Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Meclazine for Israel]

Something appears to be happening at the border between the two forces.

BigSerg may have been right.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Ukraine should give up Donbass at this point, and give up NATO membership as well, in exchange for continued sovereignty. If Russia pushes further, surrender without fighting.

An analogy is this: when being robbed, you give up exactly what the robber asks for. Your possessions aren’t worth your life. Similarily, Ukraine’s sovereignty is not worth having hundreds of thousands of people die.

I guess, but going with that analogy, if someone is being robbed (and assuming they're alone) I think it's their choice whether they want to give up or fight.

Implicit in Recoking's analysis is the fact that this is a fight they cannot win.

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I always grew up in a world where borders were locked and defined on Google Maps. Apart from 'Westerm Sahara', there is not many new borders.

Even the great American 'peace-keeping' expeditions of the last 50 years failed to change many borders.

Yet before any of us where alive, new borders and countries were common place.

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RUB is now above 79.  Financial markets clearly take the view that escalation has peaked and, while there is a significant chance of a blowup, the trend is toward de-escalation.

Probably, because neither US or EU want to describe it as invasion. Yet, at least.

Well, Ukraine cannot describe it as an invasion because as per Ukraine Russia already invaded these lands in 2014 so they cannot re-invade the same area. 

It seems we are headed to these breakaway republics being annexed to Russia soon.  It will be a rerun of the 1810 West Florida Republic in slow motion. 

I think this is a mistake on Russia's part as it now limits their strategic space.  Ideally for Russia, they want a pro-Russia (or at least non-anti-Russia) Ukraine.  This move takes that option off the table.  While I do not think Russia will do anything soon this move pretty much locks Russia into the goal of eating up Eastern Ukraine up to the Dnieper River in the coming decades and Western Ukraine will be anti-Russia for decades if not centuries.  These moves will be costly and risky for Russia and ensure at best a hostile Western Ukraine on its border.  Putin trades some short-term advtanages for long term costs.  My assessment of Putin as a sound strategist has diminished.

Well if what you are saying is true, Putin should just take the whole country.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I found this article as a useful summary:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-23/satellite-images-russian-troops-surround-ukraine/100827810

I don't think we can ignore historical context.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I cannot see how Ukraine can resist this invasion.

But I didn't think Bosnians had a chance against the Serbs (Chetniks) in the 1990's either.

Putin does risk a lot here, so he will want this over short and sharp.

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Ukraine - the context of history.

https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/saturdayextra/ukraine---a-history/13732182

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Not as much support on Instagram for Ukraine as I was expecting. Two Ukrainian models and the Oslo Tourist board, about 2-3% of my feed:





Maybe the delayed Instagram strategy of "releasing content" has not seen the production of any Ukraine stuff yet.

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More sanctions from the sporting world:

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Russian Tank vs....

Ukrainian Car

https://youtu.be/-xcfJY6QwnY

Miraculously, the guy survived.

[Meclazine for Israel]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/02/25/ukraine-russia-chips-sanctions-tsmc/

"Computer-chip industry begins halting deliveries to Russia in response to U.S. sanctions"

I wonder if Russia might launch counter-sanctions of C4F6,  gases neon, and palladium which is critical to making semiconductors.  If they do that the entire world chip industry might fall into crisis and massively hit supply chain issues related to products that need chips.  I guess like SWIFT on the collective West side, unless Russia gets desperate they will not play this card.

Russia is a large provider of high quality glass tubes for Amplifiers. They actually make a lot of stuff but that one affects my business.

We can get palladium from elsewhere.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Are there any military experts on this forum?

Someone who can show us a website with the actual map of what is going on from a strategic point of view.



That is as good as Australian media gets; not very informative to be honest. The media is just custard at delivering the facts.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Logical has become our military intelligence officer.

First map I have seen in 122 pages that makes any sense.

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Gee, if these numbers are accurate, this doesn't go all too well for Russia. We need to pay our deepest respects to the brave people of Ukraine who fight back barberry with this resistance. As I said, Putin should not only be ashamed of himself for the pain he's inflicting on a peaceful neighbor country, he's also sending young Russian soldiers to death en masse for his Greater Empire fantasies. Truly an appalling person. He can rot in hell.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497472133508714496

If these numbers are true, Putin will just bring out more military options.

The number of Battalion Groups he has is staggering. The remote weapons he can employ are more devastating than anything unleashed thus far.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Maybe more importantly, why do you continue to be Putin's useful idiot? Are you getting paid by him or what?

We don't need this sort of toxicity in here. Cut it out.

No.

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Sanctions just got real for the Russians.

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Anybody got any live webcams on Kharkov or Kiev?

Webcam from Kiev

https://youtu.be/telyOXdlTQM

That one is a bit narrow.

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"Foreigners willing to defend Ukraine and world order as part of the International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine, I invite you to contact foreign diplomatic missions of Ukraine in your respective countries. Together we defeated Hitler, and we will defeat Putin, too."

I would advise against it, although it would be the adventure of a lifetime.

Russia has not pulled out the big weapons yet.

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161 pages, 30 of them by NOVA Green.

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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-10

Great post.

Russia needs to get in and under both sides and attack from the SW.

That will cut off Ukraine's resupply chances from Poland, and allow the noose starting to form in the South to form 360 deg.

Belarus could simply drive that Western edge straight south and let refugee traffic go to the West, but no traffic goes through to the East.

[Meclazine for Israel]

What If....

Russia starts a War

https://youtu.be/HtR2kn6Luds

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4 Corners Australia

Russia vs Russia

https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/

Latest analysis of Russia from Australia's top journalists in Russia.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Looking at those maps from Logical, there are still 24 Battalion Tactical Groups in the northwest yet to invade from Belarus. That is a large amount of military strength in reserve.

Once the Ruskies get in an underneath that left flank, it's lights out.

Another scenario presented below. Maybe the Ruskies are only capturing the East to begin with.



Ukraine is a large land mass, so they might be planning the invasion in halves.

Mariupol must be surrounded by now.

In other news, Australian supermarkets have banned Russian Vodka.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Yikes! The downside of throwing such cocktails out of ordinary cars in a drive by is that the Russian troops might start firing at civilian automobiles on sight.

That is the dumbest thing I have seen so far.

For the reasons mentioned, the Ruskies will send that between themselves and end up getting a lot nastier.