It is quite possible that Obama's absence from the ticket could revert us to turnout models that are less-favourable for the Dems.
Or less favorable to the Dems in states like Colorado while more favorable in states like Kentucky. The map doesn't have to look the same as 2008 or 2012, even if Clinton wins, since Clinton is not Obama.
At present, the most recent polling has Christie leading Clinton in PA and CO, while losing to her in FL and AR. Not sure that will hold up, but it would be a fun map.