MS Special Election/Mike Espy (D) internal: Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) down by 2

[Zaybay]

Just another reminder that folks here were seriously arguing that Espy should drop out because he's black.

I mean he shouldn't, but let's not kid ourselves either, if Doug Jones was black, Roy Moore would have won.

I mean, that just blatantly forgets how Jones won in the first place. Jones only won 30% of the white vote, which is rather average for Democrats. What was the difference was the fact that Jones won the Black Vote by historic margins, as much as Obama did. And they turned out. If Jones were black, its possible that more Black Dems would have turned out, and he likely still would have won.

[Zaybay]

Just another reminder that folks here were seriously arguing that Espy should drop out because he's black.

I mean he shouldn't, but let's not kid ourselves either, if Doug Jones was black, Roy Moore would have won.

I mean, that just blatantly forgets how Jones won in the first place. Jones only won 30% of the white vote, which is rather average for Democrats. What was the difference was the fact that Jones won the Black Vote by historic margins, as much as Obama did. And they turned out. If Jones were black, its possible that more Black Dems would have turned out, and he likely still would have won.

Obama lost by 21 points in 2008 despite black turnout because he only got 10% of the white vote. 30% is nowhere near the average for a Democrat in Alabama. If it was, it would be a swing state.

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Admittedly, there are no race reports of AL, but I was able to find ones for MS, which gives the Democrat about 25% of the white vote, and considering AL is actually less racially polarized than MS(I know, its crazy), then I can assume for around a 27% white vote. The reason Democrats keep losing AL is that, simply put, AAs dont have the numbers along with their white allies to push the state Left. The 2017 special saw a radical event occur, however. Blacks turned out more than they did in 2008, which is what actually propelled Jones to victory.