2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election

[Franzl]

Way closer than I thought ...

But really, like Florida in 2000 ?

Venezuela's elections yesterday are not nearly as much of a joke as those of FL in 2000.

This is just plain wrong.

[Franzl]

I should note that while the "foreign precincts" are still missing in the vote total, they will not change the result, because only 100.000 Venezuela people abroad are eligible to vote.

The current Maduro-lead is over 260.000 though.

The margin doesn't really tell you much about the fairness of an election.

[Franzl]

I should note that while the "foreign precincts" are still missing in the vote total, they will not change the result, because only 100.000 Venezuela people abroad are eligible to vote.

The current Maduro-lead is over 260.000 though.

The margin doesn't really tell you much about the fairness of an election.

True, but the margin increasing in the final updates from 1.5 to 1.8% now could indicate that the Capriles-folks were too sure of a win with let's say 90% of precincts in and then some Maduro-strongholds came in.

We often see that in Virginia for example as well: Romney/McCain leading early in and then NoVa comes in and changes everything. Remember when J.J. was calling a Bradley-effect when McCain was 10% ahead in VA in 2008 and ended up winning by 6 points ?

Yes but J.J. is an idiot.