The 1,000 Districts Series

[GMantis]

Idaho, with the Republican legislature being generous:



The blue (Boise and immediate suburbs) would have been won by Obama with 264 votes, but should be favorable to Idaho Democrats. They also could have an outside chance in the northern district (McCain 59.1%, Obama 38.3%). Incidentally, 5 districts is probably the minimum in Idaho where you can draw an Obama district without a hideous gerrymander.

[GMantis]

Don't they have a commission?

Yes, they do. In this case, probably the most reasonable map. Then again, one would think that not splitting the Boise Metro would be the more reasonable solution with two districts...

[GMantis]

Iowa.



That turned out more difficult than I thought it would be, as I tried to keep the no county splitting rule except Polk (De Moines), which is considerably bigger than one district, while keeping deviation within 1%.

DISTRICT 1: NORTHEAST IOWA: 58% Obama, 40.4% McCain. Probably Lean D. Obama's margin in 2012 was considerably narrowe (11%)

DISTRICT 2: DAVENPORT-MUSCATINE: 56.7% Obama, 41.8% McCain. About as Safe D as the two current eastern districts. Unlike the first, didn't change much in 2012.

DISTRICT 3: SOUTHERN IOWA: 50.7% Obama, 47.2% McCain. Should be a toss-up district. Still won in 2012 by Obama, though only by a narrow plurality.

DISTRICT 4: NORTH CENTRAL IOWA: 56.3% Obama, 42.1 McCain. Lean D, considering how the 2012 Obama victory was only about 7%.

DISTRICT 5: CEDAR RAPIDS: Name is due to Linn county being about 70% of the district. 57.3% Obama, 41.2% McCain. Lean D, though probably safe in practice. Margin narrowed quite a bit (11%) in 2012.

DISTRICT 6: IOWA CITY-MARSHALLTOWN: 58.7% Obama, 39.5% McCain. The reduced 2012 margin is still higher than that of the two eastern districts. Safe D.

DISTRICT 7: DES MOINES: 60.5% Obama, 37.7% McCain . Also the least white district (only 80.4% of the VAP). Safe D.

DISTRICT 8: DES MOINES SUBURBS: 50.3% Obama, 47.8% McCain. May have gone for Romney in 2012. Should be Lean R for Iowa Republicans.

DISTRICT 9: SOUTHWEST IOWA: 47.6% Obama,  50.8% McCain. Lean R. 2012 Margin was about 7%.

DISTRICT 10: NORTHWEST IOWA: 42.2% Obama, 56.3% McCain. Safe R.

So it should be usually 6D-4R, with an occasional 7D-3R.

[GMantis]

What programs do you use to make these?

This one:
http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/davesredistricting2.0.aspx

[GMantis]

IA would not like that map. One of their important rules involves minimizing the east-west to north-south differences in the districts. Your district 3 on the south, and to a lesser degree district 5 through Cedar Rapids would create large differences in dimensions. You could make a better district 3 by linking Keokuk to Iowa City.

I had heard about the rule but I was concentrating more about the rule about no county splits. As a result there is little flexibility in the east, where there are a few very large counties, which all have to be in separate districts (you can't place almost any significant county together with Linn or Scott with Johnson, for example) and this seems to lead these elongated districts. Your suggestion may avoid district 3, but there will probably still have to be a elongated Lynn based district.

[GMantis]

Kansas



This was intended to be a reasonably fair map. Of course if the actual Kansas legilsature was in charge of drawing it, they would probably split Wichita in two and instead of making a Lawrence-Leavenworth district, split the area in two and create another district on the Missouri border.

DISTRICT 1: KANSAS CITY-NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY: 56.4-42.3 Obama. The least white district in Kansas (62.9%, 67.2% VAP). Should be safe D for Kansas Democrats.

DISTRICT 2: EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY: 54.6-44.1 McCain. Contains Overland Park and parts of Olathe. Should be safe R outside of wave years.

DISTRICT 3: SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS: 60.2-37.7 McCain. Most rural of the eastern dstricts, with no significant settlements except Emporia. Safe R.

DISTRICT 4: LAWRENCE-LEAVENWORTH: 49.8-48.3 Obama. Contains also part of Johnson county (mostly Olathe). Was probably won by Romney, but is still the only toss-up district.

DISTRICT 5: TOPEKA-MANHATTAN: 54.6-43.6 McCain. Like the second district should be safe R in a non-wave year.

DISTRICT 6: SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS: 64.2-33.9 McCain. Contains mostly the suburbs of Wichita. Safe R.

DISTRICT 7: WICHITA: 50.3-47.9 McCain. Contains (obviously) most of Wichita and is the second least-white district (63.5%, 68.9% VAP). Slight lean R, though certainly can be taken by a good Democratic candidate.

DISTRICT 8: HUTCHINSON-SALINA-JUNCTION CITY: 64.4-33.7 McCain. The most centrally located district, with several mid-sized cities. Safe R.

DISTRICT 9: WESTERN KANSAS: 73.3-25 McCain. Self-explanatory and of course extremely safe R.

So most likely 7-1-1.

[GMantis]

Since I was just about to post it before traininthedistance beat me to it, here's my version of Wisconsin:




DISTRICT 1: KENOSHA-RACINE: Obama 58%,  D 48.4%. Both of the main cities and most of the respective counties. I think this would probably be lean D - for example Kerry probably carried it, in a good year for the Republicans in Wisconsin.

DISTRICT 2: SOUTH MILWAUKEE: Obama 50.3%, D 43.5%. Mostly the whiter southern suburbs of Milwaukee. Lean R.

DISTRICT 3: CENTRAL MILWAUKEE: Obama 74.1%, D 69.8%. Entirely within the city of Milwaukee, hence the somewhat convoluted shape. Safe D.

DISTRICT 4: NORTH MILWAUKEE: Obama 79.2%, D 75.8%. Black majority district (54.3%, VAP 50.3%). Most Democratic in the state.

DISTRICT 5: EASTERN WAUKESHA COUNTY: Obama 37.4%, D 29.1%. City of Waukesha and most of the county. Most Republican district in the state.

DISTRICT 6: JEFFERSON COUNTY-WALWORTH COUNTY-WESTERN WAUKESHA COUNTY: Obama 43.1%, D 32.2%. A somewhat awkward district composed of the remainder of Southeastern Wisconsin, including also part of Racine and Dodge counties (mainly the town of Watertown). Safe R.

DISTRICT 7: SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN: Obama 62.9%, D 52.5%. Most of the population is in Rock county, where the two largest cities, Janesville and Beloit are located. Safe D.

DISTRICT 8: SUBURBAN DANE-PORTAGE-DODGE COUNTY:  Obama 58.7%, D 51.3% Another district without many notable cities, it reaches as far as western Washington county. Not much more Democratic in 2008 than the 1st, but judging from the 2010 result probably safe D.

DISTRICT 9: MADISON: Obama 76.1%, D 74%. Includes (obviously) Madison and a few surrounding cities. Second most Democratic district in the state.

DISTRICT 10: CENTRAL COAST: Obama 40.6%, D 30.4%. Stretching from Sheboygan to the Milwaukee county line and also includes West Bend. Safe R.

DISTRICT 11: FOND DU LAC-OSHKOSH: Obama 50.5%, D 39.9%. The district is situated around Lake Winnebago, which nearly divides it into two halves. Despite the 2008 result, probably safe R.

DISTRICT 12: SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN: Obama 60%, D 48.6%. Self-explanatory. Part of the traditional western Democratic strongholds, though it collapsed in 2010. Lean D, though probably going to be held except in a very bad year.

DISTRICT 13: CENTRAL WISCONSIN: Obama 55.4%, D 44.5%. Again an obvious name for a district without any major settlements. It experienced one of the biggest swings to the Republicans in 2012. Lean R.

DISTRICT 14: APPLETON-WESTERN GREEN BAY SUBURBS: Obama 53.4%, D 42.2%. Named after the areas where most of the population is, though it stretches into the more sparsely populated Oconto and Shawano counties. Lean R.

DISTRICT 15: GREEN BAY-MANITOWOC: Obama 55.1%, D 43.9%. With the most Republican parts of Brown county in the 14th district, this is a bit more Democratic, though still lean R.

DISTRICT 16: EAU CLAIRE-ST.PAUL SUBURBS: Obama 54.7%, D 45.1. Relatively small by area for Northern Wisconsin, as it includes both the largest city in the region and the outer Twin Cities suburbs. The 2008 Obama and average R results nearly mirror each other. Tossup.

DISTRICT 17: NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN: Obama 55%, D 46.5%. The largest district in Wisconsin. Probably tossup, though the trend seems to favor the Democrats.

DISTRICT 18: NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN: Obama 53.2%, D 42.3%. Nearly half of the population is in Marathon county, so it could probably also be called Wausau and Wilderness Lean R (though it includes the most Democratic county in the state).

Overall:
5 Safe D
2 Lean D
2 Tossup
5 Lean R
4 Safe R
The state seems to be naturally gerrymandered towards the Republicans, though the if you consider the 15th a tossup district and the 17th a Democratic leaning one, the Democratic and Republican would be exactly equal.

[GMantis]

Oklahoma







This assumes (like with my previous maps) non-partisan redistricting. The Republican legislature would probably split Oklahoma city into three or even four districts

DISTRICT 1: SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA: McCain 69.3%, 47.5% R  average.  One of the three districts that comprise the majority of Oklahoma's area. This district is traditionally Democratic and could probably elect a Boren-type Democrat, so it's only Lean R, despite it being even more Republican than the state average in Presidential elections.

DISTRICT 2: SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA: McCain 67.8%, R 50.9%. Even bigger by area than the 1st, though over a third of the population is in the Lawton metro (Comanche county), the third largest in the state. Though this district also contains some ancestral Democratic areas (like Jefferson county), it's probably Safe R, outside a very good year for the Democrats.

DISTRICT 3: NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA: McCain 62.4%, R 46%. Another mostly rural district, with Muskogee being by far the largest city. It's 23.2% Native American, the highest percentage in the state. The district is also traditionally Democratic and has preserved this status slightly better than the 1st district (Obama's two best counties are here). But it's Lean R at most.

DISTRICT 4: OUTER TULSA METROPOLITAN AREA: McCain 70%, R 54.7%. Except for two counties, the name is literal. Safe R.

DISTRICT 5: TULSA: McCain 58.1%, R 51.8%. Entirely within the city of Tulsa. This is the opposite of the eastern districts - it's traditionally Republican, so despite the low McCain result, it's safe R.

DISTRICT 6: INNER TULSA METROPOLITAN AREA: McCain 66.9%, R 57%. The rest of Tulsa county and parts of Creek county. Safe R.

DISTRICT 7: STILLWATER-OKMULGEE-SHAWNEE: McCain 65.9%, R 49.9% Central Oklahoma would probably also work, considering that it basically fills up the space between the Oklahoma City and Tulsa metropolitan areas (and includes parts of both). A surprisingly strong Democrat average moves it to Lean R, though that probably applies only to very conservative Democrats.

DISTRICT 8: SUBURBAN OKLAHOMA COUNTY: McCain 67.4%, R 58.8%. Includes most of Oklahoma county that's not in the 10th district, including part of the city. Safe R.

DISTRICT 9: CANADIAN COUNTY-GRADY COUNTY-CADDO COUNTY: McCain 71.2%, R 58.8%. Though it stretches as far west as Custer and Washita counties, calling it western OKC suburbs would probably also be a good name, considering where most of the population lives. Safe R.

DISTRICT 10: OKLAHOMA CITY: McCain 42.5%, R 38.9%. Contains, apart from most of Oklahoma city, a few enclosed towns. Only district with a non-white majority (42.2% white, 48.6% VAP). Safe D.

DISTRICT 11: CLEVELAND COUNTY: McCain 64.4%, R 54%. Name is not strictly true, thoughabout 80% of the population does live in Cleveland county, again mostly in the OKC suburbs. Safe R

DISTRICT 12: NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA: McCain 76.8%, R 60.6%. The area is so sparsely settled that it has to reach into the OKC suburbs to make up the numbers. Not only the most Republican district in the state, but probably among the most Republican in the country.

So overall 8 Safe R, 3 Lean R and one Safe D.

[GMantis]

North Dakota



DISTRICT 1: EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA: Obama 50.4%, McCain 47.7%. The easternmost 18 counties, with nearly half of the population living in Cass county (Fargo). Though 2008 was an unusually good result for the Democrats in Presidential elections (Romney won it 51.9% to 45.1%) , the tendency of North Dakota Democrats to over-perform in congressional elections makes it Lean D.

DISTRICT 2: WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA: McCain 59.1%, Obama 38.9%. The other 35 counties, including Bismarck. Safe R.