Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/status/1605527378125459458

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1605241612371623938
https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/status/1604585585527734275
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1605483288205750274

[Epaminondas]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/target-russia%E2%80%99s-capability-not-its-intent

US policy should recognize that the Kremlin’s intent regarding Ukraine is maximalist, inflexible, and will not change in the foreseeable future. The West should stop expending resources trying to change a reality it does not control and focus on what it can shape plenty: denying Russia’s ability to wage a war against Ukraine.

Surely even you can see that you're actively misinterpreting the thrust of the article, which advocates for more military support for the Ukrainian military rather than less.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1605607510303334403?s=20&t=gVcyGImJO06_...

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/12/21/russia-nord-stream-explosions/

"No Conclusive Evidence Russia Is Behind Nord Stream Attack"

But now, after months of investigation, numerous officials privately say that Russia may not be to blame after all for the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines.
"There is no evidence at this point that Russia was behind the sabotage," said one European official, echoing the assessment of 23 diplomatic and intelligence officials in nine countries interviewed in recent weeks.
Some went so far as to say they didn't think Russia was responsible. Others who still consider Russia a prime suspect said positively attributing the attack — to any country — may be impossible.

I wonder who could it be then ?

[Logical]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/12/21/russia-nord-stream-explosions/

"No Conclusive Evidence Russia Is Behind Nord Stream Attack"

But now, after months of investigation, numerous officials privately say that Russia may not be to blame after all for the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines.
"There is no evidence at this point that Russia was behind the sabotage," said one European official, echoing the assessment of 23 diplomatic and intelligence officials in nine countries interviewed in recent weeks.
Some went so far as to say they didn't think Russia was responsible. Others who still consider Russia a prime suspect said positively attributing the attack — to any country — may be impossible.

I wonder who could it be then ?

[Logical]

Patriots and JDAM (precision aerial munitions) confirmed.
https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1605610181039198208

[Virginiá]

Good time to be a Central/Eastern European arms manufacturer

[emailking]

Zelenskyy's speech to the joint session is at 7:30 PM EST tonight.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1605648945354575880?s=20&t=gVcyGImJO06...

https://twitter.com/ichbinilya/status/1605643286865010689?s=20&t=gVcyGImJO06...

[jaichind]

[The Mikado]

That's a supermajority for Right Amount or Not Enough, fwiw.

[jaichind]

That's a supermajority for Right Amount or Not Enough, fwiw.

Yes, but it is now dead even on whether does the USA have a responsibility to protect Ukraine from Russia

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That's a supermajority for Right Amount or Not Enough, fwiw.

Yes, but it is now dead even on whether does the USA have a responsibility to protect Ukraine from Russia

Yeah, the trendlines don't look too good for Ukraine here. Let's see if Zelensky's visit changes anything.

[OSR stands with Israel]

That's a supermajority for Right Amount or Not Enough, fwiw.

Yes, but it is now dead even on whether does the USA have a responsibility to protect Ukraine from Russia

Sure but that question is vague as what does the word responsibility mean. If it means sending aid then the question about whether we are doing enough to halt the invasion is a good metric to look at, but if it means sending US troops to Ukraine then that number would be way lower

[Storr]

Interesting timing:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1605703372992135168?s=20&t=gVcyGIm...

[Storr]

I like in his speech to Congress, Zelensky framed this as a war of independence, which was obviously meant to tie the current conflict to the American War of Independence. He even specifically compared the Battle of Saratoga to the current fighting in Bakhmut, claiming it will be the turning point of the war just like Saratoga was in 1777.  

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I like in his speech to Congress, Zelensky framed this as a war of independence, which was obviously meant to tie the current conflict to the American War of Independence. He even specifically compared the Battle of Saratoga to the current fighting in Bakhmut, claiming it will be the turning point of the war just like Saratoga was in 1777.  

So we have 6 more years of war?

[Storr]

I like in his speech to Congress, Zelensky framed this as a war of independence, which was obviously meant to tie the current conflict to the American War of Independence. He even specifically compared the Battle of Saratoga to the current fighting in Bakhmut, claiming it will be the turning point of the war just like Saratoga was in 1777.  

So we have 6 more years of war?

Hopefully not.

[Hollywood]

Disclaimer: Although after the event, I didn't realize that Zelensky spoke before Congress when I wrote this post. 

Zelensky was publicly scheduled to visit Biden today. He will visit the house of representatives.  IMO, ge needs to speak in the House of Representatives like Bibi Netanyahu did 7 years ago, and plead his case to the American people.  Right now!  Why?  The Russians are currently putting immense pressure on Ukraine.  They are finally looking like a a competent armed force.  They are pushing Ukraine across the entire frontline, and they are slowly adding more troops to their offensive.  The Ukrainians need the US people to go all-in on it's defensive war against Russia.  They need an enormous amount of weapons (hundreds of billions) to stop the growing Russian forces, and the US also has to support the upcoming Polish troops about to enter Ukraine.  

I'm going to throw-out a theory for the forum.  An idea that I've had for some time.  The Ukrainians need NATO to enter the war with Russia.  It might be most prudent for Ukrainians to accept a union with Poland (NATO Country).  If Poland is allowed to annex the remaining parts of Ukraine (some kind of establishment of a 16-1700s Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth), Ukraine becomes a NATO country via Poland, and Russia has to consider a real threat.  It isn't like Poland lacks a claim on these regions given the numerous Polish individuals and minorities that live in the area (Ruthenians, Lithuanians, and sine East Slav Russians). This is the ultimate Military Trump Card. This is how the Ukrainians, and the many Polish fighting, finally and absolutely outmaneuver Russia.  

[Hollywood]

I like in his speech to Congress, Zelensky framed this as a war of independence, which was obviously meant to tie the current conflict to the American War of Independence. He even specifically compared the Battle of Saratoga to the current fighting in Bakhmut, claiming it will be the turning point of the war just like Saratoga was in 1777.  

Oh damn.  Did this already happen?  I've been sitting on this idea for months. 

[Frodo]

I think if I were Speaker Pelosi, in addition to that flag (as well as all the aid we are sending to Ukraine), I would also have handed President Zelenskyy a Ukrainian copy of Thomas Paine's most famous writings, in particular 'Common Sense' and 'The American Crisis'.  He might find inspiration in those writings during these trying times in Ukraine as they fight what is basically their war of independence against Russia, if he hasn't read them already.  

[NOVA Green]

Disclaimer: Although after the event, I didn't realize that Zelensky spoke before Congress when I wrote this post. 

Zelensky was publicly scheduled to visit Biden today. He will visit the house of representatives.  IMO, ge needs to speak in the House of Representatives like Bibi Netanyahu did 7 years ago, and plead his case to the American people.  Right now!  Why?  The Russians are currently putting immense pressure on Ukraine.  They are finally looking like a a competent armed force.  They are pushing Ukraine across the entire frontline, and they are slowly adding more troops to their offensive.  The Ukrainians need the US people to go all-in on it's defensive war against Russia.  They need an enormous amount of weapons (hundreds of billions) to stop the growing Russian forces, and the US also has to support the upcoming Polish troops about to enter Ukraine.  

I'm going to throw-out a theory for the forum.  An idea that I've had for some time.  The Ukrainians need NATO to enter the war with Russia.  It might be most prudent for Ukrainians to accept a union with Poland (NATO Country).  If Poland is allowed to annex the remaining parts of Ukraine (some kind of establishment of a 16-1700s Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth), Ukraine becomes a NATO country via Poland, and Russia has to consider a real threat.  It isn't like Poland lacks a claim on these regions given the numerous Polish individuals and minorities that live in the area (Ruthenians, Lithuanians, and sine East Slav Russians). This is the ultimate Military Trump Card. This is how the Ukrainians, and the many Polish fighting, finally and absolutely outmaneuver Russia.  

WTF?

Def belongs in either the Irony or Comedy Goldmine threads if they are still around these dayz.

[HillGoose]

thats just commie propaganda

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

thats just commie propaganda

Russia hasn't been communist for 31 years.