A new "Solid South" ?

[TomC]

a - The Democrats will start winning 3-4 southern states in presidential elections in the future, or

b - the party will not survive.

(migration)

The Democrats carried the Solid South for a century and lost 15 of 25 Pres elections. It is certainly possible for a party, like the GOP during this period, to lose the entire South and still be a viable majority party.

[TomC]

a - The Democrats will start winning 3-4 southern states in presidential elections in the future, or

b - the party will not survive.

(migration)

Bull the Dems don't need the South just like the Reps don't need the Northeast. States to win for both parties are in the Midwest and Southwest. Given Ohio's job issues and Republican corruption, it should be a fairly easy "red" state to pick off with 20 electoral votes.

The Democrats can't win in the Midwest or the Southwest if they can't win in the south.

Uhm, have you looked at electoral maps for the last four elections?

[TomC]

a - The Democrats will start winning 3-4 southern states in presidential elections in the future, or

b - the party will not survive.

(migration)

Bull the Dems don't need the South just like the Reps don't need the Northeast. States to win for both parties are in the Midwest and Southwest. Given Ohio's job issues and Republican corruption, it should be a fairly easy "red" state to pick off with 20 electoral votes.

The Democrats can't win in the Midwest or the Southwest if they can't win in the south.

Uhm, have you looked at electoral maps for the last four elections?

What?

Yes, I have.  What's your point?

The Democrats already have solid footing in the Midwest and only win a Southern state here and there. Plus, clearly NM, Nev, and Co are closer to going Dem than most any Southern state with the possible exception of Arkansas. When states in the midwest (exception: Ind and the Dakotas) and SW are closer to going Democrat than the vast majority of Southern states, how can you possibly conclude that the Dems can't win in the SW and MW if they can't win in the South? I would really like to hear what evidence you have to back up your statement.

[TomC]

You have "proved" it's more likely that someone with appeal in areas that the Dems haven't been winning will make it more likely to win. You have not proved that the Dems can't win in the midwest and southwest if they can't win in the south. I don't disagree about the type of candidate you are talking about, but I still maintain that the states which the Dems have been closer to winning in recent elections in the MW and SW are more likely to turn Dem than the Southern states. The margins of victory or loss in the last four to five elections back that up. The South is solidly Republican. The SW and MW are swing regions.