Rural Midwestern Dems

[socaldem]

Democratic incumbents in Minnesota barely survived this year. I bet the Trump numbers in MN01 and MN07 were frightening.

If Ron Kind weren't unopposed, would he have been in danger in WI-03?

[Heisenberg]

I wish a Republican ran against Ron Kind just to see how that race would have turned out. Kind would have likely survived, as he is more entrenched than the three MN Dems, and has a friendlier district, but these trends were interesting and we'll see what happens in the long run. I think had the NRSC actually competed in MN-01 and MN-07, they would have picked up at least one.

[Miles]

Trump won MN-01 53/38, MN-08 54/38, and MN-07 61/31 (!).

[Heisenberg]

Trump won MN-01 53/38, MN-08 54/38, and MN-07 61/31 (!).

MN-07 was already R+6 IIRC, but more Dem downballot. The future of that district is interesting. I do think MN-07 will eventually be solid R at the Congressional level eventually if the trends continue.

[Devils30]

Had Clinton won, these districts were all solid R for the future. For 2020 it's possible the populist wing of the Democratic party makes a comeback and I imagine if Trump is bad these can swing pretty wildly.

[Mr.Phips]

I wish a Republican ran against Ron Kind just to see how that race would have turned out. Kind would have likely survived, as he is more entrenched than the three MN Dems, and has a friendlier district, but these trends were interesting and we'll see what happens in the long run. I think had the NRSC actually competed in MN-01 and MN-07, they would have picked up at least one.

Did Trump actually win WI-03?  I did some calculations in Iowa and it looks like Trump won all four districts.  

On the other hand, it looks like Clinton won by near double digits in MN-03. 

[publicunofficial]

The question of whether places like WI-03, IA-01, MN-01 are now firmly R-leaning is the biggest question going forward, and the one that puts the deepest pit in my stomach.

[PAK Man]

I don't think IA-01 is permanently Republican, especially since Obama won it so easily in 2012. I think it was just the wrong Democrat at the top of the ballot. Plus, Monica Vernon wasn't the most impressive Democrat on the ballot, either. Most of my friends in that district supported other candidates.

Iowans have always hated Hillary Clinton. Remember how shockingly poorly she did in the 2008 caucus. And nearly everybody I know that's in their 20s in Iowa was a hardcore Bernie Sanders supporter. Even my more Libertarian-leaning friends supported him. Some Bernie supporters eventually went over to Clinton, but a lot of them flocked to Gary Johnson.

Given the location of the 1st District (eastern Iowa is HIGHLY Democratic) I would only expect this to be temporary.

[Torie]

Trump won MN-01 53/38, MN-08 54/38, and MN-07 61/31 (!).

MN-07 was already R+6 IIRC, but more Dem downballot. The future of that district is interesting. I do think MN-07 will eventually be solid R at the Congressional level eventually if the trends continue.

Assuming MN loses a seat after the next census, MN-07 will disappear from the map.

[PAK Man]

Trump won MN-01 53/38, MN-08 54/38, and MN-07 61/31 (!).

MN-07 was already R+6 IIRC, but more Dem downballot. The future of that district is interesting. I do think MN-07 will eventually be solid R at the Congressional level eventually if the trends continue.

Assuming MN loses a seat after the next census, MN-07 will disappear from the map.

My theory has been that Collin Peterson will serve until then and retire, since he would have lost the seat anyway. I think someone on Roll Call was speculating that, too.