2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[Devils30]

I feel like the Dems should ask the courts for a 4-3-1, or at worst 4-4 map and if they say no, at least push the GOP into agreeing to a 5-3 with part of Madison going into the 3rd.

[Devils30]

Here's my attempt at a map of districts as compact as possible. It does however split Madison and Milwaukee.

 

The threat of the WI Supreme Ct doing this if Dems take control in 2023 might just get the GOP to agree to a deal where they keep 5-3 but make WI-3 a Biden seat with western Dane. The court is unlikely to do anything agreed to by Evers and the GOP.

[Devils30]

The Wisconsin State Supreme Court will take original jurisdiction on the redistricting case.

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1440768976989032462?s=20

Does this apply to the Congressional maps or just state legislative?

[Devils30]

Does Evers have veto power over the maps?

yes, requires two thirds vote in legislature to override, which Republicans don't have (barely) in either chamber.

The Rs risk losing the court in spring of 2023 and then we're getting a 4-4 map.

[Devils30]

Welp this pretty much means 6-2 is guaranteed.

WI is a weird case where especially with 8 seats, political geography heavily favors Rs, and a fair map from a partisanship standpoint would be terrible from a COI standpoint.

I think the right thing to do in this case would be keep Milwaukee whole to ensure minorities get a voice, but try to get 2 D-leaning districts out of Madison and SW WI.

Honestly, I wouldn't be to upset for this ruling except for the fact the original maps were GOP gerrymanders; I really just wish the court would re-start from scratch even if they don't look at partisanship data

Wait for the spring 2023 WI Supreme Court election. If Dems win and grab the majority, these maps will be overturned.

[Devils30]

Welp this pretty much means 6-2 is guaranteed.

WI is a weird case where especially with 8 seats, political geography heavily favors Rs, and a fair map from a partisanship standpoint would be terrible from a COI standpoint.

I think the right thing to do in this case would be keep Milwaukee whole to ensure minorities get a voice, but try to get 2 D-leaning districts out of Madison and SW WI.

Honestly, I wouldn't be to upset for this ruling except for the fact the original maps were GOP gerrymanders; I really just wish the court would re-start from scratch even if they don't look at partisanship data

Wait for the spring 2023 WI Supreme Court election. If Dems win and grab the majority, these maps will be overturned.

Would they overturn the Congressional map? The current one and future one if the court just does least change is a bit better for Dems than a map drawn without consideration to partisanship, given that WI-03 is drawn as a Dem pack.

The state legislature maps are horrendous, they should be struck down without question.

I think they would and do a 4/4 map. Dems should ask the PA supreme court to counter this with a nice 11-6 D map.

[Devils30]

Are Dems waiting to file a lawsuit over these maps for 2024?

[Devils30]

Are Dems waiting to file a lawsuit over these maps for 2024?

I’m legit not sure a lawsuit is going to be filed for the congressional map. Unless they are waiting for a result on the state maps first.

I think I red if a justice is impeached that after December 1, the replacement would get appointed through like 2031. Could explain why they would wait to file that lawsuit another 4-8 weeks.

[Devils30]

Are Dems waiting to file a lawsuit over these maps for 2024?

I’m legit not sure a lawsuit is going to be filed for the congressional map. Unless they are waiting for a result on the state maps first.

I mean the current Map is the one Evers submitted under the previous courts rules, unlike the legislative maps.  Wi-03 of course was drawn to pack as many college towns with ron kind in 2010 and as we saw last year was still competitive with the new min change map and trump 2020 vote. Wi-01 also seems like it could end up competitive this decade if not next cycle.   So all things considered it's not really something urgent for dems to file a lawsuit for.

Disagree, you want Biden +10 WI-3 and Biden +6 WI-1 in 2024 not later.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/lawrencegandrea/status/1747407426016465259?t=6DQrZ7d3_vlmFeu...

Here it comes...

Smart to do it now. Dems should get a very blue leaning WI-3 with western Dane County and a slightly blue WI-1 when this ends.

[Devils30]

Make WI-3 a double digit Biden seat, then make WI-1 and WI-8 single digit seats that lean one way but winnable for the other side in 2010 and 2018 type years.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1763678946242031846?t=ztJkl-QXl9n-Mfvlh...

However,  the congressional case I'd closed for now. As some here suspected,  it likely came too late.

Oh well, it will change for 2026 almost certainly.

[Devils30]

I think this was a Purcell principle case though. The court interfering too late could have been a problem.