MA-1: Morse accused of inappropriate sexual relations with college students

[Zaybay]

At first I was shocked that Morse was going the "burn it all down" route of arguing it was a hit.

But now......I'm honestly not sure what to think.

[Zaybay]

Yeah, if what the Intercept says is true, which seems likely after the collaboration from Panetta, then this is truly disgusting.

All of this retching behavior for an internship.

[Zaybay]

I support Neal for purely ideological reasons, but the allegations are clearly a hitjob by a bunch of privileged students who want to be politicians.

"Ideological" man's an old Irish Catholic machine politician whose main concern is getting rich - what "ideology" could y'all possibly share?
This district got cratered by opiods while Neal took boatloads of cash from pharma - what "ideology" do you share with that?

People are allowed to favor different policies and incumbents in these kinda races. It's perfectly fine to vote for Neal due to the fact that he may be closer to you in ideological terms.

It's not very fine to vote for Neal cause you believe the allegations, especially after all the follow-up news that came out.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1295441863181295623?s=21


Full poll: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tCdGPejbbxmgWQo4ZBnT7Wf4slflgU2r/view

[Zaybay]

Shameful that the homophobic smear campaign dragged a promising candidate through the mud.

Here's hoping Morse comes back in 2022 and annihilates Neal.

High probability that redistricting removes some of the more progressive Morse-friendly towns from this district and Neal becomes even safer

That'd be incredibly difficult to do. Many of Morse's best towns were from Berkshire county, which borders Vermont. It'd be very difficult to finagle MA-01 and MA-02 to get rid of these towns, especially since both seats need to expand eastward.

It's much more likely that Neal's seat becomes less safe for him after redistricting just due to population trends, not vice versa.

[Zaybay]

Shameful that the homophobic smear campaign dragged a promising candidate through the mud.

Here's hoping Morse comes back in 2022 and annihilates Neal.

High probability that redistricting removes some of the more progressive Morse-friendly towns from this district and Neal becomes even safer

That'd be incredibly difficult to do. Many of Morse's best towns were from Berkshire county, which borders Vermont. It'd be very difficult to finagle MA-01 and MA-02 to get rid of these towns, especially since both seats need to expand eastward.

It's much more likely that Neal's seat becomes less safe for him after redistricting just due to population trends, not vice versa.

Most of Morse's best towns were in Franklin and Hampshire Counties, and can easily be added to MA-2 (where they would be a good fit for Jim McGovern). The question is, what MA-2 towns do you add to MA-1 to make up for it, especially when Neal's district probably needs to expand to keep up with population trends? I think Belchertown, Ware, and parts of Worcester County are the obvious choices. It might cut into McGovern's Worcester base, but his pre-2013 district didn't include all of the Worcester area either.

The issue to this is population trends though.
https://population-map.districtbuilder.org/

According to the 2018 census estimates, Neal's seat is going to need about 30K new voters. MA-02, on the other hand, is going to need 12K new voters. The issue that I brought up is that, just simply due to population changes, Neal is going to get voters who are either:
A. Hostile to him to begin with, as is with Franklin, Hampshire, and a large portion of Berkshire
B. Have no connection to Neal at all, as the voters in Worcester county would be

Neither of these groups are good from a primary perspective, especially since Neal's base is extremely Hampden county-centric.

[Zaybay]

Shameful that the homophobic smear campaign dragged a promising candidate through the mud.

Here's hoping Morse comes back in 2022 and annihilates Neal.

High probability that redistricting removes some of the more progressive Morse-friendly towns from this district and Neal becomes even safer

That'd be incredibly difficult to do. Many of Morse's best towns were from Berkshire county, which borders Vermont. It'd be very difficult to finagle MA-01 and MA-02 to get rid of these towns, especially since both seats need to expand eastward.

It's much more likely that Neal's seat becomes less safe for him after redistricting just due to population trends, not vice versa.

Most of Morse's best towns were in Franklin and Hampshire Counties, and can easily be added to MA-2 (where they would be a good fit for Jim McGovern). The question is, what MA-2 towns do you add to MA-1 to make up for it, especially when Neal's district probably needs to expand to keep up with population trends? I think Belchertown, Ware, and parts of Worcester County are the obvious choices. It might cut into McGovern's Worcester base, but his pre-2013 district didn't include all of the Worcester area either.

The issue to this is population trends though.
https://population-map.districtbuilder.org/

According to the 2018 census estimates, Neal's seat is going to need about 30K new voters. MA-02, on the other hand, is going to need 12K new voters. The issue that I brought up is that, just simply due to population changes, Neal is going to get voters who are either:
A. Hostile to him to begin with, as is with Franklin, Hampshire, and a large portion of Berkshire
B. Have no connection to Neal at all, as the voters in Worcester county would be

Neither of these groups are good from a primary perspective, especially since Neal's base is extremely Hampden county-centric.

It's not true that those areas of Worcester County have no connection to Neal; they were part of his district pre-2012. It's also not true that Berkshire County is hostile to Neal: while Morse won some towns there (in the far south which can't exactly be redistricted out), he lost the county by only a slightly smaller margin than the district as a whole.

I made this map to show how Neal's base can be solidified using the 2018 population numbers:

1. Just because the same towns were in Neal's district does not mean that they have some sort of connection to him. If these towns were in Hampden county, then I would agree that these places would be favorable to Neal, but these towns are so far away from his power base and have been away from him for a decade. These are also towns that, historically, Neal has had issues with.

2. I did not claim that Berkshire county is hostile to Neal: he won it afterall. What I did claim was that a large portion of the district seems to despise Neal no matter what. Looking to previous primaries, a good portion of the county seems to reflexively vote against him, with Pittsfield keeping Berkshire loyal. This base of voters can't be removed.

3. I do like your map. This isn't a critique, I just really like it. MA-07 is a bit janky, but otherwise it looks great!

4. Just going back to the beginning, Neal is and always was a Hampden county Democrat. That's always been his base, and they've continued to stick by him. With Hampden county's relative decline in population compared to the state, however, Neal is going to need to take in territory that he inherently does not have a connection with. It may not be enough to pose a serious threat, hell Neal may just retire in 2022 and this whole point will be moot, but it will still be unfriendly turf.