Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Tender Branson]

Good points, Tender.

Today's peil.nl poll shows that the PVV lost 3 more seats. Still no VVD recovery either, and the momentum lies with CDA, GL and SP.

With the way this is going, they might end up 3rd, 4th or 5th ...

Or, there's a last-minute election day surge for them because of the Turkish agitation.

[DavidB.]

Tomorrow there will be a one-on-one debate between Rutte and Wilders in EenVandaag, and the evening before the election an NOS debate with eight party leaders including Wilders will take place.

[seb_pard]

From what I read Aboutaleb was very vocal against Erdogan yesterday. Could that help him in the post-Asscher PvdA?

[DavidB.]

From what I read Aboutaleb was very vocal against Erdogan yesterday. Could that help him in the post-Asscher PvdA?

Yeah, and he is already pretty popular. I'd say it is rather likely Aboutaleb will lead the PvdA someday in the future. If he wants to, he can do it. But I expect Asscher to stay on as PvdA leader even after their collapse.

[windjammer]

If CDA ends up first, they should make a coalition with VVD, PVV, 50+ and SGP (it has the majority of seats). I suppose that some "deceived" PVV and 50+ would vote for them for the next election, consolidating their place as first party.

That's not going to happen and if CDA does decide to do it, the next election would be a total disaster for CDA, like the 2012 election.

It was a total disaster for the CDA because they were the minor coalition partner, it would have been totally different if they were the leading coalition party.

And yes of course that won't happen, they should though

Why should the CDA ally with a man who double crossed them last time they worked together?

Because they would get additional votes this time as the major coalition partner?

[DavidB.]

[Zinneke]

If CDA ends up first, they should make a coalition with VVD, PVV, 50+ and SGP (it has the majority of seats). I suppose that some "deceived" PVV and 50+ would vote for them for the next election, consolidating their place as first party.

That's not going to happen and if CDA does decide to do it, the next election would be a total disaster for CDA, like the 2012 election.

It was a total disaster for the CDA because they were the minor coalition partner, it would have been totally different if they were the leading coalition party.

And yes of course that won't happen, they should though

Why should the CDA ally with a man who double crossed them last time they worked together?

Because they would get additional votes this time as the major coalition partner?

How? Let's say hypothetically the government is formed of PVV-VVD-CDA, with religious party support (I doubt the CU would join, and they would still find the 1rst chamber hard to get past), a repeat of 2010. Under what circumstances are CDA not the most vulnerable to defection to the Left of them?

[ilikeverin]

For our Dutch posters

As someone who took a year of Turkish but does not know any Dutch, this poster was exceedingly confusing!

[DavidB.]

Hahahahaha.

[America Needs R'hllor]

is there any party which wishes to compromise?

DENK "want both Rutte and Erdogan to de-escalate" and haven't publicly picked a side. They cannot afford to piss off their supporters and probably don't think it was a problem for Turkish ministers to come to the Netherlands and campaign for a "yes" vote in the first place. All other parties are in agreement with the government. D66 and SP have been especially vocal about their stance.

Meanwhile, Rutte stated that he wants Erdogan to apologize for his remarks about the Netherlands being a Nazi country, contradicting FM Koenders' earlier statement that asking for apologies would not be useful. Erdogan just called the Netherlands a "banana republic" and said the international community should consider sanctions against us.

The Netherlands is obviously a banana republic because it has a thriving, competitive democracy. Totally weird, the international community must investigate.

[MAINEiac4434]

For our Dutch posters

I like the faux Turkish.

[Beezer]

Just priceless...



Feels like a YouTube comments section is now running Turkey.

[jeron]

If CDA ends up first, they should make a coalition with VVD, PVV, 50+ and SGP (it has the majority of seats). I suppose that some "deceived" PVV and 50+ would vote for them for the next election, consolidating their place as first party.

That's not going to happen and if CDA does decide to do it, the next election would be a total disaster for CDA, like the 2012 election.

It was a total disaster for the CDA because they were the minor coalition partner, it would have been totally different if they were the leading coalition party.

It was a disaster because many CDA members and voters did not want CDA to cooperate with PVV. So when they did, the party was divided. The party would be even more divided right now because of what happened in 2012 and because CDA vowed not to cooperate with PVV again. I'm sure voters would not be forgiving.

[freek]

LISS poll:



(daily poll, poll result is the average of the last 7 days).

[Tender Branson]

Tender's prediction:

27 seats - VVD
25 seats - PVV
24 seats - CDA
17 seats - D66
15 seats - SP
14 seats - GL
11 seats - PvdA
  5 seats - CU
  4 seats - 50+
  3 seats - SGP
  2 seats - PvdD
  3 seats - Others

Turnout: 73.2% (-1.4)

[DavidB.]

My current expectation would be VVD 25, CDA 22, PVV 22, D66 19, GL 18, SP 15, PvdA 11, CU 5, 50Plus 5, SGP 3, PvdD 3, DENK 1, FvD 1 with ~72% turnout, but I'll wait until after Tuesday night's debate before making a final prediction.

On the diplomatic row with Turkey it is worth noting that according to Bild, Rutte had requested that Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu only visit the Netherlands after our election on Wednesday, which means Rutte's supposedly principled opposition to Turkish politicians campaigning in the Netherlands was about as valuable or sincere as his broken promises in 2012.

[mvd10]

My current prediction is this:

VVD 28
PVV 23
CDA 21
GroenLinks 18
D66 17
SP 12
PvdA 12
CU 6
SGP 4
PvdD 3
50PLUS 3
Others 3

I think tonight's debate and the row with Turkey will help the VVD and to a lesser extent the PVV. But like David I'll wait until after the debates before I make a final decision.

[jaichind]

Tender's prediction:

27 seats - VVD
25 seats - PVV
24 seats - CDA
17 seats - D66
15 seats - SP
14 seats - GL
11 seats - PvdA
  5 seats - CU
  4 seats - 50+
  3 seats - SGP
  2 seats - PvdD
  3 seats - Others

Turnout: 73.2% (-1.4)

You think between FvD and DENK can win 3 seats?  I can see DENK winning a seat, I would think FvD voters would end up voting tactically for VVD.

[Bumaye]

It's time for predictions already? Well, here we go:  
  
  
VVD: 27 Seats  
PVV: 23 Seats  
CDA: 21 Seats  
GL: 19 Seats  
D66: 19 Seats  
SP: 15 Seats  
PvdA: 10 Seats  
50+: 4 Seats  
CU: 4 Seats  
SGP: 3 Seats  
PvdD: 3 Seats  
DENK: 1 Seat  
FvD: 1 Seat  

[DavidB.]

Tender's prediction:

27 seats - VVD
25 seats - PVV
24 seats - CDA
17 seats - D66
15 seats - SP
14 seats - GL
11 seats - PvdA
  5 seats - CU
  4 seats - 50+
  3 seats - SGP
  2 seats - PvdD
  3 seats - Others

Turnout: 73.2% (-1.4)

You think between FvD and DENK can win 3 seats?  I can see DENK winning a seat, I would think FvD voters would end up voting tactically for VVD.

Almost nobody who currently intends to vote FvD is going to end up voting for the VVD; at the point where people vote FvD they've long passed the point where they could still vote VVD. It is much more likely these people end up voting PVV after the final debate if Wilders does well. DENK winning two seats doesn't seem such a strange prediction to me. Surely Erdogan-supporting Turks will be inclined to vote DENK right now, and they may be underpolled too. Of course, VNL could win a seat too. I oppose including an "others" category and would instead prefer for people to make separate predictions for the parties that are around 0.67%, makes it more fun

[jaichind]

Even though I do not know that much about Netherlands politics, here is my

VVD  28
PVV  24
CDA  19
D66  18
GL    16
PvdA 13
SP    13
CU     6
SGP   5
50+   4
PvdD  3
DENK 1

[DavidB.]

Just priceless...



Feels like a YouTube comments section is now running Turkey.

Everyone acquainted with Dutch politics knows that Wilders is into cats instead


^ with his feral friend Lola (RIP)

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday in Rotterdam and Amsterdam:

Violent Turks kicking Dutch police officers on the ground while chanting "Allah is great !" and holding Turkish flags and chanting slogans in support of their fanboy and dictator Erdogan, while verbally and physically abusing their home country Netherlands ...

[MAINEiac4434]

Yesterday in Rotterdam and Amsterdam:

Violent Turks kicking Dutch police officers on the ground while chanting "Allah is great !" and holding Turkish flags and chanting slogans in support of their fanboy and dictator Erdogan, while verbally and physically abusing their home country Netherlands ...

What is this 5th column still doing there ? Get the f**k out of Holland and back to Turkey, where you fu**ing a**holes belong !

Stop helping wilders ffs

[windjammer]

My prediction: PVV will get 76 seats