Canada Federal Representation 2024

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Hornepayne should be in Sault Ste Marie.  What's the reasoning for not being with the rest of the Algoma district?

Speculating the Commission noticed it has a greater percentage of bilingual people than Sault Ste. Marie and wanted to protect that interest by putting it in a more Francophone riding, and/or saw it is slightly closer to Highway 11 than 17.

If neither of those move the community of interest north to the Highway 11 corridor than maybe it was an oversight or something else.

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1 small thing I suggested the Commission can do with Burlington-Milton West if they’re doing a 2 riding proposal for Milton is to remove the rural portion of Oakville and Halton Hills and add the area of Milton bounded by Main, Thompson, Ontario, and Steeles. This reduces the municipalities in Burlington-Milton West from 4 to 2 and unifies the sections of Urban Milton built before the 1990s (there was minimal development in the 90s and then a bunch from 2000ish) bounded by Bronte, Thompson, Derry, and Steeles.

A bunch of people will probably also argue for just 1 urban Milton riding which I wouldn’t mind either tbh.

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I can’t see the photo Krago posted, but back in 2012, the Commission drew Mississauga as 6 ridings that were each 10-15% above the quota to preserve its Community of Interest. Because Mississauga’s population was stagnant, it’s ridings are now much closer to the quota and can be kept largely unchanged for the next 10 years, creating some nice continuity.

You’d imagine that the Commission could do something similar with Scarborough (5 ridings, each 5-10% above the quota), but the written submissions seem to suggest that high-rise developments will finally make Scarborough’s population non-stagnant and that there is an unusually high amount of census undercounting in Scarborough. Idk if that makes it too dissimilar to Mississauga 2012.

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Comment 22 in the Toronto region is an interesting read that makes the case to reduce Toronto to 23 to bring Northern Ontario to 10. One way you can look at this (and the comment does this as well in part) is that 11 bordering ridings across North York, Northwestern Scarborough, and the Don Valley are all underpopulated. If you add them up, they are a combined -33.5% under the quota, which isn’t really enough to remove a riding, but if Northern Ontario is gonna keep 10 ridings, are you gonna be able to do any better?

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Or Angus and fellow Northern MPs can get on a call for a few hours, and actually draw a set of 10 Northern Ontario ridings that don’t include Kapuskasing with Algoma/Manitoulin.

Or someone else if we can’t expect them to not just gerrymander districts that favour their incumbencies. I know MPs can make suggestions but idk if proposing a new map for an entire region goes too far.

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There are (northern) New Democrats in the north fighting to keep that 10th seat (which I assume is Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasin), a riding that makes absolutely no sense in terms of connections, communities of interest, No highway connections, just to keep an extra "safe" NDP seat is way too hyper partisan, sounds of gerrymandering.  And I'm an NDP supporter, usually.  Kap and Hearst should be in a riding with Timmins - these are communities of interest, they have nothing in common with Manitoulin Island, other than the fact that the commission created this absurd riding some time ago.

It shocks me to hear Charlie Angus fight so hard, when the majority of his residents in Timmins, would be better served by someone in a smaller (geographic) riding that could focus on the issues in the community.

No seat in the North is safe anymore, but I am betting Hughes will just run in the new Nickel Belt riding, and may even be favoured. Nickel Belt is usually the NDP's best riding provincially anyway.

Checking in ridingbuilder, the NDP actually might pick up a seat until something makes people stop voting like in 2019 and 2021: the Nickel Belt and Cochrane-Timiskaming (yay for Angus) ridings are NDP and they would be the favourites to make a pickup in the Kiiwetinoong riding but that depends a lot on the candidate.

The Liberals meanwhile probably lose Rainy River (which picks up Conservative Kenora), Nickel Belt (which loses Liberal areas near North Bay and picks up NDP areas near and on Manitoulin), and even Sault Ste. Marie (more rural Conservative areas).

But yeah everything is within about 3000 votes except the Liberal stronghold of Superior North so run the best campaign and you’ll probably pick up the majority of the North.

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Well the new northern riding in Saskatchewan would have gone NDP in 2019 and Liberal in 2021 so that's a pickup for whoever best represents the voice of Saskatchewan's rural mining/hunting/fishing/non-farming communities. Nothing else changes compared to the current map I'd think; marginal Winnipeg West does become very slightly safer for the Conservatives however.

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While I'm sad to see an NDP-made Saskatoon Centre gone, I am much happier to see 3 urban only seats in Saskatoon.
I think Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River is a more NDP leaning at this point but Candidate plays a big role; in 2021 the Liberals ran a provincial NDP MLA which I think explains why a huge chunk of NDP vote shifted (not enough to win). The NDP held the seat in 2015, and was within 3% of winning in 2011 (funny enough the NDP candidate in 2011 ran for the Liberals in 2015)

In Winnipeg: Elmwood-Transcona loses Winnipeg proper areas to St.Boniface-St.Vital and stretches into rural areas adding Springfield. The proposal had Lagmodiere blvd (hwy 59) as the boundary, its now the city limits and the tracks. This has to favour the Conservatives, but the NDP have posted +40% the last two elections, but the new boundary must make this at least a little more competitive. 

The rural population of Elmwood-Transcona is like 10K at most so it probably won’t do much other than maybe evaporate the rural voice in that riding since it’s so small.

Also kinda surprised they didn’t seem to consider the Krago (or whoever drew the map for all of Canada) proposal to do 1 urban riding within Circle Drive and 2 suburban ridings completely within city boundaries, 1 on each side of the river.

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FWIW, the new Sask map could make Regina-Lewvan a bit more winnable for the NDP as it shifts a chunk of NDP friendly inner city Regina from Regina-Qu-Appele (where it did no good) to Lewvan

Gap between NDP and Cons with the old riding went from 23% in 2019 to 12% in 2021 per Ridingbuilder. Gap between NDP and Cons with the redrawn riding went from 20% in 2019 to 8% in 2021 per Ridingbuilder. So yeah it is for sure more winnable, and if the NDP can have another 2021-esque improvement, the redrawn boundaries might make all the difference since what they moved out are more Con-leaning suburbs to replace it with as you said, more NDP urban areas.

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Newfoundland and Labrador out.

A reversion to 2012 boundaries in Central Newfoundland along with some changes in the St. John’s area to avoid splitting Paradise and the Harbour.

Kinda funny they managed to get exactly identical populations in the 2 St. John’s tidings.

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How is it possible for Churchill River to now be notionally Liberal? In the 2021 election the Tory MP won by 22 points 49% to 27%. How can a relatively marginal change in the map turn that into a double digit Liberal lead??!

They removed the most densely populated part of the riding, halving the population of it. So not really a marginal change.

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The Newfoundland and Labrador commission will be to blame, historically, as the reason for the death of representation by population (read equity in voting).  Shameful.  Labrador has no legal protections being so small (unlike the PEI or territories).  Still not sure how they get away with this.  Other commissions are noticing that they can get away with these minuscule ridings (Ontario with new Far North riding) and Manitoba's North now, we will see this more and more, to the detriment of people living in the rest of Canada.  Other areas across the country have no problem crossing big bodies of water within a riding or huge islands - otherwise we'd have dozens of riding for Nunavut, or massive geographical areas (Northern Quebec riding, for example).

Everywhere you just mentioned (with the exception of PEI) is probably more similar to the territories than not in terms of geography, population density, transport links, Indigenous population, etc.