France 2012: the official thread (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 30, 2024, 04:33:41 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  France 2012: the official thread (search mode)
Pages: 1 2 [3]
Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 365574 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #50 on: May 02, 2012, 01:42:43 PM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on May 02, 2012, 01:21:36 PM
Can someone explain why the debate is just three days before the election?

Because it's not the US and French voters (or most voters anywhere) don't like election campaigns that last 2 years.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #51 on: May 02, 2012, 01:43:21 PM »
ARTE now says they are not allowed to stream the debate ... Sad

WTF ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #52 on: May 02, 2012, 01:45:56 PM »

Fuckers:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #53 on: May 02, 2012, 02:24:13 PM »
What are the 2 talking about ?

I can watch them on my TV, but I don't understand anything but a few numbers or something.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #54 on: May 02, 2012, 02:35:43 PM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on May 02, 2012, 02:28:40 PM

Wait! Wait! This sounds like a French Presidential debate...

Romney would fit in well there ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #55 on: May 02, 2012, 03:09:40 PM »
Sarkozy sometimes looks like he'd jump over to Hollande to try and strangle him.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #56 on: May 03, 2012, 12:24:40 AM »
I'm going to predict a 52.3-47.7 Hollande win.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #57 on: May 03, 2012, 11:35:00 AM »
First poll that includes interviews before and after the debate by LH2:

53-47 Hollande (sample = 1565)

Among debate watchers only (sample = 498):

52-48 Hollande

Sarkozy favorable rating BEFORE the debate: 43-54
Sarkozy favorable rating AFTER the debate: 47-52

Hollande favorable rating BEFORE the debate: 47-50
Hollande favorable rating AFTER the debate: 56-43

Sarkozy is seen as more credible, more competent and dynamic than Hollande, while Hollande is seen as more likeable, serious, sincere and whatever it means - more "Proche de vos préoccupations" and more "Rassurant" and "Proche de vos convictions politiques" than Sarkozy.

Sarkozy was seen more "Presidential" in the debate by a 50-43 margin.

Hollande wins the "who was more convincing thing" in the debate by a 45-41 margin.

The poll also says that the 498 debate watchers already were 52-48 for Hollande BEFORE the debate, so no changes there.

http://www.lh2.fr/_upload/ressources/sondages/politique_nationale/lh2yahooimpactdebatteleviseentrdeuxtours3mai2012.pdf

Plz French posters, if I made any mistake with my limited French translation skills, post what was wrong ... Wink
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #58 on: May 03, 2012, 02:17:24 PM »
Sarkozy climbing again !

New OpinionWay survey:

52.5 to 47.5 for Hollande

Hollande down by 1.5 and Sarkozy of course up by 1.5 in the past week.

http://www.ledauphine.com/politique/2012/05/03/hollande-en-tete-(52-5-)-face-a-sarkozy-(47-5-)-malgre-une-baisse
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #59 on: May 03, 2012, 02:24:02 PM »
Enter, before Keystone Phil comes in to say Sarkozy will win re-election:

http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/barometre-de-la-presidentielle-2012-V9.pdf
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #60 on: May 03, 2012, 02:30:06 PM »
Quote from: Finissons-en ! on May 03, 2012, 02:20:31 PM
If someone is able to explain me why, I'll consider him the greatest psephologist of all times.

Sarkozy ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #61 on: May 03, 2012, 02:50:53 PM »
Quote from: Finissons-en ! on May 03, 2012, 02:34:57 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on May 03, 2012, 02:30:06 PM
Quote from: Finissons-en ! on May 03, 2012, 02:20:31 PM
If someone is able to explain me why, I'll consider him the greatest psephologist of all times.

Sarkozy ?

Highlighted to make it clearer. Doesn't that sound clear in English ? Because if I spelt the sentence in French there would be no doubt on who the "him" would refer to.

OK, I read the sentence too fast. But now I understand what you wanna say.

Why is Sarkozy closing the gap ?

Sarkozy collecting most of the right- and center-voters of which there are a lot according to the first round.

Even if 15% of Melenchon's voters vote for Sarkozy, Hollande could be in trouble if many LePen voters also hold their noses and vote for Sarkozy.

But, the good thing is that Bayrou's decision today might have saved Hollande from a really close race.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #62 on: May 04, 2012, 05:08:26 AM »
There are 4 surveys out now (all conducted yesterday) and Sarkozy has an average of 47.1%

I would probably start to worry a bit if he breaks 48%, but I think Hollande has this now.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #63 on: May 04, 2012, 08:18:56 AM »
Germans strongly favor Sarkozy over Hollande (quite surprising):

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #64 on: May 04, 2012, 11:35:24 AM »


New IFOP poll:

52% Hollande
48% Sarkozy
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #65 on: May 05, 2012, 09:45:37 AM »
What about this scenario ?



"THE FINAL CHART"

Wink
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #66 on: May 05, 2012, 11:18:55 PM »
Quote from: netzero19 on May 05, 2012, 07:03:51 PM
Quote from: Le changement! C'est maintenant! on May 05, 2012, 06:54:13 PM
Quote from: Nathan on May 05, 2012, 06:21:43 PM
When, exactly, are the results supposed to start?

Official exit polls at 8 (French Time) and results quickly after.

8 AM?

You must be new when it comes to elections.

I've never heard of a country that closes at 8 AM ... Tongue
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #67 on: May 05, 2012, 11:55:40 PM »
Quote from: villagevoice on May 05, 2012, 11:47:34 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on May 05, 2012, 11:18:55 PM
Quote from: netzero19 on May 05, 2012, 07:03:51 PM
Quote from: Le changement! C'est maintenant! on May 05, 2012, 06:54:13 PM
Quote from: Nathan on May 05, 2012, 06:21:43 PM
When, exactly, are the results supposed to start?

Official exit polls at 8 (French Time) and results quickly after.

8 AM?

You must be new when it comes to elections.

I've never heard of a country that closes at 8 AM ... Tongue

Irish exit polls are released around that time of the morning because of the complex counting of STV...

But the day after the election day, right ?

Not at 8am on election day (?).
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #68 on: May 06, 2012, 03:31:34 AM »

Has someone ever closed a 28-point gap and won ?
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.045 seconds with 8 queries.