but could never make it stick and that all faded away during the 1990s. These days the Green Party has developed a local government vote in Oswestry town, due to a mix of local factors (read: local corruption and planning scandals) and the organisational weakness of all other non-Conservative forces.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The irony is that one that might well have failed was North Shropshire as it is a rural constituency without a dominant centre, the opposition parties are poorly to barely organised and that, until the farcical scenes of the past week, Paterson would have been able to count on a degree of sympathy due to his personal circumstances.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think it would still have passed even if not as easily as some previous ones, there are surely enough anti-Paterson voters in the towns to get at least close.

It might have edged it, yes. But it would have been quite close.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is a there a farmer vs non-farmer divide in this counstieuncy ?

Farming community (many more people than those directly employed in agriculture) and not, yes. This is extremely productive lowland dairying country, and therefore the farming community is monstrously Tory and has been since they were given the right to vote. There's also a substantial military element, if not to the extent that was the case during the Cold War. The towns are politically and socially mixed: sizeable but not massive market towns with a degree of prosperity in places but also some big estates and more industry (esp. food processing) than outsiders tend to notice.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Tories have chosen Neil Shastri-Hurst as their candidate for North Shropshire.  He's a barrister from Birmingham, so I presume he has some other qualities which make him suitable for a by-election in Shropshire in the present climate.

Military background, which is something that will always go down very well with that particular Conservative Association.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour's candidate for the last few GEs in N Shropshire told he won't be shortlisted - and has stormed out of the party in a huff.

LOL

Let's just say that that is very much in character.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

although I guess this is one of those CLPs with 6 active members, who all hate each other.

And he has very much been part of the problem. The self-importance is amusing. If you're on the record as suggesting that the party ignores the findings and recommendations of a legally-binding statuary investigation, then, no, you won't be selected as a candidate. If you need to have it explained to you why this is the case, then you really have no business being in politics at all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Labour candidate for North Shropshire will be Ben Wood, who is from Oswestry and is in his mid 20s. The Greens have not, I think, selected yet, but are likely to run Duncan Kerr, who is the councillor for the Oswestry South division.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, considering that national polling right now has the government down between six and nine points on the last election and more at the worse end of that than the better, then that's what you'd expect to find.