Norway Polls

[Gustaf]

Norway's system regarding constituencies's seat numbers is a work of genius, really. If your goal is presenting a clear constituency link and somewhat overrepresenting remote rural locales (done in a lot of countries, remember, more usually using some random cutoff) without distorting party strengths too badly, not much can be done to improve it.
Constituencies are allotted a number of seats based on their population and area (basically, a square kilometer is treated as a person). But the number of seats filled based on constituency results is one fewer than the total number of seats in the constituency; the remaining seats are distributed nationally as equalization seats (with a threshold), then reattributed to the parties' constituency lists based on priority. The last few individual MPs will be elected somewhat at random. As a result, thinly-populated areas are overrepresented without also overrepresenting their parties of choice.
Evidently, as in every system (that is not Hare; IIRC Norway uses Ste Lague) that distributes seats by constituencies rather than nationally, large parties are somewhat overrepresented; and there really is only one large party in Norway. Hoyre and Fremskritt are about large enough to not be underrepresented, that's it. And there aren't quite enough equalization mandates around to fix that; you could improve the system in that respect. But the effect is not huge; only very marginally larger than in Sweden. Incidentally, the more parties narrowly cross the threshold, the worse the effect is going to be as they'll all be depending on equalization seats.

But yeah, when elections are routinely close, every little bit of systemic distortion is a problem. And that does seem to be the case in Norway at the moment.

Now, back to topic. Fremskritt and the children.

Oh, I see that they have that goal in mind. But I don't think it'd be possible for one side to get a 5-seat majority with such a clear minority of the votes in Sweden*.

*Mathematically possible of course, but still quite unlikely in reality. 

[Antonio the Sixth]

You certainly know scandinavian politics better than me, so I won't contradict you. But aren't you a bit quick in saying social democracy is lost in scandinavia ? Sure, the SAP has seen its worst score since almost one century and will be out of power for a record number of years. Sure, the Norwegian Labour isn't as strong as it used to be, and even with the Centre's support it has only a razor-thin majority. Still, both parties stand a fair chance to remain governing parties (even if not as hegemonic as before). Some polls give the red-green coalition ahead, in both countries (even if some other don't). At some point between 2006 and 2010, the SAP has polled as high as 45% ! For what it's worth, Danish social-democrats should also most likely come back to power this year.

Things seem far brighter to me for the scandinavian left than for the British, Italian or even French ones (let's not even talk about the SPD ).

[Gustaf]

You certainly know scandinavian politics better than me, so I won't contradict you. But aren't you a bit quick in saying social democracy is lost in scandinavia ? Sure, the SAP has seen its worst score since almost one century and will be out of power for a record number of years. Sure, the Norwegian Labour isn't as strong as it used to be, and even with the Centre's support it has only a razor-thin majority. Still, both parties stand a fair chance to remain governing parties (even if not as hegemonic as before). Some polls give the red-green coalition ahead, in both countries (even if some other don't). At some point between 2006 and 2010, the SAP has polled as high as 45% ! For what it's worth, Danish social-democrats should also most likely come back to power this year.

Things seem far brighter to me for the scandinavian left than for the British, Italian or even French ones (let's not even talk about the SPD ).

I know a lot of Social Democrats and they're ideologically lost. That doesn't necessarily prevent them from winning elections in the short run, of course, so I don't mean in terms of electoral success.

For example, when the centre-right in Sweden won the 1976 election they were ideologically lost so their success did them no good.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Things seem far brighter to me for the scandinavian left

That things are looking well for the left in Scandinavia does not necessarly mean they look good for the Social Democrats though. Sure a switch of power is very likly in Denmark but the Social Democrats still seem to be below 30% in most polls, around 28-29% which is about the same result they had in 2001 when Fogh Rasmussen took power, and worse than they had anytime in the 90's. The left's success is more due to the Socialist People's Party (and to a lesser extent Radikale Venstre) doing well.

Likewise in Sweden, it's really the Greens growth who're giving the left marignal leads at the moment. SAP according to which poll you look at is around the same level of support as they had in the election.      

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I see. In some way, the scandinavian politics are starting to align with other countries, with weaker social-democrats, an ideological identity crisis and a surge of the ecologist or radical left parties.

[Gustaf]

Yes, I should clarify (although I did mention it!) that I'm talking about the Social Democrats rather than the general left.

Although the radical left is in tatters in Sweden as well.

[Hash]

Yes, I should clarify (although I did mention it!) that I'm talking about the Social Democrats rather than the general left.

Although the radical left is in tatters in Sweden as well.

The radical left is hardly doing better in Norway, and it's in for some very bad years in Finland.

[Gustaf]

Yes, I should clarify (although I did mention it!) that I'm talking about the Social Democrats rather than the general left.

Although the radical left is in tatters in Sweden as well.

The radical left is hardly doing better in Norway, and it's in for some very bad years in Finland.

Oh, I think they are doing better in Norway. In Sweden they haven't done well in a single poll since God knows when.

They're probably going to get rid of Lars "I'm a Communist open Castro-supporter" Ohly as party leader any day now. If they replace him with Jonas Sjöstedt they might be able to climb in polls again.

[freefair]

Oh goodness me, yestardays hideous, tragic attacks on the Norewigan Oslo administration ,and on 84 innocent members of the Young Labour party is certain to alter the overall landscape. And with the news that the perpatrator was an Christain Fundamentalist, the Progress party look unlikely to make any capital out of it.

[minionofmidas]

"Christian Fundamentalist" now? Bizarre.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think it'd be better if discussion on the atrocity were kept in one place at the moment; the thread on it is here.

This thread I'm locking for a while to avoid confusion; will probably re-open it in a few days.

Edit: I've merged that new one-post thread into this one and changed the title, as requested. The latter idea seems like a good one given everything.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

A better title than the other thread (can it be merged here?)

The most recent news
http://www.norwaypost.no/political/labour-drops-on-latest-poll-25446.html
http://www.norwaypost.no/political/latest-poll-solid-non-socialist-majority-25472-25472.html
before the shooting, has...
Labour, between 29.6% and 24.9%
Conservatives, between 28.1% and 27.0%
and the Progress Party (The party the shooter belonged to for a while) between 20.0% and 16.9%