Chicago Megathread: With CTU on strike, Lightfoot lays out her budget

[Sestak]

Who is the early favorite to win the Runoff in less than 2 months ?

I think polling has indicated Lightfoot, but not sure.

[Mr. Illini]

An additional thought: Joyce won the wards that I would have expected to go for Daley. My guess is that without Joyce in the race, Daley would have picked up a good chunk of those votes, and probably would have made the runoff. Then again, those Joyce wards are loaded with police, firefighters and other city workers. They may have felt Daley would be too beholden to business and not enough to their interests, and needed to park their votes somewhere - that happened to be Joyce.

the quip I saw was "Joyce's platform was 'hands off pensions' and Daley's platform was 'I am going to put my hands on your pensions'"

Yep. Daley was the ONLY CANDIDATE who said he'd favor amending the constitution to allow the state and city to reduce pensions of current workers. That's a no-no among city workers, obviously.

[Sestak]

An additional thought: Joyce won the wards that I would have expected to go for Daley. My guess is that without Joyce in the race, Daley would have picked up a good chunk of those votes, and probably would have made the runoff. Then again, those Joyce wards are loaded with police, firefighters and other city workers. They may have felt Daley would be too beholden to business and not enough to their interests, and needed to park their votes somewhere - that happened to be Joyce.

the quip I saw was "Joyce's platform was 'hands off pensions' and Daley's platform was 'I am going to put my hands on your pensions'"

Yep. Daley was the ONLY CANDIDATE who said he'd favor amending the constitution to allow the state and city to reduce pensions of current workers. That's a no-no among city workers, obviously.

Wait, he said that? LOL.

[Mr. Illini]

Here's the map for Treasurer...



This really highlights how much higher turnout was in white progressive wards than in minority wards. Pawar was only at 70% in his home ward and only over 60% in one other neighboring ward. Meanwhile, MCE had a swath of wards where she was over 70% and even more over 60%. Yet, they ran even.

There are some interesting trends here as well. Pawar won white progressive wards handily. MCE won black wards handily. However, Latinx and WWC wards were not unified. They were actually split by side of town (though by small margins).

Pawar took Latinx wards on the NW side, but MCE took Latinx on the SW side. Pawar took WWC wards on the NW side, but MCE took WWC wards on the SW side. I attribute this to local politics - Pawar is a north side alderman and MCE's husband is a south side state rep.

It is also worth noting that Peter Gariepy - a candidate who ran no ads - had decently high vote counts in WWC wards on the far NW and SW sides. He was the only white candidate.

Also of note is that Wards 3, 4, and 5 - majority black wards that are wealthier and lean more progressive than the rest of the south side - had relatively close margins. Compare to the rest of the south side that went overwhelmingly for Conyears-Ervin.

[Donerail]

Also of note is that Wards 3, 4, and 5 - majority black wards that are wealthier and lean more progressive than the rest of the south side - had relatively close margins. Compare to the rest of the south side that went overwhelmingly for Conyears-Ervin.

Which may relate to local organizations as much as anything. When I signed for Preckwinkle, the circulator asked me if I'd also signed for "Toni's candidate for Treasurer," meaning Pawar.

[Badger]

Should I be shocked looking at that map how many Wards Wilson carried?

[Donerail]

Should I be shocked looking at that map how many Wards Wilson carried?

Not by much. He's got money and a lot of support with the black church (those are all black wards)

[muon2]

Should I be shocked looking at that map how many Wards Wilson carried?

Not by much. He's got money and a lot of support with the black church (those are all black wards)

He also has contacts across the political spectrum and in business as well as in the churches. I've worked with him on a task force and he understands the needs of the black community, but lacks the message to make inroads in other parts of the city.

[Mr. Illini]

Should I be shocked looking at that map how many Wards Wilson carried?

Not by much. He's got money and a lot of support with the black church (those are all black wards)

He also has contacts across the political spectrum and in business as well as in the churches. I've worked with him on a task force and he understands the needs of the black community, but lacks the message to make inroads in other parts of the city.

I was surprised that he took so many wards from Preckwinkle. Regardless of her waning popularity, she’s still a major force in Cook County and within the black community.

[Continential]

Who's voters will vote for who now?

[Donerail]

Who's voters will vote for who now?

We don't really know. Lightfoot support was strongly correlated with Preckwinkle support, and vice-versa -- Lightfoot was usually second or third in the South Side wards where Preckwinkle was first or second, while Preckwinkle was second or third in Lightfoot's north side wards. The wards that went for other candidates often saw Lightfoot or Preckwinkle finish something like 5th or 6th.

[Mr. Illini]

Who's voters will vote for who now?

We don't really know. Lightfoot support was strongly correlated with Preckwinkle support, and vice-versa -- Lightfoot was usually second or third in the South Side wards where Preckwinkle was first or second, while Preckwinkle was second or third in Lightfoot's north side wards. The wards that went for other candidates often saw Lightfoot or Preckwinkle finish something like 5th or 6th.

If I had to guess, I’d say the bulk of Wilson’s voters will go to Preckwinkle. Although, it’s worth noting that they defected to Wilson in the first round despite Preckwinkle’s support among leaders within the black community. Who is to say they won’t defect again?

I have to think that Daley’s voters downtown and in copland will go to Lightfoot, but that turnout among them will be fairly low.

Where Latinx voters will go is very much up in the air.

[Mr. Illini]

WBEZ has a great interactive precinct map at the link below. So many news sources are doing our work for us these days.

https://www.wbez.org/shows/wbez-news/chicago-2019-election-results-map-what-neighborhoods-voted-and-for-whom/ad63ab9e-a924-4155-a3fe-6b7faf1e7812

Lightfoot won my precinct with 31%.

[Donerail]

my precinct went 35% to Lightfoot, 32% to Preckwinkle, 9% to Enyia, 7% to Wilson. LaShawn Ford beat several of the semi-credible candidates (Joyce, Chico, McCarthy). South Side

[Mr. Illini]

One place where the machine still works: the 11th Ward. Despite it being a much more diverse than it used to be, Daley won every single precinct there. Its' borders stand out clearly on the map because of it. Patrick Daley Thompson is the alderman there.

[Bidenworth2020]

Alright guys, who is more progressive?

[Mr. Illini]

Alright guys, who is more progressive?

Seems to be the big question lol

[MAINEiac4434]

Extremely surprising to see 1) Ramirez-Rosa endorsing Preckwinkle and 2) Preckwinkle endorsing Bernie.

[Mr. Illini]

Extremely surprising to see 1) Ramirez-Rosa endorsing Preckwinkle and 2) Preckwinkle endorsing Bernie.

The former isn't that surprising to me. He endorsed her before last Tuesday, likely as the most likely progressive candidate to make the runoff (and as the alternative to Daley). Plus, she is the head of the party, so she got a LOT of endorsements off the bat just because of that.

The latter is just a pander. Preckwinkle endorsed Hillary against Bernie last time around. And she hasn't formally endorsed Sanders this time, and likely won't.

[Donerail]

CRR's story is that he and Rep. Will Guzzardi met with Preckwinkle and agreed to endorse her after she agreed to a slate of progressive priorities, including TIF reform, a stronger sanctuary city ordinance, and $15/hour. This all happened back in October

[Donerail]

john kass has endorsed lightfoot. great news for toni!

[Zaybay]

We got a poll of the Runoff:
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000169-462f-dce6-ad69-67ff9bd90001

from Stand for Children IL

Lightfoot-58%
Periwinkle-30%
Undecided-12%

[ON Progressive]

We got a poll of the Runoff:
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000169-462f-dce6-ad69-67ff9bd90001

from Stand for Children IL

Lightfoot-58%
Periwinkle-30%
Undecided-12%

Nice!

[Duke of York]

We got a poll of the Runoff:
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000169-462f-dce6-ad69-67ff9bd90001

from Stand for Children IL

Lightfoot-58%
Periwinkle-30%
Undecided-12%

I love it. I hope that's the margin. That would be a huge blow to the machine.

[Donerail]

Stand for Children tossing in with Lightfoot is... yikes