2012 NDP leadership convention

[RogueBeaver]

He has 33 MP's. If I can find out which ones I'll map it.

33 people out of over 80,000 members.

[RogueBeaver]

The 8 you mentioned matter in their ridings, but I've never heard of anyone on Mulcair's list.

[RogueBeaver]

No, they don't matter in their ridings.

They matter in the media.

Who are Mulcair's people again? :}

[RogueBeaver]

Nystrom backing a Quebecer is interesting from a historical perspective, to say the least.

Care to say more?
I don't really know Nystrom, I'm too young and the coverage of NDP in Quebec before Layton was inexistant.

I probably phrased that in the wrong way; I don't mean 'interesting' as 'surprising' but just as 'interesting'. Nystrom was heavily involved in political debates over constitutional issues in the 80s and 90s. I think, though may be misremembering, that he was always opposed to the cruder forms of federalism.

What do you mean by "cruder"? There are essentially two views among the federalist parties: varying degrees of centralism (NDP until 2005, most Liberals) and provincial-rights advocates (Tories, a few Grits). I assume you mean Trudeauvian centralism.

[RogueBeaver]

IMO he's coming dangerously close to holding traditional NDP culture in contempt.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1069500--tim-harper-tom-mulcair-versus-the-ndp-elite

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair had a good point about running to replace rather than succeed Layton IMO. This is a good field, though I wouldn't underestimate an outcome like LPC '06, with Topp as Iggy and Mulcair as Rae, either Dewar or Cullen as Dion. Maybe Ducasse reprises his MHF role from '03?

Hot chicks: Mulcair needs heavyweight endorsements, not featherweight frosh. All the prominent frosh except Laverdiere have endorsed Topp.

[RogueBeaver]

Neither is Nash from her public pronoucements. So that leaves Chisholm and if he's not bluffing about being the mer... I mean "formal cooperation" candidate, Pat Martin.

[RogueBeaver]

The best explanation of Mulcair's MO so far.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201110/15/01-4457632-thomas-mulcair-dr-jekyll-et-mr-hyde.php

[RogueBeaver]

This won't fly with the Anglo community, not by a long shot. But I'd let the Grits make this argument.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/the-real-thomas-mulcair/article2201488/

[RogueBeaver]

Well, this is interesting: It seems Nathan Cullen is making himself the "cooperation" or "non-compete deals" candidate. 
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/cullen-proposes-running-joint-ndp-liberal-green-candidates-in-next-election-132071883.html

He seems determined to distinguish himself from Pat Martin though.  Martin will now probably either get behind him, or enter the race proposing an all-out merger. 

The idea is still idiotic no matter how you cut it.

[RogueBeaver]

Merger supporters are like Huntsman supporters: the ratio of journalists to voters greatly favours journalists, and the total number is quite small in proportion to the voter pool.

[RogueBeaver]

Plus que sa change... merci M. Topp. Dippers want to raise taxes, we want steady as she goes, and the Grits (if Brison has his way in January) might want to eliminate CGT. Looks like the tax match is set for '15.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/brian-topp-wants-ndp-to-run-on-tax-the-rich-platform/article2208872/?from=sec368

[RogueBeaver]

Given that she publicly mused about staying out, I'm mildly surprised that Nash is getting in. While all Topp's rivals not named Mulcair are on the left, they'll probably coalesce behind him on the final ballot. I could see a scenario where either Topp or Mulcair doesn't make it though- much like Rae didn't make the final '06 ballot.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1075100--peggy-nash-to-join-ndp-race-this-week

Non-Francos supporting Mulcair: I'm surprised.

[RogueBeaver]

Not clear what he means, and I doubt there are enough "rightists" (for lack of a better term) to give him a victory.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/mulcair-draws-line-in-ndp-sand-describes-telling-union-boss-no/article2214319/

[RogueBeaver]

I'm just a little amused that Mulcair has been painted as this big right-wing monster. How will the Conservatives portray him in their attacks if he wins the leadership? If it's not one thing, it's another.

Peggy Nash joins the race Friday.

http://www.thestar.com/news/article/1076258

He's an intraparty rightist, interparty more on the soft left. As for how we're going to portray him... standard anti-NDP ads plus recycling the Angry Man ads Martin used against Harper in '04 and '06.

[RogueBeaver]

Nash is in, Chisholm's getting in Sunday.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/nash-enters-ndp-fray-with-focus-on-making-economy-more-inclusive/article2217071/

[RogueBeaver]

Ugh... no. Mulcair was always on the PLQ's left wing. He resigned from Cabinet because he didn't want development on a provincial park- does that sound like a pro-business Liberal to you? But in a field where one leading candidate (Topp) wants to raise both income and consumption taxes and another is purely Old Lab (Nash), then he'll definitely be the rightest candidate.

[RogueBeaver]

6 debates will be held all around the country.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201111/01/01-4463221-six-debats-opposeront-les-candidats-a-la-direction-du-npd.php

[RogueBeaver]

Sorry, I wasn't responding to you but one of the Canucks. My apologies.

On another note, Ashton is getting in.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1079451--niki-ashton-collecting-signatures-for-ndp-leadership-race

[RogueBeaver]

I'm surprised as well.

[RogueBeaver]

Saganash sort of repudiates Sherbrooke.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/leadership-hopeful-questions-ndp-policy-on-quebec-secession/article2224608/

[RogueBeaver]

Ashton will be in as of noon Eastern. Field is now set.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201111/07/01-4465221-niki-ashton-briguerait-la-direction-du-npd.php

[RogueBeaver]

what about Pat Martin?

I presume Topp's stance on the m... issue will be enough.

[RogueBeaver]

She seems a bit young, but my thinking is she is hoping the NDP wins the next election and she gets a cabinet post as a candidate and she raises her profile there and then once the leader steps down which if the party is successful, might not be until she is over 40, then she can make a serious run.  Still I agree she seems awfully young and if the party loses a whole wack of seats expect the next leader to go and lets remember with the NDP at its record height, its tough to say if this is their bridge to power much like the NDP in Nova Scotia or if they follow the route of the Quebec ADQ or Manitoba Liberals under Sharon Carstairs who saw their parties return back to their traditional levels of support.  Too early to really say and a lot off course will depend on how the Liberals and Conservative perform too. 

Probably just running to raise her profile, like everyone not named Mulcair/Topp/Nash.

[RogueBeaver]

Is it okay if we all mutually agree to never mention 308 on this board? I think that would be good for everyone.

Said he's definitely not anti-union, and is definitely not a separatist, either.

Is this really something people are saying about him? The man was a Liberal frontbencher! If the Quebec Liberal Party stands for anything (other than the Mafia), it stands for federalism.

The PLQ takes Harper's soft nationalism stance in its good moods, heads more in the autonomiste direction in worse moods. But under no circumstances will they ever approach the PLC, Trudeauvian orthodoxy on that subject- with good electoral reason.