ABC Feb 6 GOP Debate Criteria - UPDATE: Lineup announced

[Likely Voter]

Carson may be in the top 3 in IA and even if in 4th I can see him sticking around until SC (assuming he still has the $). With ABC using such a large polling window, he could easily meet their criteria in the national poll average. 

Also, with such a strict criteria, now there will be little reason for Huck and Sanotrum to stick around after IA. But this top 6 thing is bad news for Fiorina and (probably) Paul, who likely want to hang around to see what happens in NH, however not appearing at the debate almost makes them look like they dropped out.     

[Likely Voter]

I assume it means polls like their own, or live phone (landline and mobile).

[Likely Voter]

Well Paul and Fiorina are out on average of all polls and live phone polls.   

[Likely Voter]

I did quick averages using only live phone polls...

USA
1   Trump   35.22
2   Cruz   19.44
3   Rubio   10.89
4   Carson   8.22
5   Bush   4.78
6   Christie   3.22
----------------------
7   Kasich   2.33
8   Fiorina   2.22
9   Gilmore   0.11
      
NH
1   Trump   31.88
2   Cruz   11.82
3   Rubio   11.47
4   Kasich   11.35
5   Bush   8.35
6   Christie   7.41
----------------------
7   Fiorina   3.59
8   Carson   3.29
9   Gilmore   0.00

So basically everyone but Fiorina and Gilmore qualifies. There really is no reasonable poll selection to they could do to put Fiorina in unless they changed their criteria.  Perhaps a reasonable criteria instead of 'top 3' in IA would be 'won a delegate or more in IA'...with that she would qualify. Christie would not but he is still in top 6 in US and NH polling.

[Likely Voter]

ABC makes it official, no Carly. Looks like they are using national polls to determine podium position.


http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/abc-news-announces-hampshire-republican-debate-candidate-lineup/story?id=36721505