538.com map

[daboese]

I don't think it is a good idea to take the regression results...
The electoral results, BTW at the top of the page do not come from them, but from the number of Monte-Carlo simulations they ran.

[daboese]

I am not quite sure about 538.com right now- the snapshot values seem to be equal to the projection values?!?

[daboese]

Where is he gone?
Looks like Obama has been gaining too much for him to continue.

[daboese]

He puts every poll into his formula, which I can understand.

Then he weights it by his own gut feeling (and the model numbers), and the model itself weights it by the past performance of the pollster.

It's mathematical with a slight dem lean (which Nate has- likely by his weighting scheme), but if you count perhaps one point of his prediction towards McCain, you will probably get to where the race really is. And that is still in Indiana at Obama +0.6 (which is pretty much tied), NC at 0.7, FL at +1.8, OH at +2.6. I guess, by election day, some of those toss-ups will change back to red again.
However, it looks like in CO and VA Obama is more than five points ahead, which is statistically significant.