2012 NDP leadership convention

[RogueBeaver]

That'll be difficult given who these frosh are.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201112/17/01-4478859-mulcair-en-quete-de-membres-au-quebec.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B13b_politique-canadienne_560_section_POS1

[RogueBeaver]

Last week's At Issue had "premature Topp coronation" (by the NDP establishment) as one of the year's biggest political mistakes. I agree about the bad timing, but will reserve judgment on Topp himself until/if he's elected leader.

[RogueBeaver]

They meant most of the NDP's top figures endorsing Topp. Mulcair's only big name is Ed Schreyer. Topp and Nash divvied up the others. Biggest names to yet endorse are Miller and Selinger, and Miller would probably go with either Topp or Nash. The difference between the Dipper and Grit establishments, IMO is that Dippers elect but then subordinate to the leader (Layton), while Grits control (Iggy) but never elect (Dion).

 

[RogueBeaver]

CSD, what's your unease with Topp about?

He fell from nowhere and instrumentalised the death of someone.

On that we agree.

Anyhoo, here's the history behind unelected leaders.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/how-do-leaders-without-seats-reach-the-commons/article2276238/

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair leads a new poll. The federal numbers in Quebec are Dippers 33, BQ 27, Tories 18, Grits 16. What continues to mystify me is the Liberals only in 2nd place among non-Francophones.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/12/20/ndp-leadership-thomas-mulcair-poll_n_1160001.html?ref=canada-politics

[RogueBeaver]

Also, based partly on the numbers I've discussed in the past, and, the new poll, and, a few other numbers, I've come up with my own projection as to where I feel the race stands at the moment.

Topp - 32%
Mulcair - 32%
Nash - 24%
Others - 12%

I think far more "NDP supporters" back Mulcair (heavily) but far more "NDP members" (very heavily) back Topp

So Topp wins on the first ballot, since obviously only members can vote.

[RogueBeaver]

Hopefully Saganash and Singh will be next. I presume that the candidates will tell their supporters who to preference for. Either Dewar or Cullen could be chosen as a compromise candidate if the convention ends up like LPC '06.

[RogueBeaver]

Agreed on Ashton. But with Dewar/Cullen you could see neither of them want to throw to the other, because both believe they have a shot at victory. See LPC '68 or '06 for details. As for which of them would have a better shot, no idea. I have heard that Dewar is supposedly the most moderate among the top-tier candidates, but unsure if that's true or not.

[RogueBeaver]

He had to drop his "strategic coop" plan though, since no one in either party took that seriously.

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair touts experience.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/12/21/pol-thomas-mulcair-profile.html

[RogueBeaver]

Brian Topp not a first-tier candidate? Such asininity must surely come from a Dipper Kinsella analogue.

Mulcair: Not that sh**t again. Like Topp, he self-identifies as an Anglo.

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair interview.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/race+Things+have+turned+around+underdog+Thomas+Mulcair+leadership+race/5910505/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Teddy, I'm liking the chart.

Holmes: Hence why the Grits need to choose wisely. No one knows much about the race's state, since there's no reliable polling. Agreed on the headline. Mulcair, fairly or unfairly, has a reputation for not only being unable to suffer fools gladly but also very high-octane. NDP culture has never produced a high-octane leader.

[RogueBeaver]

Define "high octane"

Intense. Very intense.

[RogueBeaver]

Layton?

As intense as Mulcair? Not IMO.

[RogueBeaver]

Oh look, it's Boulerice and Boivin! They didn't seem to have a problem getting behind Mulcair back then when he was the only elected official in Quebec and was working to get them elected.

Loyalties change. Topp also had a hand in the Quebec strategy, don't forget.

[RogueBeaver]

Holmes: Topp suddenly acquired Coderre's personality?

[RogueBeaver]

Obviously I wouldn't make the mistake of assuming that the NDP members here are entirely reflective overall, but this level of hostility towards Topp is very interesting.

The opposite of the anti-Iggy movement 5 years ago. Instead of "How dare the base deny this worthy establishmentarian (Dion) his turn" it's "how dare the establishment impose this guy on us." Fun times.

[RogueBeaver]

I also think Nash will finish second.

[RogueBeaver]

Topp: The choice between Mulcair and I is an ideological one.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/topp-drops-his-gloves-to-take-shot-at-ndp-rival-mulcair/article2286790/

[RogueBeaver]

Re Topp: We always knew the NDP was never going to rebrand ideologically beyond where Layton went, and anyone proposing it would meet with fierce resistance. So it happens...

[RogueBeaver]

Topp sinking?

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Stephen+Mayer+Stephen+Harper+could+facing+ideologically+divided+2012/5937655/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Topp must be behind in his internals if he's already at the kitchen sink stage of attacks. But when you're running against Tom Mulcair, using anything but the kitchen sink approach would be foolish. It could create an opening for a third candidate if the two frontrunners have thoroughly toxified themselves- most likely Dewar or Nash.

[RogueBeaver]

Do Dippers know where they stand?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/john-ibbitson/does-the-ndp-know-where-it-stands/article2292162/

[RogueBeaver]

Out of curiosity, Roguebeaver, do you post these articles because you agree with them or just to keep the debate going?

I've always found Ibbitson vacuous and that article suffers further from what I now call the left-wing false dilemma. This whole "progressivism v. social democracy" nonsense is just a sign that the NDP needing a more coherent platform, and there is no reason why the party should choose message over ideas like the Conservatives.

One possibility I've heard few pundits talk about is whether Harper could be defeated by economic as well as political forces by 2015. Perhaps Canadians are still on a high from Canada's relatively stable condition, but I've always believed by the next election Harper will be trapped in a Mulroney-esque crisis.

In this case, and generally speaking, to keep the debate going. My personal impression is that the NDP base is somewhere between Topp and Dewar, though I don't really know the NDP that much. So I disagree with Ibbitson.