If Trump wins again, do we live in an 8 year cycle?

[Sir Mohamed]

If Mr. Trump is reelected, he'll be the 4th 2-term prez in a row. This never happened in US history if we only count incumbents elected to 2 full terms. So, if he wins again, is it fair to say we live in an 8 year cycle? Meaning, each prez gets almost automatically reelected unless the economy completey crashes in his first term? No matter how many scandals happen and how messy foreign policy is? It's the economy, stupid!

We could go even further and say every cycle gives each prez a 2 year window with congressional majorities. Prez loses the House in the first midterm, fails to regain a majority despite winning reelection 2 years later, and the senate goes to the opposition during midterm no. 2? Subsequently, there is 2 years of total gridlock before the opposition party manages to elect a new prez. If Trump wins reelection, his presidency could mirror Obama's downballot (even MA-Sen 2010 and AL-Sen 2017 would mirror each other). During a 2nd Trump term, the senate is likely to go blue in 2022. And by 2024, I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP lost about 1,000 state legislative seats during the Trump presidency.

What do you think?

[catographer]

I think we simply add to our collective political science knowledge, and recognize that there are no such thing as "laws" so much as "rules of thumb" when it comes to politics.

Incumbent Presidents lose only under relatively extraordinary circumstances. The 20th century had a unique combination of many Presidents losing reelection during times of economic recession, crisis, and low partisan polarization.

Hoover 1932: Great Depression.
Johnson 1968: (Dropped out) Crisis (Vietnam War).
Ford 1976: Non-elected incumbent.
Carter 1980: Economic recession, crisis (Iran Hostages).
Bush 1992: Economic recession.

If Trump loses in 2020, it will buck precedent as there is no nationally-defining crisis or economic recession. Then again, his unpopularity and its consistency is historically unprecedented, as well as the level of partisan polarization today.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think we simply add to our collective political science knowledge, and recognize that there are no such thing as "laws" so much as "rules of thumb" when it comes to politics.

Incumbent Presidents lose only under relatively extraordinary circumstances. The 20th century had a unique combination of many Presidents losing reelection during times of economic recession, crisis, and low partisan polarization.

Hoover 1932: Great Depression.
Johnson 1968: (Dropped out) Crisis (Vietnam War).
Ford 1976: Non-elected incumbent.
Carter 1980: Economic recession, crisis (Iran Hostages).
Bush 1992: Economic recession.

If Trump loses in 2020, it will buck precedent as there is no nationally-defining crisis or economic recession. Then again, his unpopularity and its consistency is historically unprecedented, as well as the level of partisan polarization today.

Also Carter 1980 is the only time the party has lost the White House after just one term since 1896