Scottish National Party leadership election, 2024

[afleitch]

Ipsos did do polling of the public and SNP 2019 voters.

There's very little difference in terms of public support (they both out poll Anas Sarwar by comparison)

Swinney's net favourables across age groups is broadly the same. Forbes' favourables are worse amongst those under the age of 55 (and negative with younger voters) but three times higher than Swinney with over 55's.

There's also very little difference with SNP 2019 voters, the only key difference is Forbes with significantly higher disapprovals than any other SNP name mentioned.

So she suffers as she did before from poor approvals from SNP voters or voter pool and high approvals from demographics less likely to vote SNP.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1786014604197310920

[afleitch]

Lovely.

She'll be back no doubt, but not quite yet.

[Torrain]

With the likely Swinney coronation, a perculiar pattern holds. For the past 34 years, every leader of the SNP has either been:

• Alex Salmond
• Alex Salmond's deputy
• Alex Salmond's assistant

Incredible how long a shadow he casts.

[afleitch]

A few points worth noting about the man. Under Swinney's first leadership, the SNP was perceived as insufficiently left wing (Alex Neil, then being on the 'left' of the party was his challenger in 2000 and Bill Wilson who challenged him in 2003 is now in the Greens)

He was also a 'gradualist'; at that time advocating independence only by referendum (rather than self declaration) which ultimately prevailed as the structure in which to advocate for independence. Regardless of frustration post 2014 it remains the only formal, internationally recognisable way it can be done as long as the British state continues to function.

Swinney's tenure saw a complete overhaul of the party structure and voting system (one member one vote rather than delegate voting) and moving away from effectively autonomous constituency based operations, which in many ways contributed to later organisational and electorate success, but also some consternation with the awkward squad.

While he has the same present backers as Humza and the same opponents as he personally did 20 years ago, many of whom are currently out of influence, he is not 'continuity' Salmond-Sturgeon-Yousaf.

He is 100% a 'party man'. That he was able to embed in the administrations after his own loss of the leadership is testament to that.

Whether that cuts through with the public is another matter.

[Chickpeas]

So what role can Kate Forbes look forward to in John Swinney's cabinet? Presumably her old position as Cabinet Secretary for Finance along with the enhanced prestige of being Deputy First Minister too?   

[Joe Republic]

Did Forbes announce Swinney as being "the man for the moment"?


(IYKYK)

[Torrain]

So what role can Kate Forbes look forward to in John Swinney's cabinet? Presumably her old position as Cabinet Secretary for Finance along with the enhanced prestige of being Deputy First Minister too?    

Feels like it, given the other options:

• Health is a poisoned chalice.
• Rural Affairs is a demotion she’s already declined.
• Education and Justice are big portfolios, but putting Forbes there would trigger kickback from the Greens and the SNP-left.
• Energy/Net Zero is a possibility, given she’d be able to recast herself as a champion of green energy as a vehicle for economic growth. But this is McAllan’s role, and they’re not going to fire/demote her, given she’ll be the party’s challenger against Forbes next time.
• Social Justice (housing, local government) is possible, but not prestigious. It’s also got responsibility for the Equalities minister, which again would inflame certain people.
• Transport would let her do the Highland infrastructures stuff she and her allies want, but would be hamstrung by the parliamentary arithmetic. The SNP right and the Tories want the A96 dualled, the Greens have ruled out voting for it. And no competent politician would want to take ownership of the ferry fiasco.
• Constitution, Culture and External Affairs is just an excuse to go abroad and have fancy dinners with businessmen and politicians - and still seems to be Angus Robertson’s retirement plan.

Getting Finance and Deputy FM means she’d get back to the heart of government, and have the chance to stand in for FMQs and the like.

[CumbrianLefty]

So, yet another coronation it seems.

Parties do seem awfully fond of them, even though their actual record can be described as "mixed".

(and then some)

[Torrain]

SNP activist Graeme McCormick is still apparently searching around for the nominations to challenge Swinney.

Unlikely to be successful, of course, but wanted to include it here - given the intriguing parallels with Swinney’s 2003 run-off with a party activist who challenged him for the leadership.

Everything about Swinney’s putative leadership has a parallel from 20 years ago, somehow.

[Frodo]

Presumably this avoids an early Scottish parliamentary election assuming John Swinney becomes head of the ruling Scottish National Party as expected, and Scottish voters don't have to worry about two simultaneous elections happening at the same time.  

[Torrain]

Exactly. Swinney will win the ballot for First Minister without bother (Tories and Lib Dems are both standing in the ballot to get some free airtime in Holyrood, which means the SNP could win without Green votes if they wanted to).

The only fly in the ointment for the SNP is that they might have to wait until the end of the month to crown Swinney - McCormick is now telling the Herald that he’s got the votes to run.

So, unless he’s full of BS (very possible) we could end up with a month of psychodrama, while the consensus candidate is dragged around the country to attend hustings with an old crank best known for his… unique rants at SNP party conference (last year he described his own party’s record in government as being like “flatulence in a trance”, whatever that means).

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm not sure that is how it would work out tbh - I'm admittedly biased as I have already expressed my dislike of coronations, but Brown is on the record as regretting not having had an actual contest back in 2007. At the time he thought as you did at the prospect of having to do debates around the land with somebody like John McDonnell, but in fact it might have done him some good to set out his stall and could have been a toughening up experience. And winning an actual leadership election provides legitimacy when things get difficult, as May may have reflected on once things got bad for her.

[afleitch]

If he hasn't got the numbers, he will now given the media attention he's got.

Either way he'll get a month of Very Serious Journalist attention, but he is not a party figure, is likely to get tanked at the vote which if anything would be a greater endorsement of Swinney by the membership, simply by way of having a vote as opposed to none.

Either way Humza continues for a month.

[CumbrianLefty]

And as I said, having an actual membership endorsement could come in useful in troubled times.

[Torrain]

Oh well - it was fun while it lasted.
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1787225770173092210
I do have some thoughts about coronations and CL’s post I’d like to ruminate more on, but today’s been too busy for more than the odd update and one-liner. Might try and follow up on that tomorrow.

[Torrain]

Humza Yousaf resignation statement expected in the chamber at 14.20.

Vote for the First Minister set for around 15.00.

Greens have confirmed they’ll abstain on Swinney’s nomination.