Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Virginiá]

I suspect this isn't completely true. War is negative-sum, and Ukraine's army is not a rock upon which Russia breaks itself. It's likely that even with equal or greater manpower, Russia's force has degraded in Ukraine, but that Ukraine's army has also degraded to some extent. Relative casualty rates and equipment losses/potential replacements are relevant here.

I wasn't really commenting on the condition of Ukraine's army. Like Russia can keep sustaining itself despite heavy losses even while inflicting heavy damage on Ukraine's forces, that's not in dispute here. I feel like that is basically implied in this war, actually.

FWIW I wouldn't consider Russia degrading Ukraine's military equipment a success of note. If all you're doing is breaking each other's toys and not actually achieving your military objectives, than that isn't something I would consider noteworthy. At least in the sense that, Russia's losses right now still appear to be unsustainable (in the long run) vs the damage they are doing to Ukraine's military. But, again, back to my original point, not so unsustainable that collapse is just right around the corner from the RuAF, even when it seems like that to a casual observer.

I feel like you're talking about different things here so I'm just going to leave it at that.

[jaichind]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP (2022 and 2023) and CPI 2022 for key economies
 
2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%*     +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%*    +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%*    +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%*    +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%*    +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -8.4%        +2.7%       +2.1%      +3.4%*    +3.9%          +1.6%
Aug         -8.0%        +2.8%       +1.6%      +3.4%*    +3.5%          +1.5%
Sept        -6.0%        +2.9%       +1.6%      +3.5%*    +3.4%          +1.6%
Oct          -4.5%        +3.0%       +1.7%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.6%
Nov         -3.9%        +3.1%       +1.8%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.5%

* - pre-adjustment. In early Oct UK adjusted its 2020 and 2021 GDP downward lowering the total GDP for both years.  The base effect of that change shifted the 2022 UK GDP growth upward.  All the 2022 GDP projections for the UK before Oct should really be something like 0.6% higher for a like-for-like comparison.

2023 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb          +2.1%      +2.5%        +2.5%       +2.1%     +5.2%        +1.7%
March       -1.5%       +2.5%       +2.3%        +1.9%     +5.2%        +1.8%
April         -0.6%       +2.4%        +2.2%       +1.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
May          -0.6%       +2.3%        +2.1%       +1.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
June         -1.5%       +2.1%        +2.0%       +1.2%     +5.3%        +1.8%
July          -2.5%       +1.3%        +1.3%       +0.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Aug          -2.7%       +0.9%        +1.1%       +0.5%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Sept         -3.0%       +0.3%        +0.9%       -0.2%      +5.1%        +1.5%
Oct           -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.4%      +4.9%        +1.4%
Nov          -3.2%       -0.2%         +0.3%       -0.8%      +4.9%        +1.2%
 
2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +14.6%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Aug       +14.2%       +7.9%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Sept      +14.0%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.2%      +2.3%          +2.1%
Oct        +13.9%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.2%
Nov       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.1%      +9.1%      +2.2%          +2.3%

Russia's expected 2022 GDP decline continues to converge toward less than what was expected.  Due to base effects, Russia's 2023 numbers get somewhat worse.  The total 2022-2023 Russian GDP drop is now expected to be a bit more than -7% versus ~-11% when the war started.


 The economic projections for 2022  continue to get slightly better in the collective West but 2023 gets significantly worse, especially in the EU and UK.  The inflation situation is stabilizing in Russia and USA while it continues to get worse in the EU and UK.   The COVID-19 lockdowns and real estate bust continue to hit PRC's economic prospects.  At least cheap Russian energy is helping to keep inflation under control.  Japan continues a steady decline in prospects even as CPI slowly edges upwards.

LMAO how did the UK under Truss have a higher growth rate than the US? And how is zero COVID not affecting China?

1) I think I explained the UK situation before.  This is all about base effects.  By my calculation, the UK underperformed in GDP terms in 2020 and 2021 a total of 6% relative to what was expected WO COVID-19.  In other large economies like USA and PRC, it was more like 1%.  So there is always going to be a bigger bounce back in 2022 for the UK.

2) PRC did get impacted by its unwise COVID-19 lockdowns.  It was expected to grow by 5.2% in 2022 in Feb but fell to 3.3% by Nov.  All this with economic tailwinds of being able to buy Russian energy on the cheap.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1597161254493507585
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1597020520838332417

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1597204571922657280?cxt=HHwWgMCj8ZDGtKosA...
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1597211916115615749

[Woody]

Tough day for Ukrainians today - Spirne (or "Spornoye" in Russian):

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1597218709491236864?cxt=HHwWgICq_YX9uqosA...
https://twitter.com/UnerkanntW/status/1597217199684743174
https://twitter.com/Vanroelfwolf/status/1597227546009305088

[Woody]

If Klischivka and Andriivka falls, the only thing leaving Bakhmut from an encirclement is Ivanivkse to the city's west.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1597234125613981697
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1597228173959499778?cxt=HHwWhMDQ4fmjv6...
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1597229149911126017?cxt=HHwWgsDQleHcv6...

[ꙮ]

Death, taxes, and Woodbury spamming the Ukraine War thread every time Russia advances 500m at Bakhmut.

[CumbrianLefty]

NATO should have removed and struck Putin a long time ago.

NATO is a joke.

Believe it or not, Putin *is* aware of this possibility and has taken measures against it.

If it was really as simple as "take out Putin", this would surely have happened a while ago.

[Torie]

This Andrew guy who Mr. Woodbury has so graciously shared with us above has an update, and the way I read it, is the the Wagner Group is throwing those felons they rounded up out of prison as cannon fodder against the Ukraine line to the south of Bakmut to give them something to do, and/or to make sure that they are dead before their six month "internship" is up, and supposedly they are to be set free, but it's all sound and fury signifying not much else, and Wagner is savvy enough to not mess with Bakmut itself, because then they would be utterly destroyed in short order.

Sir Wood has his little interpretations and I have mine. 

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This Andrew guy who Mr. Woodbury has so graciously shared with us above has an update, and the way I read it, is the the Wagner Group is throwing those felons they rounded up out of prison as cannon fodder against the Ukraine line to the south of Bakmut to give them something to do, and/or to make sure that they are dead before their six month "internship" is up, and supposedly they are to be set free, but it's all sound and fury signifying not much else, and Wagner is savvy enough to not mess with Bakmut itself, because then they would be utterly destroyed in short order.

Sir Wood has his little interpretations and I have mine.  

They might be rotated out for a bit, but the mobilisation order means they're there as long as the Russian government wants them there or until they get a debilitating injury. The guys with 10-year prison sentences probably aren't too devastated, but the volunteers with the 3-6 month lucrative contracts were the real losers there.

[Torie]

This Andrew guy who Mr. Woodbury has so graciously shared with us above has an update, and the way I read it, is the the Wagner Group is throwing those felons they rounded up out of prison as cannon fodder against the Ukraine line to the south of Bakmut to give them something to do, and/or to make sure that they are dead before their six month "internship" is up, and supposedly they are to be set free, but it's all sound and fury signifying not much else, and Wagner is savvy enough to not mess with Bakmut itself, because then they would be utterly destroyed in short order.

Sir Wood has his little interpretations and I have mine.  

They might be rotated out for a bit, but the mobilisation order means they're there as long as the Russian government wants them there or until they get a debilitating injury. The guys with 10-year prison sentences probably aren't too devastated, but the volunteers with the 3-6 month lucrative contracts were the real losers there.

I posted a link to an article above somewhere, where Wagner went into prisons and said if you sign up for a six month tour of duty, at the end you are free and do not have to go back to prison. That Oxford Professor also said that the Russians have three lines, with the front line being the felons, the next line being the new conscripts, and the back line the trained regular soldiers. The role of the back line is to shoot those from the front line as the retreat without authorization. I guess a codicil is to let the conscripts know that if they get too cheeky and bitchy, there will then be sent to the front line to join the felons.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This Andrew guy who Mr. Woodbury has so graciously shared with us above has an update, and the way I read it, is the the Wagner Group is throwing those felons they rounded up out of prison as cannon fodder against the Ukraine line to the south of Bakmut to give them something to do, and/or to make sure that they are dead before their six month "internship" is up, and supposedly they are to be set free, but it's all sound and fury signifying not much else, and Wagner is savvy enough to not mess with Bakmut itself, because then they would be utterly destroyed in short order.

Sir Wood has his little interpretations and I have mine.  

They might be rotated out for a bit, but the mobilisation order means they're there as long as the Russian government wants them there or until they get a debilitating injury. The guys with 10-year prison sentences probably aren't too devastated, but the volunteers with the 3-6 month lucrative contracts were the real losers there.

I posted a link to an article above somewhere, where Wagner went into prisons and said if you sign up for a six month tour of duty, at the end you are free and do not have to go back to prison.

This was true, until mobilisation. The mobilisation order extends every contract regardless of the terms under which it was signed, until the end of the "Special Military Operation." As far as I'm aware, this applies to Wagner contracts as well, although I suppose it's possible they're exempt as a PMC. We will see if that's true six months after the first of the prison contracts were issued (September, IIRC).

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-war-europe-ukraine-gas-inflation-reduction-act-ira-joe-biden-rift-west-eu-accuses-us-of-profiting-from-war/

"Europe accuses US of profiting from war"

I think this is about political cover for EU politicians on the current sanctions blowback by blaming it on the Americans.

[Torie]

https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-war-europe-ukraine-gas-inflation-reduction-act-ira-joe-biden-rift-west-eu-accuses-us-of-profiting-from-war/

"Europe accuses US of profiting from war"

I think this is about political cover for EU politicians on the current sanctions blowback by blaming it on the Americans.

How do the Biden green subsidies "destroy" EU industry?

I am not sure I see the rationale to have the US sell natural gas at below market prices to other rich nations. Each rich nation should face the consequences of its wrong headed energy policies. What should have happened is that it should have been pedal to the metal for green, the anti nuke plant craze should have been jettisoned, and the supply and infrastructure for fossil fuels set up to be used when disruptions hit like Putin fascism.

I appreciate that takes far too much planning and interim sacrifice. Biden and the bulk of the Dem party has sucked too on energy policy, no question about that. It's part of a self defeating hatred of fossil fuels while we move as fast as practicable to green.

[The Dowager Mod]

Ukrainian Grannies are tough. 
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1597189494326710272

[CanadianDemocrat]

This Andrew guy who Mr. Woodbury has so graciously shared with us above has an update, and the way I read it, is the the Wagner Group is throwing those felons they rounded up out of prison as cannon fodder against the Ukraine line to the south of Bakmut to give them something to do, and/or to make sure that they are dead before their six month "internship" is up, and supposedly they are to be set free, but it's all sound and fury signifying not much else, and Wagner is savvy enough to not mess with Bakmut itself, because then they would be utterly destroyed in short order.

Sir Wood has his little interpretations and I have mine.  

Bakhmut is a heavily fortified well defended city, going back to when Russia invaded the Donbass in 2014. The Ukrainians have been building fortifications since 2014, so trying to take Bakhmut in mass frontal assaults' is stupid.  

[It’s so Joever]

Ukrainian Grannies are tough. 
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1597189494326710272

All Eastern European grandmothers tbh. Mine sometimes scares the f**k outta me.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1597381094026141697?cxt=HHwWgoDThYnphKssAA...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1597516834596876289

[Torie]

Here's Prof Michael Clarke's update for the day. He's the best I've seen at this as an explicator.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vi1nkGo10BA

[President Johnson]

G7 Justice Ministers just held a summit in Berlin to discuss prosecution of Russian war criminals. German Justice Minister Marco Buschmann said this should include "the top", ergo the Russian regime.

(I don't know who attended on behalf the US, but it wasn't Merrick Garland)

https://twitter.com/GermanyUN/status/1597594902833266688

https://twitter.com/SoizaDavid/status/1597642709950672897

[Torie]

The Pope should just stop talking about Ukraine. He steps in it again. I wonder whether his mental acuity is in decline. This one seems at once pointless and wrong, and what on earth motivated the comment?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/29/interview-pope-francis-fury-russia

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/81db1e45-6ef9-4034-879b-82597e2b87f9

"Europe’s imports of Russian seaborne gas jump to record high"

So instead of importing Russian gas via NS2 the same gas in being imported as LNG at a higher price.

[Torie]

This article discusses the prospects of Ukraine taking back Crimea. The prospects appear grim to me, particular the bit that the bulk of the population still there wants to be Russian. The plan would be to cut Crimea off and starve it out, but that would make for very bad press. And the fall of Crimea would mean the fall of Putin, and do there is that. The last couple of sentences are mine, and not in the article.

I found the sentence below interesting however. Is that why Ukraine so far is winning the war?

A source in military intelligence is confident that Ukraine’s structural advantages, principally its ability to stage highly mobile hit-and-run attacks and break up supply lines, will prevail. “We’ve demonstrated at every stage that our tactics and focus on logistics are correct. We will show it again,” the source says.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/11/27/a-ukrainian-attempt-to-retake-crimea-would-be-bloody-and-difficult

[nicholas.slaydon]

This article discusses the prospects of Ukraine taking back Crimea. The prospects appear grim to me, particular the bit that the bulk of the population still there wants to be Russian. The plan would be to cut Crimea off and starve it out, but that would make for very bad press. And the fall of Crimea would mean the fall of Putin, and do there is that. The last couple of sentences are mine, and not in the article.

I found the sentence below interesting however. Is that why Ukraine so far is winning the war?

A source in military intelligence is confident that Ukraine’s structural advantages, principally its ability to stage highly mobile hit-and-run attacks and break up supply lines, will prevail. “We’ve demonstrated at every stage that our tactics and focus on logistics are correct. We will show it again,” the source says.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/11/27/a-ukrainian-attempt-to-retake-crimea-would-be-bloody-and-difficult

I've seen this claimed quite frequently, and it does seem to be the conventional wisdom, but is there any actual evidence to back it up? There might have been some truth to it back in 2014, but is there any evidence that it is still true today?