Effects of possible war with Iran
M:
OK, those of you who have been following the news from the Orient recently know that Iran is a.) harshly autocratic b.) highly unstable and c.) seeking vey hard to acquire WMD, especially nukes. What if (and I think there is a realistic possibility) Bush decides to try to launch an Osirak-style strike against Iranian nuclear installatins in Bushehr, Natanz, and Arak? What if this escalates into a full scale war? Such a war would probably mean the speedy remilitarization of Iraq at the expense of reconstruction. While air and sea combat will be decisive and favors us, there could be nasty ground fighting. It would not be entirely clear in this situation who started the war- Bush for hitting the nukes, or the ayatollahs for launching a full-scale war. What would happen in this case? Would Bush maintain popularity like FDR, or would there be a spike in approval and then a drop, like with his previous wars? What if the Iranian regime collapsed behind the lines? I assume Dean is playing this up as a new Vietnam, does that take?
BTW I am considering posting other possible foreign policy crisis scenarioes if this one is popular. Good idea or bad idea?
Wakie:
I tend to believe that the impact on Bush's popularity would depend on the circumstances leading up to the war.
If Bush were to launch a first strike war then I would expect his popularity to take a huge dip. Naturally he would retain many 'hawks' but I think the center would abandon him.
If Iran launched an invasion of Iraq or attacked America then I would expect that most Americans would support a war. Of course there will always be an element opposed to war, but the majority would rally behind Bush.
M:
I'm saying Buh hits the reactors then Iran (possibly backed by Syria- I know that's strategially moronic but the Syrians have done some stupid things under Bashar NixonNow) invades Iraq. So it's not really clear who started the war, both sides can claim the other did. But then the fighting gets nasty. So how does this effect the presidential race?
Wakie:
In a situation like that I think Bush is hurt in the polls. The guy who would actually benefit would be Clark. I think most Americans would be displeased with Bush but realize they needed a strong foreign policy (and preferably military) mind calling the shots. Enter Clark ...
M:
Could be. What if Dean is already the nominee when the strike occurs?
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