Portugal's politics and elections

[windjammer]

New poll from Eurosondagem fro SIC and Expresso.



Conducted between 7 and 14 December. Polled 1,011 voters. MoE of 3.07%

http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-12-16-Sondagem-PS-aumenta-distancia-para-PSD-e-CDS-somados

So Costa is popular ?

[windjammer]

IPOM poll for the 2017 local election in the municipality of Paredes (PSD incumbent)

1st option, if PSD candidate is Joaquim Neves
24.2% PSD
22.4% PS
  2.3% CDU
  1.9% CDS
  5.0% Oth/Inv
  7.6% DR
28.6% DK
  7.9% Abstention

2nd option, if PSD candidate is Rui Moutinho
24.6% PS
17.3% PSD
  2.6% CDU
  3.6% CDS
  5.0% Oth/Inv
  7.8% DR
33.7% DK
  5.5% Abstention

The poll was conducted before the elections in the local PSD Paredes which were won by Rui Moutinho by a 53% to 47% margin. It's expected be will be the official candidate, but according to local newspapers he was not the favorite candidate of the current mayor Celso Ferreira, which is barred for reelection because of term limits, so anything could still happen. Still to early to say who is going to win this but Paredes could swing to the PS this time around, particularly because in 2013 the PSD only won by 0.16%.

More info here:
http://www.erc.pt/pt/sondagens/publicitacao-de-sondagens/depositos-de-2016/estudo-sociopolitico-no-concelho-de-paredes-20161221-200546

http://verdadeiroolhar.pt/2016/12/05/rui-moutinho-novo-presidente-da-comissao-politica-do-psd-paredes/

Who is DK?

[windjammer]

If PS gets absolute majority, would the coalition with the far left parties continue to exist.

[windjammer]

Ok guys, update.

Every month, i will publish a poll of polls of the voting intentions of the Portuguese electorate to the Assembly of the Republic. I will post the results of the poll average from this page. They weight polls by how recent they are and by the number of people polled. It has also a seat calculator if anyone is interested.



Poll of Polls March 2017:


Some observations:

The PS is, at the moment, polling very strong and leading by double digits the PSD (11.7%). The PSD stands at 28% and adding the CDS at 6.5%, the conservative coalition stands at around 35%. They won 38.6% in 2015. Both BE and CDU are losing voters and MP's to PS while PAN continues to poll quite strongly for a 6th party.
Also if the PSD/CDS were still a coalition they would elect 93 MP's; the PS 105; BE 17; CDU 14 and PAN 1.

Enjoy!

Looks great, thank you

[windjammer]

It seems to me BE would be more willing to enter into a government than the other far-leftwing party, am I right?

[windjammer]

Well, honestly, it seems to me that the PS government has a solid record. If I were Portuguese, I would definitely vote for them under Costa.

What are BE's views on Europe?

[windjammer]

Well, honestly, it seems to me that the PS government has a solid record. If I were Portuguese, I would definitely vote for them under Costa.

What are BE's views on Europe?

Costa has been quite a moderate PM. He hasn't change any major law done by the previous PSD/CDS government, he has been following strictly Brussels demands of a lowering the deficit and the economy has been booming. Now, Costa has said NO to many BE/CDU proposals like re-nationalizations, scraping the current labour code or more public investment. In fact, the welfare state, particularly the NHS and Education, have been Costa's negative side, as there is protests, and accusations, that the government has been neglecting it. The leftwing parties, and also PSD/CDS, accuse Mário Centeno of hijacking the ministers of Health and Education, who are the most unpopular ministers in Costa's government, by cutting funds to the Health service and the Education system.

The BE is not full anti-Europe, like PCP, but they are very critical of the political/economic line of the EU. They say Portugal should not follow the budget treaty, that Portugal should prepare itself for the eventual fall of the EU and of the Euro, etc. Centeno's new job as Eurogroup President is something the BE hasn't appreciate, for example.

I read that Costa stopped austerity?

[windjammer]

I wouldn't be surprised about a PS-BE coalition

[windjammer]

I wouldn't be surprised about a PS-BE coalition

That's the most likely outcome in the event of a PS minority, although Costa, in the event of a PS/BE coalition, would have to make a very difficult decision: Should BE have seats in the cabinet? Half of the PS would freak out about this, plus it could cost Centeno's job in the Eurogroup, as the BE could demand that Centeno shouldn't be the Finance Minister. Would Costa take that risk? I doubt it.

But Costa is extremely lucky. The fact his opposition is divided and in almost civil war, makes his chances of getting a majority grew by the day. A few months ago i wouldn't believe that a PS majority was possible, but, currently it's almost a 50/50 chance.

I'm not sure him getting an absolute majority is the best scenario.

Based on some empirical evidences in Europe, a coalition of leftwing parties from the far left to the center left with the center left not having the absolute majority tends to be more popular than a government where the center left party has the majority.

When the center left party rules alone, there is a quite big risk that they lose a lot of support among the leftwing base as often center left party leaders are a little out of touch with the leftwing voters.

[windjammer]

Could BE join the govt in the foreaseable future?

[windjammer]

Costa is winning?

[windjammer]

Costa is very effective woooow. His party was a bit going down and he perfectly outwitted his opponents.

[windjammer]

Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF radio:

Vote share %:

43.2% PS (+2.8 )
21.6% PSD (-0.9)
  9.2% BE (+1.0)
  6.8% CDU (+0.3)
  6.0% CDS (-0.1)
  3.6% PAN (nc)
  1.2% Alliance (-0.3)
  8.4% Others/Invalid (-2.7)

Poll conducted between 8 and 14 July 2019. Polled 800 voters. MoE of 3.54%.

Is it an all time low for the right?

[windjammer]

I love Portugal! I will definitely learn Portuguese before dying!

[windjammer]

Dear god this is catastrophic for PSD. I guess the PSD Madeira leader will resign?

[windjammer]

Turnout projections:

RTP: 51-56%

SIC: 48.5-52.5%

CMTV: 52-56%

Is it better of worse?

[windjammer]

When the exit polls will be out?

[windjammer]

When do polls close? What is turnout typically like?

Polls close at 19:00h in mainland Portugal and Madeira, and close at 20:00h in the Azores. Only by that time, will the networks be allowed to release exit polls.

Turnout is typically around the high 50s in mainland Portugal, but if you add the overseas votes, it drops to the mid 50s. This time, because the electoral law was changed for overseas voters, turnout rates could be low as 50%, because of the high number of registered voters overseas, 1,4 million. Nonetheless, in a few second the turnout rates until mid day will be available.

Wow, that is abysmal. I had no idea a Western European country could have such a low turnout for its main election (aside from Switzerland).

This is because, like I said in posts above, of the automatic registration started in 2009. In 2005, there were 8,7 million voters in Portugal as a whole, but increased to 9,3 million in 2009. Many people that never changed their residence, and that left Portugal, became registered in their home towns, increasing the number of registered voters.

I see. I guess Portugal would be one of the countries in Europe most affected by emigration, so this might artificially depress turnout. Still, even taking that into account, it's still a really low figure. Italy still is in the low 70s despite plenty of emigration.

Israel also has a lot of emigration, and voters abroad are registered to vote but aren't allowed to do so from abroad. Turnout is still between 65 and 70 percent.

Why and where are Portuguese emigrating, though? I always had the impression that a lot of Schengen citizens came to Portugal but not so much the other way around, and that a low birthrate was Portugal's main demographic challenge.

Many emigrated during the 1960's, 70's to France, Germany, Switzerland, UK, Canada, USA. In the early 20th century, many emigrated to Brazil, and most recently, during the troika years, to the UK and Germany.

Many emigrants, from the last century, left Portugal because of poverty, bad living conditions and the dictatorship. During the crisis, a lot people, especially young people, left the country in search of better job opportunities.

And don't forget Luxembourg, around 15% of its population is Portuguese.

[windjammer]

PSPartido Socialista   
38,41%111.442 votos
PPD/PSDPartido Social Democrata   
33,69%97.734 votos
B.E.Bloco de Esquerda   
6,70%19.428 votos
CDS-PPCDS - Partido Popular   
4,92%14.278 votos
PCP-PEVCDU - Coligação Democrática Unitária   
4,45%12.904 votos
PANPESSOAS-ANIMAIS-NATUREZA   
1,72%4.981 votos
CHCHEGA   
0,93%2.704 votos
R.I.R.Reagir Incluir Reciclar   
0,84%2.436 votos
PCTP/MRPPPartido Comunista dos Trabalhadores Portugueses   
0,68%1.963 votos
AAliança   
0,48%1.399 votos
LLIVRE   
0,48%1.391 votos
ILIniciativa Liberal   
0,43%1.238 votos
PNRPartido Nacional Renovador   
0,21%598 votos
NCNós, Cidadãos!   
0,20%583 votos
PDRPartido Democrático Republicano   
0,20%582 votos
PURPPartido Unido dos Reformados e Pensionistas   
0,19%547 votos
PPMPartido Popular Monárquico   
0,18%530 votos
PTPPartido Trabalhista Português   
0,17%490 votos
MPTPartido da Terra   
0,17%479 votos
JPPJuntos pelo Povo   
0,09%255 votos
MASMovimento Alternativa Socialista   
0,02%59 votos

[windjammer]

Likeliest scenario?