Robocalling about Jeb Bush in New Hampshire

[Mr. Morden]

I'm at the Sydney airport, but my flight has been delayed for four hours, so what better way to pass the time than to read blogs about 2012....

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/jeb-bush-looking-throw-his-hat-ring_613303.html

Keep in mind, the NH filing deadline has already passed, so even if Jeb wanted to run, it's too late for him in NH.

EDIT: Looks like this rumor has made Jeb's Intrade price go up to 0.8, just behind Santorum at 0.9.

[morgieb]

I'm at the Sydney airport, but my flight has been delayed for four hours, so what better way to pass the time than to read blogs about 2012....

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/jeb-bush-looking-throw-his-hat-ring_613303.html

Keep in mind, the NH filing deadline has already passed, so even if Jeb wanted to run, it's too late for him in NH.

EDIT: Looks like this rumor has made Jeb's Intrade price go up to 0.8, just behind Santorum at 0.9.

He could still do a write-in campaign. However, it's probably too late to make an impact in the primaries before March.

I think he's got a good chance. He's a lot smarter IIRC than George and he's got a lot of money and fundraising potential.

[wildfood]

Jeb Bush would be an ideal VP pick for someone like Huntsman.

[Politico]

The Bush brand is probably damaged beyond repair.

[cavalcade]

Probably just curiosity.  I've thought about suggesting to PPP (who has denied this is them and also says it is happening in IA) that they poll Huck vs. Obama.

[Simfan34]

Jeb Bush would be an ideal VP pick for someone like Huntsman.

Too moderate. His son is already with the Huntsman campaign, I've spoken with him actually, but I feel like like Jeb has already endorsed Huntsman.

[BigSkyBob]

This is just another consequence of the Republican party's refusal to repudiate George Herbert Walker Bush after he broke his solemn vow to the voters of "No new taxes!"

[Meeker]

PPP says this ain't them.

[Whacker77]

Been a while since I posted, but any Jeb topic gets my attention.

I think there are three scenarios that are possible with this.

1.  Jeb, his team, or a donor is testing the waters for him.  Obviously, he couldn't run in New Hampshire or any of the other early states, but he could get on many of the later ballots and use the winner take all states that start in April to rack up a nomination.  Through March, it's proportional and that won't allow anyone to run away with the race.

2.  This could be a news outlet attempting to show how dissatisfied Republicans are with their field.  I know I am and so are most of those I know.  Newt?  Really?  Showing that someone who isn't running could win would only further mess with the minds of anxious Republicans.

3.  This is a theory I got from an influencial conservative writer.  The polls are being conducted by Huntsman to see how influencial a Jeb endorsement would be.  Jeb's sons have already endorsed Huntsman and Jeb might be the firepower he thinks he needs to kickstart his campaign.  I find this theory lacking because I can't see Jeb endorsing someone who has no shot at winning the nomination.

I think option 2 is the most likely.  Still, a move like this has all the hallmarks of a trial balloon.  It gives Jeb information without his fingerprints being on it.

[Link]

He could still do a write-in campaign. However, it's probably too late to make an impact in the primaries before March.

I think he's got a good chance. He's a lot smarter IIRC than George and he's got a lot of money and fundraising potential.

There is no way in heck he would jump into this mess.  People on the right do not want to talk about the elephant in the room.  Obama has solidified his foreign policy bona fides.  He is peerless.  A governor, a pizza guy, and a motley crew of congressmen cannot touch the guy in that department.

The real problem though is there seems an increasing chance that economy could really improve over the next 11 months.  If that is the case it is very unlikely a Republican challenger will win.  Why would you wish to spend millions of dollars to win a nomination when you are all but guaranteed to lose the general election?  When Jeb Bush and Christie hit the campaign trail in four years they will wipe the floor with any of the Republican candidates from this year.  They don't need to do the traditional Republican right of passage.  Mitt Romeny cannot run for president again.  If Huntsman can't stand out in this field (in a good way) he is going to get demolished by Jeb and Christie.

Bottom line, with each passing month this contest looks like a pointless and irrelevant exercise in picking who will ultimately lose to Obama.  Now if the economy tanks then we will have a ball game or things could go very strongly against Obama.  Notice how prickly Republicans get when encouraging economic data comes out... strange behavior for patriots don't you think?

[Simfan34]

3.  This is a theory I got from an influencial conservative writer.  The polls are being conducted by Huntsman to see how influencial a Jeb endorsement would be.  Jeb's sons have already endorsed Huntsman and Jeb might be the firepower he thinks he needs to kickstart his campaign.  I find this theory lacking because I can't see Jeb endorsing someone who has no shot at winning the nomination.

Call me hackish, but I'd say Huntsman's chances have been increasing with time, and if a Jeb Bush endorsement would kickstart the campaign, the second point would be a bit moot. Who came up with it, anyway?

[Meeker]

The Huntsman endorsement theory doesn't fly for a number of reasons. First, why would he poll a match-up instead of "Would Jeb Bush's endorsement make you more likely to support a candidate?". Secondly, there's no way Huntsman's campaigns internal polling is a robo outfit; serious campaigns only use live operators. Third, why is a Jeb Bush endorsement something they would even need to poll? Obviously it would be helpful for him.

[Simfan34]

www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTTG7OqABmE

Deliberately obscure. The Huntsman campaign works in mysterious ways.

[Whacker77]

Erick Erickson, someone who would like to see Jeb run, is the person who believes this might be some sort of attempt by Huntsman to guage how useful an endorsement would be.  For the reasons other listed, it doesn't fly with me either.

First, Huntsman didn't even mention his own name in the poll.  Second, Jeb's endorsement would be a big help to him so why waste money on a poll?  Third, I don't see any path for Huntsman unless he wins New Hampshire and that doesn't appear likely.  Why would Jeb risk his repuatation on a likely non-factor?

This seems like a trial balloon for a late entry, but it's most likely a news organization attempting to show how unhappy Republicans are with the field.