New Tradesports rankings

[Sam Spade]

I feel sorry for those people who bought while McCain was at 50 in December 2006.




Nah, I really don't.

[Sam Spade]

I'm now up to 20%-25% Fred Thompson doesn't ever get into the race.  I think by all accounts it is fair to say that his numbers have dropped roughly another 3-4 points the last 2-3 weeks.

Voters don't like shell games.

[Sam Spade]

Should have bought some McCain a few weeks ago after his good debate performance.  I suspect he may have more of a shot at winning the nomination than Obama does at this point in the game.

(if I actually did play the game)

[Sam Spade]

If Ron Paul gets to 10 on this thing, I may just have to actually get involved.

[Sam Spade]

If I was a betting man, I'd be looking for a precise point of droppage when to buy back Hillary, but I don't think we're there yet. (thinking after NH, at earliest)

[Sam Spade]

Seriously.  Clinton under 30 is a terrific bargain.

After she loses NH, it'll fall under 20.  Personally, I would be waiting for somewhere around 15 to start buying again.

[Sam Spade]

Seriously.  Clinton under 30 is a terrific bargain.

After she loses NH, it'll fall under 20.  Personally, I would be waiting for somewhere around 15 to start buying again.

Now might be a good point to repeat that Clinton under thirty was a terrific bargain. 

You did nail that one.    But it was even a better bargain in the low 20s a few hours ago.

[Sam Spade]

Romney and Huckabee are far undervalued.

Interesting comment, since Romney's chances of winning the nomination are pretty much nil (maybe higher than Thompson's)

[Sam Spade]

Romney and Huckabee are far undervalued.

Interesting comment, since Romney's chances of winning the nomination are pretty much nil (maybe higher than Thompson's)

An essential component to any successful argument is a well-warranted assertion.
Here are the  justifications for my sanguine view of Romney's candidacy.


Important points to consider:

1. Romney's lead in recent Michigan polls is growing.
2. Romney is polling relatively well in SC and could spoil McCain's chances there.
3. Romney is the only Republican to have waged a competitive campaign in all of the first three primary or caucus states.
4. Romney's vast personal resources give him a cash spigot that can be turned on at will. This will be a huge advantage as the campaign drags into February.
5. If Romney bests McCain in Michigan and topples Giuliani in Florida, Romney will once again become the de facto GOP establishment pick.

If Romney wins tomorrow, I put the odds of him winning the nomination at 45%.

Romney's relentless use of the cash spigot for a year hasn't got him above his top of 20% nationally and 30% in most states (sans Utah/Idaho).  What is going to change this? 

And how is Romney going to win when the race narrows down?  The Evangelicals supporting Huckabee aren't going to support him over McCain (or interestingly enough, probably Giuliani).  The McCain and Giuliani moderates and Indys may support him over Huckabee, but I can guarantee you that either McCain or Giuliani will get out, but not both of them.  Romney isn't going to be the pick from any "brokered convention" - the other candidates hate his guts.

Moreover, out of all of the candidates running, Romney clearly has the most GOP establishment support of all of them.  How much GOP establishment support, in the end, is going to go to a candidate who is getting slaughtered in the general election.

Personally, I now think Romney will win Michigan narrowly (since Dick Morris says that McCain will), but I don't really see how a narrow win is going to change the dynamic presently going on.  Moreover, Romney is not going to be a major factor in South Carolina IMHO - and a divided South Carolina primary actually works to McCain's favor above any other candidate (like a divided primary in most states should work to Romney's favor.

That's my thoughts.  Although, if you believe Romney is going to win Michigan, I would buy today and sell Thursday.  There should be some movement there.

[Sam Spade]

Romney at 90.0 to win Michigan

Thank you, Inks, for letting us know.

[Sam Spade]

Romney at 90.0 to win Michigan

Thank you, Inks, for letting us know.

not sure I understand.  but I'm sure it's just another of your 9380938 underhanded shots from the sidelines recently so I'll let it go.

Remember New Hampshire....  93%... 94%.... 95%.... 96% 

[Sam Spade]

Should've listened to JJ again.  Of course, first I have to get an account there.

[Sam Spade]

Should've listened to JJ again.  Of course, first I have to get an account there.

When J. J. talks, people listen.

Of course I listen, and everyone should listen, but I suspect McCain's final margin will be closer to mine than yours. 

[Sam Spade]

Should've listened to JJ again.  Of course, first I have to get an account there.

When J. J. talks, people listen.

Of course I listen, and everyone should listen, but I suspect McCain's final margin will be closer to mine than yours. 

90% in, it's at 3%.  So far, I'm 1.5% off my midpoint.   We'll see.

Problem is half of the results left will be from Horry County... 

[Sam Spade]

Should've listened to JJ again.  Of course, first I have to get an account there.

When J. J. talks, people listen.

Of course I listen, and everyone should listen, but I suspect McCain's final margin will be closer to mine than yours. 

90% in, it's at 3%.  So far, I'm 1.5% off my midpoint.   We'll see.

Problem is half of the results left will be from Horry County... 

97% in with a 3% lead.  Accolades now?

Well, considering I've gotten everything wrong so far this year (not as bad as ARG however), I'm finally glad to "at least" come close to getting a result right. 

[Sam Spade]

Why is Giuliani higher than Huckabee?  Neither of their chances are great, but I honestly Giuliani is completely done while Huckabee has a very, very slight chance.

New product, effectively. Once tested, the numbers will soar or plummet.

Yep.  Hard to tell right now, but I suspect if Giuliani loses FL (which is in no way a certainty) it will effectively become two-person. 

Huck is done, quite frankly - scaling down operations in Florida shows real weakness to me. He'll probably continue, however, and keep trying to garner delegates in the hope of a brokered convention, which will only possibly happen if Giuliani wins FL.

[Sam Spade]

Why is Giuliani higher than Huckabee?  Neither of their chances are great, but I honestly Giuliani is completely done while Huckabee has a very, very slight chance.

New product, effectively. Once tested, the numbers will soar or plummet.

Yep.  Hard to tell right now, but I suspect if Giuliani loses FL (which is in no way a certainty) it will effectively become two-person. 

Huck is done, quite frankly - scaling down operations in Florida shows real weakness to me. He'll probably continue, however, and keep trying to garner delegates in the hope of a brokered convention, which will only possibly happen if Giuliani wins FL.

I'm not so sure that's the case; if Romney wins Florida, it might throw off enough of McCain's momentum for Giuliani to regain his footing in NY and NJ, at least.

I doubt if Romney wins FL, Giuliani will be able to regain his footing anywhere.

[Sam Spade]

Why is Giuliani higher than Huckabee?  Neither of their chances are great, but I honestly Giuliani is completely done while Huckabee has a very, very slight chance.

New product, effectively. Once tested, the numbers will soar or plummet.

Yep.  Hard to tell right now, but I suspect if Giuliani loses FL (which is in no way a certainty) it will effectively become two-person. 

Huck is done, quite frankly - scaling down operations in Florida shows real weakness to me. He'll probably continue, however, and keep trying to garner delegates in the hope of a brokered convention, which will only possibly happen if Giuliani wins FL.

I'm not so sure that's the case; if Romney wins Florida, it might throw off enough of McCain's momentum for Giuliani to regain his footing in NY and NJ, at least.

I doubt if Romney wins FL, Giuliani will be able to regain his footing anywhere.

Possibly not, and he might not bother. But I think it's at least possible, if not likely.

Look at it this way (taking all ridiculous possibilities into account) -

If Romney wins FL, Huckabee and Giuliani may stick in just to poach delegates and see if they can't become kingmaker at the convention like Edwards (or stop Romney, either at the convention or during the campaign, because I suspect both candidates don't like him). 

Both Huckabee and Giuliani have no money left, and if Giuliani doesn't win Florida, he has no chance of anything left (Huckabee already doesn't in this scenario, but he'll probably still compete because I think he can get some delegates in this scenario).

If McCain wins FL, it's over.

If Giuliani wins FL, chaos will return somewhat.  Fairly decent chance we head towards the brokered convention.  Still, Huckabee won't have money, but maybe Giuliani will get some cash with a win.  At least enough to continue (actually both will probably continue through Feb. 5 - why, I don't know).  But this scenario is precisely the reason why Giuliani has viability (however small) and Huckabee doesn't, IMHO.

If Huckabee wins FL,... well, that isn't happening.

[Sam Spade]

Long term, buy Clinton and McCain.

After tonight may be a good time to buy Clinton again, actually.

[Sam Spade]

Brokered Dem. convention is still at 15.0.  How is there going to be a brokered convention with only two candidates?  Doesn't one of them have to win a majority of delegates?

You might need 2/3 but I'm not sure.

They did away with the 2/3rds requirement a while ago.  I forget when.

[Sam Spade]

Brokered Dem. convention is still at 15.0.  How is there going to be a brokered convention with only two candidates?  Doesn't one of them have to win a majority of delegates?

You might need 2/3 but I'm not sure.

They did away with the 2/3rds requirement a while ago.  I forget when.

I think one of the parties still has it, possibly the Republicans.

There is another possibility, the unpledged delegates may constitute enough so that neither group of pledged delegates has enough to elect.

You know, I really don't know the exact numbers of the delegates off the top of my head.  I'll do some math over the next few days on this stuff.

[Sam Spade]

Buy Clinton.

No kidding.  I didn't realize she'd fallen that low.

[Sam Spade]

I guess then, the time to buy Hillary is a few days after February 12, roughly?

Of course, I got burned waiting on her after New Hampshire...

[Sam Spade]

I wouldn't bet anything trying to predict the habits of Wisconsin voters - it's a foolhardy exercise.