INDOHRPAD

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Describe a scenario and make a map where Indiana and Pennsylvania vote Democrat while Ohio votes Republican.

[PoliticalShelter]

Well in the 2008 election Obama mangaged to win Indiana and only won Ohio by 5 points, so maybe have the 2008 election be between Obama and Rob Portman or some relatively popular Ohioan republican.
Make sure that he is not too popular to seriously change the overall 2008 result, just enough to have a good home state performance, to keep Ohio republican.

[Blackacre]

Basically, the Midwest splits. Michigan flips back because it was super close, so does PA, but WI and OH stay Republican. Arizona and Georgia flipping as well as Florida, NC, and NE-02 indicates a significant win for the Democratic candidate, which means an unpopular President Trump in 2020. Indiana votes Dem because of its anti-incumbent streak, which Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin lack.

Alternatively:

Almost the same map, but the flip of Wisconsin and Iowa indicate that Ohio stands alone among the midwestern states. In this case, Ohio and Indiana converge, as they've been doing in Trump approval polls. Both states are decided by razor-thin margins, such that they're the two states that voted the closest in the entire nation and maybe even take a couple days to call. However, the difference in percentage just happens to be on opposite sides of the partisan dividing line.

[Vosem]

For the immediate future, a Democratic landslide featuring a Republican candidate from Ohio might do the trick. For the distant future, you'd have to see some city in Indiana see really explosive growth for some reason, so that state becomes more urban than Ohio, which is difficult to imagine.

[Nyvin]

The Demographics of Indiana and Ohio are almost the same,  Ohio just has more large metros than Indiana is what makes Ohio more competitive politically.

[RINO Tom]

The Demographics of Indiana and Ohio are almost the same,  Ohio just has more large metros than Indiana is what makes Ohio more competitive politically.

40% of Indiana's population lives in either Northwest Indiana (811,009) - which is pretty much just an extension of Chicagoland - or the greater Indianapolis area (1,843,620).  Once you add in the Cincinnati (77,978) and Louisville (284,247) suburbs, you're up to 45% of the population.  That isn't counting the following areas that are definitely not rural (population instate, only):

Fort Wayne (431,802)
Evansville (298,805)
South Bend (268,447)
Elkhart (203,781)
Terre Haute (170,687)
Bloomington (166,336)

Adding all of those in, and you get to 4,556,712, good for 69% of Indiana's population.  The reason it's so Republican is not because rural areas outvote urban ones; it's because the suburbs of those areas are very, very Republican.  TBH, the same is true of Ohio, too.  Ohio is not a rural/urban divide; the GOP does quite well in the suburbs there.

[TheLeftwardTide]

Under Trump, an economic recession to the severity of 2008 occurs once more in December 2019. Trump declines to run for reelection as his approval rating slip's into the low 20s. Kasich ends up winning the Republican nomination, while Sanders ends up winning the Democratic nomination. The following election is, due to the economy, a Democratic landslide, with Kasich just barely pulling it out in Ohio.

Not a likely scenario, but nor is the idea of Indiana going D and Ohio going R.

[Nyvin]

The Demographics of Indiana and Ohio are almost the same,  Ohio just has more large metros than Indiana is what makes Ohio more competitive politically.

40% of Indiana's population lives in either Northwest Indiana (811,009) - which is pretty much just an extension of Chicagoland - or the greater Indianapolis area (1,843,620).  Once you add in the Cincinnati (77,978) and Louisville (284,247) suburbs, you're up to 45% of the population.  That isn't counting the following areas that are definitely not rural (population instate, only):

Fort Wayne (431,802)
Evansville (298,805)
South Bend (268,447)
Elkhart (203,781)
Terre Haute (170,687)
Bloomington (166,336)

Adding all of those in, and you get to 4,556,712, good for 69% of Indiana's population.  The reason it's so Republican is not because rural areas outvote urban ones; it's because the suburbs of those areas are very, very Republican.  TBH, the same is true of Ohio, too.  Ohio is not a rural/urban divide; the GOP does quite well in the suburbs there.

I guess I should say "large" metro.   Places like Elkhart or Bloomington are really what I was thinking of.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What if Sanders would have been the Democratic nominee and Trump hadn't chosen someone from the Midwest. Could he have won Indiana and lose Ohio?
The first was surprisingly won by him in the primary, the latter was won in a landslide by Hillary.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

What if Sanders would have been the Democratic nominee and Trump hadn't chosen someone from the Midwest. Could he have won Indiana and lose Ohio?
The first was surprisingly won by him in the primary, the latter was won in a landslide by Hillary.

He wouldn't have won either, and I wouldn't think Ohio would be closer.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What if Sanders would have been the Democratic nominee and Trump hadn't chosen someone from the Midwest. Could he have won Indiana and lose Ohio?
The first was surprisingly won by him in the primary, the latter was won in a landslide by Hillary.

He wouldn't have won either, and I wouldn't think Ohio would be closer.

Why did Hillary overperform so much in the Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries? That doesn't make much sense in retrospect.

[Kingpoleon]

2009-2017: Hillary Clinton/Evan Bayh

292: Vice President Evan Bayh/Senator Joe Sestak - 47.2%
246: Governor Nikki Haley/Senator Rob Portman - 46.2%

OR, in the future of 2032:

269(273): President Elise Stefanik/Vice President Sarah LaTourette - 49.4%
269(265): Governor Pete Buttigieg/Senator Robert Kennedy Jr. - 48.5%

[TheLeftwardTide]

Kingpoleon, why do you think that Robert Kennedy Jr can win statewide in Alabama in the 2020s?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Kingpoleon, why do you think that Robert Kennedy Jr can win statewide in Alabama in the 2020s?

I've noticed that his maps almost always have the Democrat over-performing in the South for some reason.