Why do people think WA/OR will trend Republican?

[AN63093]

This is something I've wondered myself.  I've often seen these states in the R column with future trend maps or realignment maps, and I'm not sure I buy that.

Even in the case of a realignment, I'm not sure I'm buying it, and that's even if the realignment is couched in generational theory as Timmy describes (which I do give him credit for the effort and time he's taken to write about this theory).  But even if we're presuming all this, I do think it's quite a bit too early to make any predictions in terms of what future coalitions will look like.  I do think that a future realignment is bound to happen at some point- after all, the current party system won't exist in perpetuity.  Notwithstanding that, I think what future coalitions emerge are much more in flux than people seem to think.

For example, yes- we could end up with something resembling an Eisenhower-era GOP with lots of Rockefeller Republicans (though even in this case, I'd expect WA/OR to be some of the last states to flip R, if they ever do.. they may just trend R and become swing states).  But what if we end up with both parties moving in a populist direction (somewhat of the inverse of the Gilded Age) and we have extreme party polarization based almost wholly on racial stratification, in a South African type system?

Now I suspect many would say that couldn't happen, mainly because you wouldn't want it to happen and a system like that probably sounds like quite an ugly one to many of you.  But whether we like it or not, I find it to be a distinct possibility.  I guess I am somewhat echoing Skill&Chance then, in that we could see national white block voting in the future, but where we differ, is I think that even if that happens, WA/OR may still vote D since it would have some of the least likely whites to vote R, even in an era of racial polarization.

One other point, I think NOVA Green mentioned this- in terms of the local weakness of the GOP.  This is something I've thought about as well; it seems local politicians have a much harder time making in roads in this region than a place, like say, New England.  In other words, Charlie Baker could win MA, but I'm not sure even he could win WA or OR.  Now obviously, there are many other variables at play here- Baker ran against a poor candidate and maybe all the pacific NW GOP candidates are joke candidates (I must admit some ignorance here, the pacific NW is one of my least knowledgeable areas), but it seems to me that some of these races should've been winnable (take, e.g., the 2010 OR gubernatorial).  For whatever reason, Baker could overcome the "taint" of the national party, so to speak, and WA/OR Republicans cannot.  That may be worth considering.

Finally, Skill&Chance- absolutely superb post at the top of this page, in re: culture wars, etc.  Very much agree and well done.