2018 Senate Rankings

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

These are not official at this time (i.e. no google doc is being created yet). Just a rough layout.

Safe D (10): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, MN, VA
Lean D (5): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1)
Toss-Up (3): ND, WV, AZ
Lean R (2): IN (even), OH (R+1)
Likely R (3): UT, AL, MO (R+2)
Safe R (5): MS, TN, NE, TX, WY

*Old Post, See Update on Page 5*

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ My standard for Safe D/R is pretty high. CA's YUGE dem bench + top-two primary (I expect Feinstein to retire), and the possibility of a Matheson run in Utah is enough to justify some caution at this very early juncture.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

>California
>Likely D

The top two primary is a ticking time bomb.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I said I expect Feinstein to retire. Obviously if she runs the risk is gone.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Moving ND and WV to Lean R to acknowledge Trump cabinet possibilities. Either would move to Likely R after the senate confirms such a pick.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Moving ND/WV back to Toss-Up, as Trump has decided that those senators won't be part of the cabinet.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ TX isn't happening. Barring some R from another senate class in a competitive-enough state abruptly dying or resigning, the only path for a dem majority in the senate goes through a three-way race in Utah, probably involving Hatch making it through his primary by a hair (goes into the general very damaged), a strong McMullin Independent Candidacy, and Matheson being the dem nominee.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Moving Ohio to Lean R. Republicans are now favored to gain 3 seats.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NV: Toss-Up to Lean D
AZ: Lean R to Toss-Up

Democrats are still in a tough spot, as three of their senators are favored to lose, while another two have 50-50 odds. But the two vulnerable R seats are looking better for Ds with each passing day.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Based on DDHQ poll, AL moves from Safe R to Likely R.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With Feinstein announcing that she will run for re-election, California moves from Likely D to Safe D.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

As my ratings become official with the release of my usual Google Doc, I am moving Minnesota to Safe D due to the weak republican field:

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA
Lean D (5): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1)
Toss-Up (3): ND, WV, AZ
Lean R (2): IN (even), OH (R+1)
Likely R (3): UT, AL, MO (R+2)
Safe R (5): MS, TN, NE, TX, WY

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WV is safe R

Certified Troll

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WV is safe R

Certified Troll

lol, how is it trolling? WV was the most heavily Republican state in the entire country. Even Republican in drag (and now literal Republican!) Jim Justice who fits the state like a glove couldn't even crack 50% due to being weighed down by having the letter of the anti-white hate group next to his name. Manchin is DOA. That's why I support Paula Jean Swearengin in the primary. If she wins the primary, everyone will accept the race is a lost cause rather than throwing money down the sinkhole trying to save Manchin like they wasted on Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor. Manchin must be triaged for the sake of our other incumbents and precious few targets.

Justice didn't crack 50% because parts of the liberal base bolted him for the green party ticket (Heck, the Atlas Average Endorsement Map endorsed the Green Nominee). The fact that he won even with that happening shows that Dems are still viable in West Virginia. And no one had any way of knowing he would eventually switch parties at the time.

Also, Manchin is very popular. I understand that Jenkins is a top republican recruit, but when both candidates are popular, voters tend to stick with the incumbent. It will be close, don't get me wrong, but at this point I expect Manchin to eke it out, 50-48 or so.

Also, if the Dems need to triage someone, it's McCaskill, not Manchin.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Latest ratings:

Arizona - Tossup
California - Safe D
Connecticut - Safe D
Delaware - Safe D
Florida - Leans D
Hawaii - Safe D
Indiana - Tossup
Maine - Likely I
Maryland - Safe D
Massachusetts - Safe D
Michigan - Likely D
Minnesota - Safe D
Mississippi - Safe R
Missouri - Leans D
Montana - Leans D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Tossup
New Jersey - Likely D
New Mexico - Safe D
New York - Safe D
North Dakota - Tossup
Ohio - Leans D
Pennsylvania - Leans D
Rhode Island - Safe D
Tennessee - Safe R
Texas - Safe R
Utah - Safe R
Vermont - Safe I
Virginia - Likely D
Washington - Safe D
West Virginia - Likely D
Wisconsin - Leans D
Wyoming - Safe R

Lol

Republicans have no chance whatsoever of unseating Tammy Baldwin.

Yep. Just look at Senator Feingold, who defeated Ron Johnson in a landslide. Or wait...

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With Ben McAdams opting to run in UT-4, it's clear that dems won't have a serious candidate in the senate race. So it moves from Likely R to Safe R:

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA
Lean D (5): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1)
Toss-Up (3): ND, WV, AZ
Lean R (2): IN (even), OH (R+1)
Likely R (3): AL, MO (R+2)
Safe R (6): MS, TN, NE, TX, WY, UT

Barring an utter GOP implosion, the only path to a democratic senate majority goes through the Alabama Special Election.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With Ben McAdams opting to run in UT-4, it's clear that dems won't have a serious candidate in the senate race. So it moves from Likely R to Safe R:

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA
Lean D (5): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1)
Toss-Up (3): ND, WV, AZ
Lean R (2): IN (even), OH (R+1)
Likely R (3): AL, MO (R+2)
Safe R (6): MS, TN, NE, TX, WY, UT

Barring an utter GOP implosion, the only path to a democratic senate majority goes through the Alabama Special Election.

Wulfric is wrong again. Arizona special or Tennessee with Bredesen, or Mississippi special in a McDaniel vs. Presley race.

Until such time that we actually get a surprise resignation or death, I operate on the assumption that it will not occur. As for Bredesen, I'll believe he's running when and if he actually enters.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

As announced, Arizona moves to Lean D following Flake's retirement.


Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA
Lean D (6): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (2): ND, WV
Lean R (2): IN (D+1), OH (even)
Likely R (2): AL, MO (R+1)
Safe R (6): MS, TN, NE, TX, WY, UT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Not counting the upcoming Alabama Special...here is what I see.

Arizona: Lean D: Even if Flake wins the primary, pro Ward voters simply will not vote for him, and Simena's the strongest possible recruit (except for maybe Janet Napolitano, but she now lives in California)

California: Safe D: This race almost certainly will be D v D, especially now that De Leon is in... If Steyer or Sanberg jumps in, don't be surprised if Feinstein finishes third given the former two's more unlimited resources.

Connecticut: Safe D: This isn't the Governor's race, which easily could be a GOP pickup...Murphy should be fine.

Delaware: Safe D: If Beau Biden were still alive, this could have been interesting. Would he have challenged Carper?

Florida: Tossup: If Rick Scott runs, which it looks like he will, this race will be the hinge on how the night goes. If Republicans are beating expectations, Scott wins, but if Democrats are having a good night, or the night is neutral for both sides, Nelson wins.

Hawaii: Safe D: Soon, however, Democrats might be wishing Colleen Hanabusa challenged Hirono in the primary instead of running for Governor.

Indiana: Lean R: Joe Donnelly isn't dead yet, but he's an underdog to both Luke Messer and Todd Rokita, and even money against Mike Braun at this point.

Maine: Safe I: Unless an ambitious Democrat decides to challenge King, Paul LePage reverses course about running, or Olympia Snowe decides she's had enough retirement, King is winning easily.

Maryland: Safe D: Cardin probably should retire and make room for someone like Martin O'Malley, but he will win re-election easily.

Massachusetts: Safe D: While as a national lightning rod, her margin of victory may be in doubt, Elizabeth Warren's safety is not in question.

Michigan: Leans D: Stabenow is the favorite, but the potential candidacies of Kid Rock and Fred Upton both loom.

Minnesota: Likely D: Klobuchar is more popular than Stabenow, and has weaker potential opponents, plus unlike in Michigan, Hillary did carry the state.

Mississippi: Safe R: The only drama is if Wicker gets a primary challenger...like Chris McDaniel.

Missouri: Likely R: Hawley is far stronger than Akin, and McCaskill's strategy of messing with the GOP primary to ensure a victory won't work, because Austin Petersen has no money and no base.

Montana: Tossup: Matthew Rosendale certainly can beat Tester, but he's no lock to win the primary. If Rosendale doesn't win the primary, this race moves to Likely D.

Nebraska: Safe R: The big drama is if Deb Fischer draws a primary challenger. Bannon's looking, but it would behoove him to wait until 2020, when Sasse is up for re-election.

Nevada: Lean D: The Silver State's demographics are slipping away from Heller, and while he should win the primary, Jackie Rosen is a very strong contender.

New Jersey: Lean D: Assuming Menendez is convicted, the Democrats are narrow favorites, depending on who Governor Murphy appoints, while if he's acquitted, a scandal scarred Menendez will probably be under pressure to step aside, making this an open seat, in which Democrats would probably range from narrow underdogs (if Kean or Todd Whitman was the GOP nominee), to heavy favorites (if Christie was the GOP nominee).

New Mexico: Safe D: The only way this gets competitive at all, is if Susana Martinez jumps in.

New York: Safe D: Gillibrand is a mortal lock.

North Dakota: Lean R: Heitkamp may be a skilled retail politician, but North Dakota is very-GOP friendly, and whoever the GOP nominates (unless it's Ed Cramer) will be a better candidate than Rick Berg.

Ohio: Tossup: Brown probably is an underdog, but what's keeping this race in Tossup status is Mandel's poor skills as a candidate, having blown a winnable race against Brown in 2012.

Pennsylvania: Lean D: Casey is favored over Barletta, and heavily favored over Christiana and Saccone (?).

Rhode Island: Safe D: I don't know how Whitehouse loses.

Tennessee: Safe R: Even if Bredesen runs, Tennessee is just too Republican. Think of the Hawaii Senate race in 2012.

Texas: Likely R: Ted Cruz certainly can lose the primary, and if he does, Beto O' Rourke instantly becomes the favorite. Even if Cruz doesn't lose the primary, there's still a narrow path to victory for O'Rourke.

Utah: Safe R: Even if Hatch did step aside, Democrats would have no match.

Vermont: Safe I: Like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders is such a lightning rod, and Vermont is so pro-Sanders normally, that while the margin may vary, Sanders will win.

Virginia: Likely D: While Corey Stewart won't win, a stronger candidate, like Stephen Newman, Kirk Cox or Jim Gilmore could...

Washington: Safe D: Cantwell currently doesn't have a GOP opponent.

West Virginia: Likely R: Manchin has the unfortunate circumstance of having two strong opponents, plus a primary threat.

Wisconsin: Lean D: Leah Vukmir isn't quite the strongest foe, but Trump did win the state. If Scott Walker jumps in, this rating flips to Lean R.

Wyoming: Safe R: Watching paint dry will be more interesting than this race.

Arizona moves to Safe D (at least until another Republican, like Jeff Dewit or Martha McSally jumps in), with Flake announcing he will not run for re-election.

A Safe D category is supposed to something that it's almost impossible for a race to get out of......Jeff DeWit jumping in is not "almost impossible".

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Alabama moves from Likely R to Lean R based on the recent crop of polling:

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN
Likely D (5): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA
Lean D (6): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (2): ND, WV
Lean R (3): IN (D+1), OH (even), AL
Likely R (1): MO (R+1)
Safe R (6): MS, TN, NE, TX, WY, UT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In a stunning development for the GOP, the Alabama Special is now a Toss-Up Contest:

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN
Likely D (5): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA
Lean D (6): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (3): ND, WV, AL
Lean R (2): IN (D+1), OH (even)
Likely R (1): MO (R+1)
Safe R (6): MS, TN, NE, TX, WY, UT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

As I've said elsewhere, AL goes back to Lean R. If this AR Special actually happens, I'd start the race off at Likely R.  Rs would have hefty edge because it's AR, but could be opportunity for Beebe/Lincoln/Pryor to return to politics.

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN
Likely D (5): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA
Lean D (6): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (2): ND, WV
Lean R (3): IN (D+1), OH (even), AL
Likely R (2): MO (R+1), AR*
Safe R (6): MS, TN, NE, TX, WY, UT

* Not yet officially scheduled

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here's the REAL 2018 Senate map:

If this is supposed to be some sort of parody of Atlas, I haven't really seen people declaring Heller strongly favored, declaring Barrasso to be in danger, or declaring Sheldon Whitehouse to be vulnerable.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With the entrance of Phil Bredesen, Tennessee goes from Safe R to Lean R.

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN
Likely D (5): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA
Lean D (6): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (2): ND, WV
Lean R (4): IN (D+1), OH (even), AL, TN
Likely R (2): MO (R+1), AR*
Safe R (5): MS, NE, TX, WY, UT

* Not yet officially scheduled

If Democrats can pull off an upset in Alabama or if the AR Special actually happens, the Democrats can lose McCaskill and still get a Senate majority.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

MN-Special starts out at Likely D.

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA, MN-Special
Lean D (6): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (2): ND, WV
Lean R (4): IN (D+1), OH (even), AL, TN
Likely R (2): MO (R+1), AR*
Safe R (5): MS, NE, TX, WY, UT

* Not yet officially scheduled