Rasmussen Says Specter May Have Made a Mistake

[TeePee4Prez]

I don't want to jinx it just yet because Specter has a habit of surviving but...

Adios, Arlen!

Phil, do you really think a far-right Pat Toomey-type is going to win statewide in PA? Would you rather have the Democrats win another seat than have Specter as your candidate?

The funniest thing is that Arlen Specter has actually move quite a bit to the right over the past 10 or 15 years. He is no liberal.

See my sig.  I don't understand it either.  But... OK.  Whatever works... Kratovil, Schauer...  I'm sure there will be more.

[TeePee4Prez]

I think that in the ensuing general the Republican will most likely be beaten by a moderate Democrat. :-D  And yes those are high hopes lol

Nominate Wagner and even in a good year for the GOP, I'll likely give the race to the Dems against a conservative or even against Specter. That being said, Wagner keeps saying he's leaning more towards the Gubernatorial race.

I could see a strong leftist 3rd party emerge with Wagner is the Dem nominee.  I still think the danger lies with him being too conservative to hold the Dem base together which a lot of Dems, including myself, sucked it up for Casey Jr. to see Rick Santorum out of the Senate.  I'm not so sure that will happen with Specter or even a conservative GOP nominee for that matter.  PA has changed dramatically since the Bob Casey Sr. days and the old conservative Dems are a dying breed.  That said, look for 1988-like Presidential results for PA in a Wagner-Specter matchup in the General.  I'd actually be undecided in that case and I'd have to see a debate.        I hate to sound cocky, but look at the Obama results.  We did it while losing the West, some counties we NEVER lost until now. 

If it were up to me, I say clear the field for Joe Torsella.  No surprise.  A few small things I don't agree with him on, BUT I think he holds the base and is our best chance at getting votes in the Bob Casey-esque areas of the state.  Schwartz, while a good Congresswoman and fundraiser would have a few bumps in other parts of the state, but would prevail over most candidates.  She along with Joe Sestak would be my 2nd tier choices.  Pat Murphy would be a good choice, but needs some experience and leaves a seat wide open.   

[TeePee4Prez]

I hate to sound cocky, but look at the Obama results.  We did it while losing the West, some counties we NEVER lost until now.

Yeah, well, not every election is going to be like 2008. Wake up.

I was pointing at the demographic shifts in the state.  A pro-life Dem might in fact have trouble holding the base this time around.  That's what I was hinting at.  Yeah, certain districts they are clearly necessary I have to admit, but statewide there maybe some base issues if Wagner were the nominee.

[TeePee4Prez]

Fair enough but I support the government paying for third party primaries as well as funding the GOP and Dem primaries.

Problem is, third parties generally have a hard enough time attracting one candidate for most offices, so even so-called parity in primary financing is still an advantage for the duopoly as they would still get a disproportionate benefit in government sponsored publicity.

...then that's their problem. Sorry.

And what about the taxpayers who don't belong to any political party?  Why should they have to pay for what should be party expenses?

I'm sorry if this sounds nasty and simplistic but that's the breaks.

I understand that parties are private organizations but having to choose between not funding them (which would be a disaster for many state parties) and having people that aren't even members help decide the nominee is awfully unfair.

it is only fair that independents should be able to participate in how they are governed.

I guess we have to apply that to Dems and Republicans as well.

Great time to discuss this..

Here in Philly, we're going to have a very interesting DA primary. Five Dems are running and no Republican (so far...but we're probably not running anyone for strategic purposes). Even with a Republican running, the chances of a Dem victory are insanely in their favor. I attended a forum last night in which four of the five candidates exchanged ideas. I sat there thinking to myself how this has an impact on my life as a Philadelphian but I don't even get a say besides possibly volunteering for one of them. At the same time that I thought about that, I realized that I wasn't all that upset. I'm a Republican and I ought to have a say in the voting booth in my party's process. Using your argument, we'd basically have to let anyone vote in any primary and I think that's probably worse than letting Independents pick and choose what primary to vote in.

If you care that much about a race, change your party a couple times a year. It's happened enough times here. If I cared that much about my vote in the DA's primary, I would be able to leave the party. As you all know, that's not happening.

If you were a Dem, would you vote for Abraham?  Just curious.  Wouldn't it be funny if a very liberal Dem won the nomination and Lynne Abraham was written in as the Rep nominee.  I could feasibly see that happen in this case.

[TeePee4Prez]

Wow, you know a lot about this race.  All I'll say is I'm surprised none of the more conservative ones run as Republicans.  Philadelphia Democratic primaries are absolute bloodbaths, but the General is always.. Meh, Dem wins..  It's amazing someone could theoretically only pull a 20ish percent of the vote in the primary and could eventually be elected.  If anything, that would give conservatives hope in the city, but could make elections like Europe with coalition-type primaries.