Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Tender Branson]

I'd vote "Yes".

But I'm not sure if the voters will back it.

My prediction:

53% Yes
47% No

32% Turnout.

[Tender Branson]

Honestly David, I have the feeling Wilders will become PM.

Where is he going to find 76 seats?

Also, where is he going to find the coalition partners that he needs for PM ?

[Tender Branson]

Don't know if this has been posted already or not, but it seems the Dutch Interior Ministry decided to do a full hand-count in the upcoming elections, because of fears that scanners might be hacked (by the Russians etc.)

Nice.

[Tender Branson]

Apparently, Wilders has cancelled all of his planned public appearances.

A member of his personal security team (of Moroccan origin, lol) apparently tried to kill him or something.

[Tender Branson]

VVD will win this (again).

PVV will implode ...

[Tender Branson]

According to the Kantar poll, among the 75% who already have a preference, 40% are sure (95-100%) about their choice and another 39% are reasonably sure (75%-95%). Only 7% are less than 50% sure. These figures are all highly similar to those from 14 days before the 2012 election. However, voting intention is slightly higher than in 2012, when turnout was 74.6% (2010: 75.4%). 68% say they are sure to vote, another 18% say they will probably do so. Due to the fact that olds have died in five years time, I think we're probably going to have a turnout figure of about 75% again. Turnout will also depend on whether there will be a two-horse race. A sad state of affairs when about 25% don't even bother to vote.

That's similar to Austrian turnout (80% in 2008 and 75% in 2013).

The Presidential election, an office that is less important than federal elections, also had 75% turnout.

I guess next year, we could see a rise again towards 80%, but only if Kurz is the ÖVP-leader and Griss joins the NEOS-ticket. All of this would be great for turnout because it would create a 3-way race for first place and other voters have an incentive to vote as well.

Similarly, a bitchfight between VVD and PVV would probably increase turnout in the Netherlands and the same in Germany between CDU/CSU and SPD ...

I always like it when turnout goes up in times of falling turnout, like we have seen after the migrant waves in the past few years (in the Austrian state elections turnout was up significantly, also in German state elections and the 3 rounds of the Presidential election last year).

[Tender Branson]

Looks like the Netherlands is another country where dictator Erdogan is not welcome to campaign for his power-grabbing referendum.

This follows a ban in several German cities, who do not want any Turks campaigning there and Kurz (ÖVP) and Pilz's (Greens) comments here that Erdogan shouldn't engage in a "5th Column" campaign by taking his dictatorial crap into other countries.

[Tender Branson]

The Dutch government has banned the entry of the Turkish foreign minister by revoking the landing permit for his plane ...

He wanted to give a large rally in front of Dutch-Turks in Rotterdam, after which the mayor there said he can go and f**k himself. The Turkish foreign minister then said he'll still campaign there, which led the Dutch government to issue the landing ban.

Turkey and Erdogan now calls the Netherlands "Nazi" and "Fascists" and that they will "retaliate" against the Netherlands ...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/turkish-foreign-minister-determined-visit-netherlands-46063981

[Tender Branson]

He wanted to give a large rally in front of Dutch-Turks in Rotterdam, after which the mayor there said he can go and f**k himself. 
   
Turkey and Erdogan now calls the Netherlands "Nazi" and "Fascists" and that they will "retaliate" against the Netherlands ...

   
 
Which is especially ridiculous when you realize that the mayor of Rotterdam is Ahmed Aboutaleb, a Muslim born in Morocco.

Why would that be ridiculous ?

The mayor of Rotterdam, no matter if he's a Muslim or not, is serving the people of Rotterdam and he's not a slave to Erdogan and his Islamo-Fascist abettors ...

[Tender Branson]

This is the language they understand. Was not a big supporter of all this initially, but I have to say that if he ends up not visiting the Netherlands, the government has handled this neatly. But that's a big "if". Apparently the Turkish FM now wants to fly to Brussels and then drive to Rotterdam.

Damn, how I hate these Turkish agitators ...

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, Erdogan has called the Netherlands Nazis and fascists (after calling Germany Nazis earlier this week). Comedy gold.

Yeah.

He also called Austria the same.

Plus, one Turkish cabinet member said Austria is "committing crimes against humanity" (by not letting them campaign).

And another cabinet member posted on Twitter: "To Austrian Chancellor Kern: F**k off !"

http://www.krone.at/oesterreich/oesterreich-begeht-verbrechen-gegen-menschlichkeit-erdogan-regime-story-558426

[Tender Branson]

Family Affairs Minister Kaya will go to Rotterdam by car. Erdo has threatened to revoke the landing permissions for passenger planes from the Netherlands. Truly a present for Geert Wilders, while he blew his own campaign, lol.

Erodgan is just cutting himself in his own flesh with these actions ...

Apparently, he doesn't know that Germans/Dutch/Austrians are representing 90% of tourists in and around the Antalya coast.

Bookings from Austria to Turkey are already down 80% in February compared with last year, with many opting for less-troubled regions such as Spain, Italy, Croatia and Greece.

If Erdogan also pisses off Germany and Holland (and as a result, tourists from there), this will also hurt the workers on the Turkish coast - which in effect will turn against Erogan in the long-term.

[Tender Branson]

Family Affairs Minister Kaya will go to Rotterdam by car.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Tender Branson]

Why aren't any of these European politicians calling out Erdogan for his Nazi comparisons by pointing out that the Nazis harassed opposition parties and jailed critical journalists while promising to make the country great again?

Sebastian Kurz did so (and Angela Merkel as well today) ...

[Tender Branson]

is there any party which wishes to compromise?

DENK "want both Rutte and Erdogan to de-escalate" and haven't publicly picked a side. They cannot afford to piss off their supporters and probably don't think it was a problem for Turkish ministers to come to the Netherlands and campaign for a "yes" vote in the first place. All other parties are in agreement with the government. D66 and SP have been especially vocal about their stance.

Meanwhile, Rutte stated that he wants Erdogan to apologize for his remarks about the Netherlands being a Nazi country, contradicting FM Koenders' earlier statement that asking for apologies would not be useful. Erdogan just called the Netherlands a "banana republic" and said the international community should consider sanctions against us.

David, you forgot to mention the 5.000 or so Kurds that were killed by the Erdogan-forces over the past year and the 100.000s that were displaced and tortured and intimidated - because after all being a Kurd is the same as being a terrorist.

How many Kurds did the "banana-Republic" Netherlands torture, displace and kill last year ?

[Tender Branson]

Good points, Tender.

Today's peil.nl poll shows that the PVV lost 3 more seats. Still no VVD recovery either, and the momentum lies with CDA, GL and SP.

With the way this is going, they might end up 3rd, 4th or 5th ...

Or, there's a last-minute election day surge for them because of the Turkish agitation.

[Tender Branson]

Tender's prediction:

27 seats - VVD
25 seats - PVV
24 seats - CDA
17 seats - D66
15 seats - SP
14 seats - GL
11 seats - PvdA
  5 seats - CU
  4 seats - 50+
  3 seats - SGP
  2 seats - PvdD
  3 seats - Others

Turnout: 73.2% (-1.4)

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday in Rotterdam and Amsterdam:

Violent Turks kicking Dutch police officers on the ground while chanting "Allah is great !" and holding Turkish flags and chanting slogans in support of their fanboy and dictator Erdogan, while verbally and physically abusing their home country Netherlands ...

[Tender Branson]

I think GL's polling numbers are a bubble that won't fully materialize on election day.

14-16 maybe, but probably not 20 seats.

Up from 4 in 2012.

[Tender Branson]

I guess, as we have seen in Austria, people tend to be more careful voting for the far-right populist parties after the Trump victory because they don't want a disaster like Trump in their countries and fear for the reputation of their countries.

On the other hand, the Turkish agitation obviously mobilizes the PVV.

I guess it will be a wash and the PVV will end up close to what polling shows, maybe slightly higher or slightly lower ...

[Tender Branson]

LOL @ PM Rutte when he said yesterday: "I want the Netherlands to be the first country in Europe to stop the trend of the Far-Right populists."

It's Austria first, Netherlands second when it comes to this ...

[Tender Branson]

Currently watching the debate between Justin Bieber-Trudeau (GroenLinks) and the CDA guy:

[Tender Branson]

Tender's FINAL prediction:

33 seats - VVD
23 seats - CDA
22 seats - PVV
16 seats - D66
14 seats - SP
14 seats - GL
10 seats - PvdA
  5 seats - CU
  4 seats - 50+
  3 seats - SGP
  3 seats - PvdD
  2 seats - Denk
  1 seats - FvD

MoE = +/- 2 seats (for those over 10 seats) and +/- 1 seat for those with less than 10 seats

Turnout: 73.2% (-1.4)

The Right (VVD, CDA, PVV, CU, SGP and FvD) should have a good day, probably getting 60% of the 150 seats (=90) or even more, based on the recent Turkish agitation. I also expect voters and late-deciders to rally around the PM and the VVD, but the CDA and PVV will also have respectable results. I expect the Left to underperform today, especially GroenLinks. PvdA will head for a disaster.

[Tender Branson]

Polls are now open and here are some statistics and charts:

12.980.788 people are eligible to vote

Historical turnout:



The red line is the important one for today.

Here are the final polls:



Also, Dutch ballot boxes look like our trash containers:

[Tender Branson]

Get yourself someone who looks at you the way the polling assistants looks at Klaver casting his vote in den Haag.

#FlawlessBeautifulJesse ??!!