Oh my goodness..GOP lead pretty big in Maryland.

[AuH2O]

The GOP is playing for keeps in Maryland.

Whatever that means?

The GOP is going to put a lot of resources into Maryland. The GOP has an incumbent governor and its strongest possible Senatorial candidate. In other words, they're giving it their best shot.

Whether that will be good enough is obviously unclear, as of now I think Ehrlich will win narrowly and Cardin will as well. I also think Steele might be a better candidate than he appears on paper, because he is very articulate and has more charisma than the technocratic Cardin. Mfume is a non-issue because, as I've said all along, he can't win the Dem nomination.

If he did, the Democrats would lose both races without a doubt. But there's no chance he gets it.

[Joe Republic]

Whenever a poll comes out that shows the Democrats surging ahead, the partisan Democrats on this board say that it's clear evidence of a breakthrough, and the race is in the bag.  But if a poll comes out that shows a significant Republican jump, then it's just one poll, and probably based on faulty methodology.

The partisan Republicans are just as guilty, I guess.

[Sam Spade]

1 in 20, even in a perfect world, folks.

^^^^^^^^^^  And sometimes more than that, depending on the quality of the pollster.

I can't really say too much regarding any changes in the Senate race that could lead to the result above.

However, I keep reading about on different websites (and maybe Nick can verify this), that there was a Gonzales Research poll out this week that showed that Ehrlich's approval rating had risen to 53%.  No horserace numbers quote, however. 

That's about the only secondary evidence I can find that might back anything up, since pretty much no one but Rasmussen (and Gonzales Research much earlier) has polled this race in quite a while.

[TheresNoMoney]

Whenever a poll comes out that shows the Democrats surging ahead, the partisan Democrats on this board say that it's clear evidence of a breakthrough, and the race is in the bag.  But if a poll comes out that shows a significant Republican jump, then it's just one poll, and probably based on faulty methodology.

The key fact being that this poll is way different than all the other polls in this race, especially given that no campaigning has been going on. In the Senate race, it's a 13% swing in less than two months during a very quiet time of year.

Maybe these results are legitimate. We will see.

[Moooooo]

However, I keep reading about on different websites (and maybe Nick can verify this), that there was a Gonzales Research poll out this week that showed that Ehrlich's approval rating had risen to 53%.  No horserace numbers quote, however. 

True.  I posted the poll on my blog 2 days ago.  Ehrlich's approval jumped to 53% and his disapproval dropped to 36%. 

Just as a side note:  The Steele camp sent out an email a week or so ago that stated his internal polling has him tied with Cardin.  I find it kind of hard to believe that Steele's internals have him tied with Cardin, yet Rasmussen has Steele +5%.  With that said, I really, really want to get my hands on the crosstabs from this poll.  My gut says they underpolled Democrats.  Remember we have a 2 to 1 party registration advantage here in MD.

[Sam Spade]

However, I keep reading about on different websites (and maybe Nick can verify this), that there was a Gonzales Research poll out this week that showed that Ehrlich's approval rating had risen to 53%.  No horserace numbers quote, however. 

True.  I posted the poll on my blog 2 days ago.  Ehrlich's approval jumped to 53% and his disapproval dropped to 36%. 

Just as a side note:  The Steele camp sent out an email a week or so ago that stated his internal polling has him tied with Cardin.  I find it kind of hard to believe that Steele's internals have him tied with Cardin, yet Rasmussen has Steele +5%.  With that said, I really, really want to get my hands on the crosstabs from this poll.  My gut says they underpolled Democrats.  Remember we have a 2 to 1 party registration advantage here in MD.

I tend to agree.  And thanks for the poll reference.  I should read your site more often. 

However, I'm pretty sure that we both realize that if Ehrlich's JA numbers have improved to 53% (SUSA had him at 49% in December), his poll numbers probably have as well.  The question is, by how much.

Senate race, I can't say much.  At least not without more polling.  Steele's comment is interesting, no idea what it means it the larger scheme, except that he thinks he's probably behind by a slight amount.

[Moooooo]

However, I'm pretty sure that we both realize that if Ehrlich's JA numbers have improved to 53% (SUSA had him at 49% in December), his poll numbers probably have as well.  The question is, by how much.

I agree.  He's actually been getting a ton of positive press lately.  Like I pointed out earlier in the thread.  He recently pledged a ton of money to the public universities... Pledged millions to stem cell research... and proposed a 15% reduction in state property taxes.  Im actually beginnining to doubt our chances against him.  The state is in good shape, very low unemployment rate, solid job creation, budget surplus.  He's really not doing THAT bad of a job. 

Steele's numbers on the other hand are shocking.  A 14% swing in a matter of months?  Eh, Maybe he's riding Ehrlich's coattails?

[AuH2O]

Synergy  baby.

[Gustaf]

Joe pretty much nailed it. While I said all along that I think Erlich is gonna survive, I don't expect the senate seat to go GOP. In Maryland, of all places, a senate election should be easy for the Democrats to win.

[Alcon]

I was hoping Rasmussen's gubernatoral flash polling would be as good as its 2004 presidential polling.  Evidently, no such luck.

I could buy Missouri.  Montana made me suspicious.  This confirms my worst fears.

It could be right, but it sure don't look it.

[ATFFL]

Flash polling has inherent flaws.  It is really not good.  Still, he is giving a constant stream of data.  I just wish it was higher quality data.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Can you hear the Imperial March Democrats?


Dun dun dun duh dun duh dun duh duh


Seems the democrats have thrown every attack and pulled every trick in thier dusty old playbook and still are trailing badly, what shall you do now?

Join us, and together we shall rule the Galaxy as Father and Son....

[Alcon]

Can you hear the Imperial March Democrats?


Dun dun dun duh dun duh dun duh duh


Seems the democrats have thrown every attack and pulled every trick in thier dusty old playbook and still are trailing badly, what shall you do now?

Join us, and together we shall rule the Galaxy as Father and Son....

Are we now ignoring the flaws of flash polling for partisan reasons?

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Can you hear the Imperial March Democrats?


Dun dun dun duh dun duh dun duh duh


Seems the democrats have thrown every attack and pulled every trick in thier dusty old playbook and still are trailing badly, what shall you do now?

Join us, and together we shall rule the Galaxy as Father and Son....

Are we now ignoring the flaws of flash polling for partisan reasons?

No for reasons of fun

[Alcon]

Can you hear the Imperial March Democrats?


Dun dun dun duh dun duh dun duh duh


Seems the democrats have thrown every attack and pulled every trick in thier dusty old playbook and still are trailing badly, what shall you do now?

Join us, and together we shall rule the Galaxy as Father and Son....

Are we now ignoring the flaws of flash polling for partisan reasons?

No for reasons of fun

Ah, OK.  It's all good.

Just wait until election day, when the Democrats will be up 643% in Montana at this rate!

[© tweed]

This blows.  Or it's dead wrong.  Or both.

Steele 45% Cardin 40%

[Virginian87]

Dead wrong.  Steele is consistently hyped up by the Republican Party as their Barack Obama.  He's not gonna cut it in the election.  Cardin will win handily.

[YRABNNRM]

Steele is consistently hyped up by the Republican Party as their Barack Obama.

That only similarity I see is....they're both black...

[Moooooo]

Steele is consistently hyped up by the Republican Party as their Barack Obama.

That only similarity I see is....they're both black...

Charismatic, articulate, former lawyers...

[Galactic Overlord]

It's hardly farfetched that Steele could win.  He was elected on a statewide ticket and is looked upon rather favorably by many MD voters.  If Dorgan and Conrad manage to keep winning in the deep red state of North Dakota, it's not out of the question that someday the reverse can happen.

[Moooooo]

It's hardly farfetched that Steele could win.  He was elected on a statewide ticket and is looked upon rather favorably by many MD voters.  If Dorgan and Conrad manage to keep winning in the deep red state of North Dakota, it's not out of the question that someday the reverse can happen.

Then I guess you would agree its hardly farfetched that Ford could win in TN?

[Moooooo]

Here's a bizarre scenario...

Lets just assume for a second that Steele and Ehrlich win in 2006.  In 2010 Mikulski is likely to retire, which means Ehrlich would be the heavy favorite to replace Mikulski in 2010.

Maryland would go from a state that has not elected a Republican Senator since 1986 to possibly having two Republican Senators in 2010.  Make that two Conservative Republican Senators.  Senator Mathias was an extremely liberal Republican, so he really doesnt count.  The last time Maryland elected a true conservative was Senator John Marshall Butler, who served from 1951-1963.

[AuH2O]

Stranger things have happened.

Also, Ford is not in Steele's league.

[Moooooo]

Also, Ford is not in Steele's league.

Sure he is.

Both are charismatic, good looking, black guys w/ strong establishment support.  Both are rising stars in their respective parties.  Both are running for Senate in states that have a problem with the letter that follows their name (R & D).  The only real difference between the two is, Ford is a moderate to conservative Democrat running in a conservative state.  Where Steele is a conservative Republican running in a liberal state.  Obviously Ford has the ideological advantage..  The only real advantage Steele has over Ford is, an extremely short resume, which means he can make up his platform as he goes.

One more thing, if we're taking this poll seriously we must also take the Rasmussen TN poll seriously in which Ford was leading all, but one potential challenger.

[AuH2O]

Totally incorrect. Ford already has the black vote but that isn't enough in TN, actually the fact he's black probably hurts him, plus his dad is a criminal.

Steele only has to make modest gains among black voters, combined with a solid backing from the existing GOP base, to win. He is older than Ford and thus comes across as a more appropriate candidate for the Senate. Steele has won at the statewide level, unlike Ford.

There is practically no chance Ford wins. Steele probably has a 20% chance at worst, maybe as high as 40% depending on various underlying factors that cannot be accurately accounted for at this time. There is no comparison.

note: clearly, identity politics matter. In this case, they obviously favor Steele, because his racial status opens the door to a massive voting bloc, some of which he probably will tap, whereas Ford already has maxed out his support (basically Democrats like him).