State Partisan Control, 2005-2019

[Skill and Chance]

It is truly amazing how long downballot Dems held out in the more rural Southern states.  And you can't say they were uniformly conservative either.  I wonder if we will see anything equivalent in the future?  For a while, I thought it would be Republican legislative control in Virginia, but it now seems highly likely their time in the majority is up this fall.

[Skill and Chance]

In the next two years I could see Arizona, Minnesota, and Virginia flipping to Dem trifectas.

Texas House and Florida Senate should both be in play for 2020 as well. 

Other than that I don't see much changing (Not sure about North Carolina's legislative chambers...?). 

Ducey is the governor, so it can't flip to a Democratic trifecta.

IMO the Dems have a good shot in 2020 at flipping the AK House, AZ House+Senate, FL Senate (crucial for redistricting), IA House, MI House, MN Senate, NC House+Senate, PA House+Senate, TX House, and WI Senate, and can conceivably break R supermajorities in the OH House and the KS House.

There appears to be no LG tiebreaker in Florida, so they should only have to tie it to get a say in redistricting.  That, along with MN Senate, TX House, and 1/3rd of the KS House (plausible to do this now by getting more suburban R party switchers) should be the top priorities.  NC House and GA House are worth a strong effort as well because a say in redistricting in either state would be so valuable, but the odds of actually flipping control are long.  I wouldn't say chambers where there is both an R governor and an independent redistricting commission are worthy of as much effort. 

[Skill and Chance]

In the next two years I could see Arizona, Minnesota, and Virginia flipping to Dem trifectas.

Texas House and Florida Senate should both be in play for 2020 as well. 

Other than that I don't see much changing (Not sure about North Carolina's legislative chambers...?). 

Ducey is the governor, so it can't flip to a Democratic trifecta.

IMO the Dems have a good shot in 2020 at flipping the AK House, AZ House+Senate, FL Senate (crucial for redistricting), IA House, MI House, MN Senate, NC House+Senate, PA House+Senate, TX House, and WI Senate, and can conceivably break R supermajorities in the OH House and the KS House.

There appears to be no LG tiebreaker in Florida, so they should only have to tie it to get a say in redistricting.  That, along with MN Senate, TX House, and 1/3rd of the KS House (plausible to do this now by getting more suburban R party switchers) should be the top priorities.  NC House and GA House are worth a strong effort as well because a say in redistricting in either state would be so valuable, but the odds of actually flipping control are long.  I wouldn't say chambers where there is both an R governor and an independent redistricting commission are worthy of as much effort. 

North Carolina's Sate Supreme Court is gonna make the help things out there as well.

Good point.  Georgia House should be a much higher Dem priority in light of that.  It's a long shot, but if they can't do it now they won't get another chance at either chamber until 2032 (unless Roberts and/or Kavanaugh do something really surprising in the partisan gerrymandering cases).