The previous two posters in your county

[Battista Minola 1616]

Very odd match-up. I suppose VAR would be an moderate-conservative independent supported by the centre-right coalition, while S019 would run for IV or Azione or similar and lead the centre-left coalition.
Since S019 is one of the least #populist candidates imaginable, I think VAR would swoop the M5S vote and not only that, and carry the province of La Spezia 64% - 36%.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Xing and Western Democrat run in the - lmao - Partito Democratico primaries. I am not sure who is a better fit for the province of La Spezia - I would give a slight edge to Xing - but in any case WD sounds more likely to have establishment support so I'd say he wins 58% - 42%.