May 24 Washington state prediction thread

[IceSpear]

The real question: Will Bernie do better or worse than in Oregon? WA is not fully closed and is also more favorable turf than OR, but on the flip side nobody cares about it which will disproportionately impact young people, his best demographic.

Bernie- 54.7
Hillary- 45.3

Trump- 64
Kasich-19
Cruz- 17


I expect Bernie to perform worse in Oregon than Washington in the beauty contest.

1.) Metro Seattle is less favorable than Portland, which has a much larger blue-collar and working-class component, and significantly lower household incomes. I would not be surprised to see Hillary win Snohomish and possibly Pierce County as well.
2.) Much of rural and small-town Western and Eastern Washington should track closer to Oregon Primary results, although some doubts about Bernie margins in Clark and Spokane counties.
3.) Looking at Oregon primary votes there was a significant percentage of ballots in heavily Bernie counties, particularly with a large number of young voters, where there were no votes recorded for down-ballot candidates. I expect there to be some Bernie voters that don't bother doing the beauty contest figuring that he already won the lion's share of statewide delegates.
4.) It is true that Washington now having "vote by mail" for the primary and also a looser party affiliation method means that this might counterbalance the effect of potential Hillary upsets in several of the larger non-Seattle metro counties, but I don't see King county voting for Bernie at higher margins than Multnomah and quite frankly expect to see numbers 2-3% lower.

So yeah, agree WA not being fully closed helps some, but disagree that the demographics are more favorable.

Good points.

[sportydude]

On the Democrat side I'll go out on a limb and say:

Hillary: 51%
Bernie: 49%

There is no reason to expect a Clinton victory here.

Really? Clinton performed in all closed primaries distinctly better than in 2008. Even in Oregon!
Furthermore, a "fake primary" doesn't attract many Bernie Bros., as you could see in Nebraska, where she won the closed fake primary distinctly.
I wouldn't bet any money, but I wouldn't be surprised either (after Nebraska) if Clinton really wins the Washington fake primary.

I'm now going to accept my accolades!

[Holmes]

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[sportydude]

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Thank you! At least one person who appreciates my work.

[dax00]

Trump 76%
Cruz 12%
Kasich 10%
Result: Trump 41, Uncommitted 3

I will now accept my accolades.

[sportydude]

Trump 76%
Cruz 12%
Kasich 10%
Result: Trump 41, Uncommitted 3

I will now accept my accolades.

Wow! Not bad...

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