Professor Lichtmann predicts Presidential Race for 2016 (user search)
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  Professor Lichtmann predicts Presidential Race for 2016 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Professor Lichtmann predicts Presidential Race for 2016  (Read 2199 times)
Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook
The Obamanation
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,853
United States


« on: November 03, 2016, 05:19:35 PM »
The Litchman test may be wrong for the 2nd time since its inception.

It was wrong in 2000, but that election was stolen.
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Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook
The Obamanation
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,853
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2016, 05:35:34 PM »
Quote from: SpookyWE on November 03, 2016, 05:23:49 PM
The keys don't even retroactively work: they predicted a Tilden victory in 1876, Cleveland in 1884, and Wilson in 1916.

1876 was stolen, you forgot that. Source for the other two?
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Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook
The Obamanation
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,853
United States


« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2016, 05:49:05 PM »
Quote from: SpookyWE on November 03, 2016, 05:47:27 PM
Quote from: Zombie Spenstar on November 03, 2016, 05:43:55 PM
Quote from: SpookyWE on November 03, 2016, 05:23:49 PM
The keys don't even retroactively work: they predicted a Tilden victory in 1876, Cleveland in 1884, and Wilson in 1916.

Yes, they do, if you adjust his prediction to work for the popular vote and not the EC. Tilden in 1876 and Cleveland in 1884 both won the popular vote in their elections. Wilson won his election in 1916 in both the PV and the EC. If you meant to say he predicted Hughes in 1916, then that would have been his one and only error
I'm aware that the keys are intended to count popular vote. The issue is, with the margins as close as they were in the three elections I referenced, the popular vote was almost certainly swung by suppression of the African American vote in the South.

There are factors that the keys don't consider, and voter suppression is one of them.
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