Romney's chances in Wisconsin

[pepper11]

You have to factor in the exit poll Barrett bias. The exits are great news for Romney. If he is only down by 6 in the exits and those exits have a 12 point Barrett bias, that means Romney is actually up by about 6. This extrapolation may be off by a point or so, but Wisco is a toss-up, maybe lean very slightly Romney.

[pepper11]

You can laugh at the numbers all you want. Go believe those PPP polls. Obviously there will be a lot of events that may change the course of the election in the next 6 months. But at this point, the true weighted exit polls show that the people that voted today would have picked Romney over Obama. I'll take that as a more accurate view of the electorate than any automated phone survey anyday.  If Wisco voted tomorrow, Romney wins. And I guarantee Team Obama thinks its a toss us.