UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[parochial boy]

The 2017 Locals were before May was finally exposed as the Empress with no clothes though... and even then, whilst the Labour result was bad, it was a lot less bad than the national polls at the time were predicting in the general. I remember thinking at the time that, even allowing for the differences between local and national elections, the result showed that the Tory position was far less unassailable than many people assumed.

I guess I just don't believe voters only ever change their mind once, so May and Tories might become popular again, and whisper it, hero V.I. Corbyn might not win? I am old enough to remember pro-husky pro-sweatshirt hero David Cameron, rubbish at campaigning anti-Greggs Cameron, surprise majority pro-bacon anti-Salmon tactical wizard Cameron, and Brexit loser Cameron.

Who exactly is disputing the above? It seems like it's you and Miles who have came closer in surety of the next GE outcome, because HE SHOULD BE LEADING BY MILES apparently because muh liberalism and of course your time-served knowledge stretches back a whole ten years.

First, the Conservatives are too competent

Wait? Why would you think that? You can say alot about Theresa May, but competent isn't really a vibe she has ever given off. Neither have David Davis, BoJo and friends

[Blair]

Could McDonnell run? He would undoubtedly become a Corbyn stand in, although I guess if Corbs wants to pass the baton to a younger generation he might pass.

Doubt Khan would run, he would risk alienating the Left and therefore his re-election; plus I've never really got the vibe he wants it.

I mean he's not briefing/being obvious about it if he is. Whereas Thornberry/Raynor/Pidock have all had their names in Labours various media organs as future leaders. He's a bit too Ken Livingstone

He's also despised by a vast majority of MPs including those on the left; even Dianne Abbott hates him apparently

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Edward Pearce has died (78). An unusually perceptive political journalist of a type that no longer really exists now - as in he was an intelligent man with a wide cultural hinterland who could write coherent sentences - and an occasional Labour parliamentary candidate (1966 and 1974). Unfortunately also prone to occasional bouts of extremely tedious contrarianism, but, as I often say, consistency is overrated. He was also a very fine obituarist.

[Blair]

He's also despised by a vast majority of MPs including those on the left; even Dianne Abbott hates him apparently

The first claim is obviously true, but where does the second come from? Google isn't helping a boy out today.

I would've thought that he and Abbott would be pretty close because of their mutual connection with Corbyn, with Abbott being's Jezza's ex-girlfriend and McDonnell being one of his closest longtime friends. And no, there's nothing wrong with gossiping about the intimate relationships of old socialists from countries I've never been to.

I did a long post on this but forgot to post it and closed the tab. But to keep it brief; Abbott is much more pro-EU, and pro-immigration than McDonnell. IIRC Abbott is seen as a bit of a sell out by the old hard left cause she moderated a tiny bit back in the 80s to get selected for her seat.

Hate was probably the wrong word but her and JM aren't close; iirc I think she forced John out of the leadership race in 2010 as well.

It's all academic tho cause Abbott has no sway on either the PLP or the wider party

[EPG]

The 2017 Locals were before May was finally exposed as the Empress with no clothes though... and even then, whilst the Labour result was bad, it was a lot less bad than the national polls at the time were predicting in the general. I remember thinking at the time that, even allowing for the differences between local and national elections, the result showed that the Tory position was far less unassailable than many people assumed.

I guess I just don't believe voters only ever change their mind once, so May and Tories might become popular again, and whisper it, hero V.I. Corbyn might not win? I am old enough to remember pro-husky pro-sweatshirt hero David Cameron, rubbish at campaigning anti-Greggs Cameron, surprise majority pro-bacon anti-Salmon tactical wizard Cameron, and Brexit loser Cameron.

Who exactly is disputing the above? It seems like it's you and Miles who have came closer in surety of the next GE outcome, because HE SHOULD BE LEADING BY MILES apparently because muh liberalism and of course your time-served knowledge stretches back a whole ten years.

First, the Conservatives are too competent

Wait? Why would you think that? You can say alot about Theresa May, but competent isn't really a vibe she has ever given off. Neither have David Davis, BoJo and friends

They have done nothing to alienate their voters, and are at little risk of paralysis. They don't care about Labour/LD partisans or the woke, though.

[Blair]

Well the Tories clearly have alienated there voters cause they lost Canterbury for the first time in what 100 years?

[Silent Hunter]

In the department of "perhaps this particular mud will stick", Corbyn has been accused of being a Communist spy

[IceAgeComing]

They have done nothing to alienate their voters, and are at little risk of paralysis. They don't care about Labour/LD partisans or the woke, though.

Canterbury hadn't elected a non-Tory MP since 1868 (it was a two member seat; elected a Liberal and an Independent Conservative) until 2017 when Labour gained it on a 9.3% swing.  Brighton Kemptown was held by the Tories between 2010 and 2017 and seemed to have developed into a key marginal seat: its now Labour by 10,000 votes after a 10.8% swing from the Tories to them.  Enfield Southgate was most likely Tory since forever other than 1997 and 2001 (which were Labour landslides so a little odd); Labour gained it on a 10% swing.  Peterborough has historically only been held by Labour when they've been in government (1929; 1945, October 74, 1997-2001) other than 2017 when Labour gained it.  Hove was held by the Tories forever before 1997 and they held it between 2010 and 2015 and the incumbent Labour MP was defending a 1,200 majority: they held the seat by 20,000 votes - a 15% swing from the Tories to Labour.  There are plenty of examples of seats like this in 2017: Labour gaining some seats that they only tend to win if they form government, some on very large swings equivalent to what they managed in the 1997 election.

Sure the Tories gained votes in the last election - but Labour gained more and the impact of that in a two-party state is that you effectively have a swing to Labour from the Tories (of something like 2%).  It was clear early in the election that we were shifting towards a two-party system in England and Wales; the Tories went all in on getting as many 2015 UKIP votes as possible and ignoring the fact that there are plenty of Liberals who'd willingly have voted Tory if they saw them as a better option to Labour and the 2017 Tory campaign convinced them that they weren't.  They got 60% of 2015 UKIP voters (18% stayed with UKIP and 16% Labour) but that was geographically distributed in such a way where it tended to run up Tory majorities in, say, Basildon while not helping them gain more votes than Labour managed to get in those Brexit-voting marginals that they were going for.  When you factor in the fact that Labour gained the above mentioned seats - some with huge majorities! - and a factor in that was Tory voters not voting or voting for someone else because of their dissatisfaction with the Tory campaign and the government and I don't see how you can say with a straight face that they did nothing to alienate their voters.

There's also the fact that if the post-election demographic polling is correct: things... aren't great for the Tories long term.  Using Ipsos-Mori data for this as that tends to be what you use for these things: there's a massive age divide building with Labour being +35% with 18-25 year olds; and the Tories +36% with 65+.  That breaks down by class as well: all social classes under 35 voted Labour by a big margin (Labour got 52% of young ABs which is, well, not normal, those people should be your young Tories) while the Tories got all classes 55+ - including the working class.  Not to say that a class divide doesn't still exist because it does: but it seems like in 2017 the age split was much stronger.  The issue is that a younger base naturally benefits Labour here: the Tories need to convert people to vote for them if they want to win the next election; and younger people are less likely to agree with the sort of old fashioned policies (even little things like BLUE PASSPORTS) designed to appeal to people who've got a falsely rosy memory of the 1950s.  Its also hard for governments - especially governments like the Tories who've been in office for seven years and 'won' three straight elections - to build that support while in government.  That age divide began to display itself in 2015 so its not even a Brexit thing - although I think the same factors that developed it then and deepen it now also contributed to the EU referendum result - and the current Tory party which is very insular and out of step with most younger people - even the few young Tories - on things like migration and Europe makes it harder still for them to get that support.  They can't even rely on attacking the last Labour government anymore: they left office eight years ago and it'll be at least nine by the time that the next election happens and by that point it just looks desperate.

Incidentally 26% of 2017 Tory voters voted Remain so your implication that those people aren't Tories isn't actually true as that's a pretty significant chunk.  There are a surprisingly large number of 'woke' Tories, especially when you get into the centre of cities and those are the places where the Conservatives have been hemmoraging seats, with the party arrogantly assuming that they'd just displace Labour in safe Labour seats to replace them.

[mvd10]

They have done nothing to alienate their voters, and are at little risk of paralysis. They don't care about Labour/LD partisans or the woke, though.

Canterbury hadn't elected a non-Tory MP since 1868 (it was a two member seat; elected a Liberal and an Independent Conservative) until 2017 when Labour gained it on a 9.3% swing.  Brighton Kemptown was held by the Tories between 2010 and 2017 and seemed to have developed into a key marginal seat: its now Labour by 10,000 votes after a 10.8% swing from the Tories to them.  Enfield Southgate was most likely Tory since forever other than 1997 and 2001 (which were Labour landslides so a little odd); Labour gained it on a 10% swing.  Peterborough has historically only been held by Labour when they've been in government (1929; 1945, October 74, 1997-2001) other than 2017 when Labour gained it.  Hove was held by the Tories forever before 1997 and they held it between 2010 and 2015 and the incumbent Labour MP was defending a 1,200 majority: they held the seat by 20,000 votes - a 15% swing from the Tories to Labour.  There are plenty of examples of seats like this in 2017: Labour gaining some seats that they only tend to win if they form government, some on very large swings equivalent to what they managed in the 1997 election.

Sure the Tories gained votes in the last election - but Labour gained more and the impact of that in a two-party state is that you effectively have a swing to Labour from the Tories (of something like 2%).  It was clear early in the election that we were shifting towards a two-party system in England and Wales; the Tories went all in on getting as many 2015 UKIP votes as possible and ignoring the fact that there are plenty of Liberals who'd willingly have voted Tory if they saw them as a better option to Labour and the 2017 Tory campaign convinced them that they weren't.  They got 60% of 2015 UKIP voters (18% stayed with UKIP and 16% Labour) but that was geographically distributed in such a way where it tended to run up Tory majorities in, say, Basildon while not helping them gain more votes than Labour managed to get in those Brexit-voting marginals that they were going for.  When you factor in the fact that Labour gained the above mentioned seats - some with huge majorities! - and a factor in that was Tory voters not voting or voting for someone else because of their dissatisfaction with the Tory campaign and the government and I don't see how you can say with a straight face that they did nothing to alienate their voters.

There's also the fact that if the post-election demographic polling is correct: things... aren't great for the Tories long term.  Using Ipsos-Mori data for this as that tends to be what you use for these things: there's a massive age divide building with Labour being +35% with 18-25 year olds; and the Tories +36% with 65+.  That breaks down by class as well: all social classes under 35 voted Labour by a big margin (Labour got 52% of young ABs which is, well, not normal, those people should be your young Tories) while the Tories got all classes 55+ - including the working class.  Not to say that a class divide doesn't still exist because it does: but it seems like in 2017 the age split was much stronger.  The issue is that a younger base naturally benefits Labour here: the Tories need to convert people to vote for them if they want to win the next election; and younger people are less likely to agree with the sort of old fashioned policies (even little things like BLUE PASSPORTS) designed to appeal to people who've got a falsely rosy memory of the 1950s.  Its also hard for governments - especially governments like the Tories who've been in office for seven years and 'won' three straight elections - to build that support while in government.  That age divide began to display itself in 2015 so its not even a Brexit thing - although I think the same factors that developed it then and deepen it now also contributed to the EU referendum result - and the current Tory party which is very insular and out of step with most younger people - even the few young Tories - on things like migration and Europe makes it harder still for them to get that support.  They can't even rely on attacking the last Labour government anymore: they left office eight years ago and it'll be at least nine by the time that the next election happens and by that point it just looks desperate.

Incidentally 26% of 2017 Tory voters voted Remain so your implication that those people aren't Tories isn't actually true as that's a pretty significant chunk.  There are a surprisingly large number of 'woke' Tories, especially when you get into the centre of cities and those are the places where the Conservatives have been hemmoraging seats, with the party arrogantly assuming that they'd just displace Labour in safe Labour seats to replace them.

Are those young AB voters really natural young Tories? I remember a YouGov poll that showed Tories made massive almost no gains among ABC1 voters and/or university-educated voters, but the Tory gains were roughly equal among all income groups. I imagine a lot of young university educated voters work in fields that aren't necessarily Tory-friendly, and they may not even be that wealthy. Still, I agree that the Tories have a huge problem with young voters and (former?) Tory remain constituencies.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's definitely a notable age-issue in voting preferences at the moment, but a degree of caution needs to be used when combining with the ABCDE figures - they're bad enough in themselves (outdated and often perverse), but there are additional problems in this context: i.e. most pensioners are categorised as DE because polling firms are lazy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, this is relevant to the discussion above:



A lot of right-wing arguments Online about British political trends basically amount to pure fantasy. This land is not Ohio.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Dying LolKip selects Batten as interim leader.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Cornwall, East Anglia and the Kent Coast really stand out on that map for me.

[GoTfan]

Has anyone heard The Sun and Daily Telegraph claim that Corbyn was a Communist spy?

[Blair]

Has anyone heard The Sun and Daily Telegraph claim that Corbyn was a Communist spy?

Yes it's bullsh**t. The allegations aren't even that he's a spy but rather a source from the 1980s... as if had anything to offer in 1984. It's no different to the CIA/MI6 talking to some random dissidents in the USSR or Eastern bloc.

Everyone knows Corbyn dislikes UK foreign policy so this is easy to brush off.

The fact that on Monday the Tories are set to cut student fees really shows the impact JC has had; Tories have given up the economic argument

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Most of the MPs who genuinely were on the books of foreign intelligence agencies mostly just gave them useless information - often publicly available - in exchange for cash. Will Owen (Labour MP for Morpeth 1954-70) built a lavish lifestyle for himself off selling useless information to the Czechs; his handlers nicknamed him the greedy pig. The only one who has been named and confirmed and who gave valuable information (e.g. a detailed floorplan of the inside of No. 10) was Ray Mawby, a Conservative MP for a seat in Devon. He would have been easily exposed at the time if ever investigated, but he wasn't because MI5 assumed that only Labour MPs could be spies!

[mileslunn]

Anyway, this is relevant to the discussion above:



A lot of right-wing arguments Online about British political trends basically amount to pure fantasy. This land is not Ohio.

Cannot read what the map is about so what do the colour codes mean here?

[GoTfan]

Has anyone heard The Sun and Daily Telegraph claim that Corbyn was a Communist spy?

Yes it's bullsh**t. The allegations aren't even that he's a spy but rather a source from the 1980s... as if had anything to offer in 1984. It's no different to the CIA/MI6 talking to some random dissidents in the USSR or Eastern bloc.

Everyone knows Corbyn dislikes UK foreign policy so this is easy to brush off.

The fact that on Monday the Tories are set to cut student fees really shows the impact JC has had; Tories have given up the economic argument

I thought it was bollocks. Just wanted confirmation from a UK citizen.

[Blair]

My favourite story of the week is that a Tory MP Andrew Bridgen has reported Keith Vaz to the police for having too many houses. Wish I was joking. I seem to recall there have some sort of feud.

My more grim story is that as I just read that Leo Abse, one of the most high profile campaigners for homosexual equality in the 1960s was accused of child sexual abuse. The story is 3-4 years old, but only read it for the first time. Likewise discovered that the former Speaker George Thomas was apparently also up to the same.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Truss is my favourite Tory tbh

[Blair]

Indeed few people knew that Marston Moore was fought to liberate burger vans!

Sadly though she's clearly running. She's hired some 25 year SPAD who understands instagram and wants to run as some sort of Michael Portillo 'Who Dares wins' crap about how great capitalism is. To think she was justice secretary

[DC Al Fine]

Anyway, this is relevant to the discussion above:



A lot of right-wing arguments Online about British political trends basically amount to pure fantasy. This land is not Ohio.

Cannot read what the map is about so what do the colour codes mean here?

Tory vote compared to Leave vote. Orange heavy Leave, light Tory. Blue is the opposite.

[Silent Hunter]

Most of the MPs who genuinely were on the books of foreign intelligence agencies mostly just gave them useless information - often publicly available - in exchange for cash. Will Owen (Labour MP for Morpeth 1954-70) built a lavish lifestyle for himself off selling useless information to the Czechs; his handlers nicknamed him the greedy pig. The only one who has been named and confirmed and who gave valuable information (e.g. a detailed floorplan of the inside of No. 10) was Ray Mawby, a Conservative MP for a seat in Devon. He would have been easily exposed at the time if ever investigated, but he wasn't because MI5 assumed that only Labour MPs could be spies!

The Stasi foreign intelligence wing destroyed 90% of its particular archive and the stuff we have from the KGB (whose books are still closed) via Mitrokhin only goes up to his retirement in 1984, so some other people might still be out there.

Not suggesting Corbyn is one of them - I think he should sue for libel.

[EPG]

There's definitely a notable age-issue in voting preferences at the moment, but a degree of caution needs to be used when combining with the ABCDE figures - they're bad enough in themselves (outdated and often perverse), but there are additional problems in this context: i.e. most pensioners are categorised as DE because polling firms are lazy.

Exactly. It is better to make small claims and be careful than big ones based on numberology.

That latter way leads to cherry-picking unusually interesting numbers, like considering Canterbury (nowadays home to many students) instead of the UK as a whole.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If anybody wants to ever amuse themselves, type "UKIP councillor" into Google News. They've lost their 17 strong branch in Thurrock, they've spectacularly cocked up Thanet and seem to be in a state of collapse in every the councils covering every other target seat they had.