Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 31,847
Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
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« on: May 24, 2014, 06:09:09 PM » |
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It would depend on who the nominees were. For two generic candidates, the republican odds are about 55%. In certain situations, the odds do change. Here's a few examples:
If the republicans nominate Cruz or Santorum, drop those odds to 30%. If the republicans nominate Rand Paul or Chris Christie, drop the odds to 45%. If the republicans nominate Bush, raise the odds to 60%. If the democrats nominate O'Malley, Warren, Gillibrand, or Klobuchar, raise the republican odds to 70%. If the democrats nominate Biden, drop them to 45%. If more than one of these is true, use the average of the two %'s.
(Note: Cuomo and Schweitzer would neither help nor hurt democratic odds. Walker and Kasich would neither help nor hurt republican odds.)
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