Can Biden do better than Bredesen in Williamson County vs. Trump?

[Tekken_Guy]

So someone mentioned the idea of Williamson County flipping. Obviously that isn’t going to happen, but can Biden do better than Bredesen here at least?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Biden got 38% in 2020. Bredesen got 40% in 2018, so I’m pretty confident Biden will beat that

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden got 38% in 2020. Bredesen got 40% in 2018, so I’m pretty confident Biden will beat that

If we get 150 M votes like in 20 we will win it if Gloria rins, not 122M we got in 2022

But you never know because each Eday product a different map

[Unelectable Bystander]

Biden got 38% in 2020. Bredesen got 40% in 2018, so I’m pretty confident Biden will beat that

Biden received 36%.

[Unelectable Bystander]

In 2020 Williamson was still 3 points to the right of the state. In every other race over the last 4 cycles, including the 2020 senate race, it has been at least 6 points to the right of the state. The supposed leftward trend in Williamson is specific to Trump. Even if it trends left against Trump again, Biden isn’t carrying 40% here unless he’s losing by 15 statewide.

The entire premise of this thread assumes that democrats can replicate 2018 blue wave performances, an atlas obsession. Yes, Biden can outrun Bredesen in Williamson, but saying this is like saying he can lose Tennessee by 11 points, carry Knox county, or even carry Ohio.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Biden got 38% in 2020. Bredesen got 40% in 2018, so I’m pretty confident Biden will beat that

Biden received 36%.

Well still, the point stands Williamson has been steadily shifting left and I think Biden can do better than 40%

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I lean towards saying he won't come within 18 points in Williamson County.  Republicans did very well in Williamson County in all races in 2022.  Andy Ogles (!) even outran Trump by 7 points- and Mark Green outran Trump by 13 points- in the Williamson County portion of his district.

TN-5 2020-PRES to 2022-HOUSE swings by county:
Davidson: D+1
Lewis: D+1
Wilson: R+2
Marshall: R+2
Maury: R+2
Williamson: R+7

That is one example of why I think Williamson County was a real bright spot for Republicans in the 2022 elections.  Andy Ogles basically ran even with Trump in the rest of the district, but put up a very strong performance in Williamson County.  On the other hand, Ogles bombed in the also heavily Democratic trending Southern Davidson County.  He lost that portion (which was almost certainly easily carried by Mitt Romney) by 22 points, even doing a point worse than Trump in 2020.  Now, I will caveat that his opponent, Heidi Campbell, represented much of that territory in the State House.  But, Ogles only outran Trump by 2 points in Maury County, where he served as the county mayor.

I view the 2016 and 2020 swings as different halves of the same thing.  In 2016, Clinton only barely got a higher vote share than Obama (29% vs. 27%).  In 2020, Trump's vote share only barely decreased (62% vs. 64% in 2016).  That suggests to me that there were a lot of Romney-3rd Party-Biden voters that essentially made their anti-Trump swing over two presidential elections.  Even if Trump is the Republican nominee again, I just can't see another ~10 point swing leftwards.

Since 2016, here are the margins in gubernatorial, presidential, and senatorial races in the county:

2016-PRES: R+35
2018-SEN: R+18
2018-GOV: R+32
2020-PRES: R+26
2020-SEN: R+35
2022-GOV: R+37 (also, the first time since 2014 that Williamson County trended rightwards according to Dave Leip's maps)

For people who say that it is just downballot lag, if we take out the presidential elections, the county has actually consistently moved slightly to the right in downballot races over the last few years, from R+32 in 2018 to R+35 in 2020 to R+37 (and 0.01 from rounding to R+38) in 2022.