Canadian Election 2019

[Holmes]

With 40% nationally, Ontario would grant the Tories a majority.

[Holmes]

Oh, Pulatello's running in Windsor West? Hm.

[Holmes]

The Liberals have come back from far worse and ended up with majorities in the past. Hell, happened to the OLPC a few times recently, although their fate ended up being not so good.

Trudeau can probably thank Doug Ford for good numbers in Ontario though.

[Holmes]

I'm really proud of Jagmeet's response.  It definitely has the ability to turn around the campaign. It's unfortunate that this has to be reason for it.

Actually, I found the statement rather overwrought. Canada is, without question, the most tolerant, welcoming, and integrating place on earth. Canadians take a lot of pride in that fact, and a single truly stupid and insensitive photo cannot undo it. To pretend that a photo like this somehow makes Canada less tolerant is just absurd. And to pretend that Trudeau is like people who go around beating minorities up is even more absurd.

Just because Canada has a tolerant and welcoming image doesn't mean there aren't any bigots or assholes. I've seen it myself. Many times. This isn't just about Trudeau.

[Holmes]

The English debate will be at 7 pm on Monday, the exact same time that the Leafs will be playing. I am so annoyed. I will probably watch the Leafs game live, and watch the debate tomorrow on YouTube.

Imagine unironically wanting to watch a Leafs game.

[Holmes]

Trudeau will win, he is the most popular leader in the world right now.

Well, not in Canada where people are actually voting. Not to say he won't win the most seats.

[Holmes]

Im no Canadian election expert, but it’s probably a good thing for the Conservatives if they’re already leading in 8 ridings in a region where they won none in 2015.

Well it was raining in NB today.

[Holmes]

Will probably be a strong Liberal minority government. We'll see what kind of shenanigans happen if that's the case.

[Holmes]

I hope Trudeau tries to be less SJW over the next few years. I think that has what hurt him so much these past few years just focus on bread and butter issues.

No. What hurt him were his scandals, broken promises, rise of the BQ, and reversion to the mean in some areas after his 2015 landslide.

[Holmes]

I hope Trudeau tries to be less SJW over the next few years. I think that has what hurt him so much these past few years just focus on bread and butter issues.

No. What hurt him were his scandals, broken promises, rise of the BQ, and reversion to the mean in some areas after his 2015 landslide.

I have to feel like the 'peoplekind' stuff got really grating to a lot of voters along with the constant apologies. The scandals certainly mattered but I feel like most people are turned off by overly SJW pols.

There's really no evidence to what you're saying.

SNC-Lavalin and black face scandals saw his numbers drop.
Rise of the Bloc, we're seeing that happen right now in real time.
Reversion to the mean, we saw that in the Atlantic, Manitoba, Alberta and BC with Conservatives winning back seats the Liberals took from them in 2015.

The only subjective thing I said was the broken promises. But honestly Trudeau saying a stupid thing like peoplekind didn't sway any votes, I'm certain of that.

[Holmes]

The East-West split has been around for quite a few years and has taken different forms in terms of which party does well where. As a general rule, the same party doesn't do well in both urban Ontario and the Prairies (unless it's a big landslide).

And Manitoba takes a middling position between Ontario and Alberta/Saskatchewan.

Speaking of that, I wonder if it might be argued that a vestigial "Scheer effect" even leaked eastward into Northern Ontario--obviously with the Kenora pickup, but also in the Conservatives being second *everywhere else* except Sudbury and Nickel Belt--yes, even unexpectedly versus the NDP's Angus and Hughes...

It's not a "Scheet effect", no. Trudeau's not really too popular in Northern Ontario compared to 2015, and Singh's not as popular of a leader that past NDP leaders were because of reasons (guess which ones!). That being said, the Liberals still did pretty well in the region. And Kenora has a history of electing Conservatives too, both federally and provincially.

[Holmes]

Yes, the East-West divide is sharp in Canada in a way American observers may not be able to comprehend (we have no "Midwest" equivalent).  Also the Great Plains isn't a cultural region in the US but the Prairies very much is one in Canada.

I thought Manitoba and Northern Ontario were your Midwest.

Ew, I refuse to believe I’m from the Canadian equivalent of the Midwest.