Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-14/eu-drafts-plan-for-buying-russian-gas-without-breaking-sanctions

"EU Drafts Plan for Buying Russian Gas Without Breaking Sanctions"

The latest in the EU pay for gas in RUB saga. 

The  sequence of events are:

Putin: EU has to pay for Russian gas in RUB

EU: No

Putin: OK, how about EU companies open two accounts in Gazprombank, one in EUR and one in RUB.  EU companies can deposit EU in the EUR account, Gazprombank then converts it to RUB and redeposits into the RUB one where Gazprom will then take payment.

EU: No

Then some EU companies do this while Putin shuts down gas flows for some countries that refuse to go open two accounts.

EU: OK, how about this.  We will give instruction to EU companies that consider payment into the EUR account at Gazprombank to mean the transition is final and we will not object to EU companies opening a "totally separate" and "totally unrelated" RUB account if they so wish.  What Gazprombank do after payment is paid in EUR in the EUR account is their business and has nothing to do with us.

So with a bunch of clever lawyer-like technically games it seems we have a deal.  I guess anything to keep the gas and the money flowing.

I mean, the EU should just stop virtue signalling.

One would have to be mentally handicapped to sanction Russian gas while we are entering stagflation.

Send the Ukrainians all the shiny military equipment they ask for, sanction all other Russian sectors that wont ruin our own economy and thats it, fairly simple. 

Your comment reminded me of this Politico EU article I read yesterday, which is about how some in the EU are seeing Orban's delay of agreeing on an embargo useful in delaying or possibly even reducing the effects (ergo price hikes) of taking such an action.

"“Orbán is making a favor to many,” a second EU diplomat said. “Germans, Italians and others, they all said they will do the gas ban, but it seems clear to me that … buying more time for it can be appreciated in many capitals.”"

https://www.politico.eu/article/viktor-orban-hungary-obstruction-some-eu-capitals-see-useful-delay-of-oil-embargo/

[Storr]

Not directly war related but, the win means it will be held in Ukraine next year:

https://twitter.com/Eurovision/status/1525615613950959616?s=20&t=NP8jpRX5Zun...

[AndyHogan14]

Not directly war related but, the win means it will be held in Ukraine next year:

https://twitter.com/Eurovision/status/1525615613950959616?s=20&t=NP8jpRX5Zun...

Zelenskyy said that he wants to host it in Mariupol and many people have been joking about it being in Sevastopol or Yalta. I just hope that they can host it in Ukraine at all. I’m thinking Kyiv is definitely possible, but depending on the situation, Lviv is likely possible in any scenario.

[BG-NY]

https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/1525471028000038913

[lfromnj]

Any recent casualty estimate?

[Mopsus]

https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/1525471028000038913

I don’t understand how there could be a baby formula crisis as long as humans continue to be mammals.

[NOVA Green]

Any recent casualty estimate?

Depends upon whose numbers you are asking for (Russia, Ukraine, US, UK...)

But Also:

1.) Are you talking about verified losses of military hardware and assets?

2.) Are you talking about estimated total military KIA?

3.) Are you asking about total estimated military wounded, MIA, or captured?

4.) Are you asking about total estimated numbers of Civilians dead or injured (Overwhelmingly Ukrainian)?

If #1: Oryx is the best on the block...  (Link to live updates).

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Wanna go Twitter?

Follow this guy...


https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1525594849268928518?s=20&t=xzQsWWDY...

#2: Numbers vary. Ukrainians are cagey on their own military casualties as are the Russians.

Still 15k Russian KIA would likely be a much more conservative estimate than even US and UK Intel suggests, let alone Ukrainian numbers which show something like 22k + KIA last time I checked...

#3: Would not be surprised if the Ukrainian numbers might even be closer than the last US/UK KIA numbers, since the traditional ratios of 1:3 KIA vs WIA/MIA/POW numbers might well not apply considering the "death coffins" which Russian tanks have become.

#4: The extent of the civilian deaths and atrocities is still well unknown considering the mass bombardments and destructions of entire communities, including a pretty decent size city Mariupol decimated by Russian bombardments....

Regardless pretty obvious the numbers run at minimum likely 20k civilians dead and likely we will never know the full figure an the extent of the Russian "Filtration Camps" and those who simply disappeared under the hands of Russian Occupation regime.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile Russian Oligarchs might just be facing some increased difficulties in their Bavarian Mansion retreats...

ROTTACH-EGERN, Germany — Nestled among snow-capped mountains an hour’s drive south of Munich, the villages around the Alpine lake of Tegernsee have been a playground of the superrich for centuries — whether Bavarian kings, Russian czars, Nazi elites or pop stars. They have been drawn not just by the pristine views, but also by the cozy air of discretion that in more recent years has made the area a favorite destination for Russian oligarchs, too.

But Russia’s war in Ukraine, along with the sanctions targeting Russian elites in response, has upset the calm veneer with nagging questions about whether it is right to look the other way from the sources of wealth of those the area has hosted.

At least, that is the intention of Thomas Tomaschek, a Green politician on the council for Rottach-Egern, a village on the Tegernsee where some prominent Russian oligarchs maintain lakeside hideaways. Mr. Tomaschek has pushed the federal government to seize or freeze assets — no easy task given the financial shields that are as much a part of the superrich lifestyle as the neon-colored Lamborghinis that speed along the mountain roads.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/14/world/russia-ukraine-war-news/at-a-german-hideaway-russian-oligarch-villas-challenge-a-silent-contract?smid=url-copy

[dead0man]

An entire Russian Battalion refusing orders to attempt another crossing?!

I still keep expecting a group of Russian soldiers to rise up, convince a Captain or Major to take over and yada yada yada, there are 40k Russian troops pushing towards Moscow.  It's really the best way for this to end.  Russians are much more likely to accept their inevitable defeat at the hands of Russians over non-Russians.

[Logical]

We're not mad! We're not owned!
https://twitter.com/xenasolo/status/1525733919274020864

[Logical]

Any recent casualty estimate?

Personal KIA estimates, based on Western intel reports and losses admitted by both combatants.

Russian Armed Forces: 15-20k
LDPR separatists: 3-5k
Wagner Group: 1-3k
Chechens: 500-1k

Total for the Russian side: 19.5-29k
Ukrainians have also taken at least 1k Russian pows that they were willing to exchange with the last defenders of Azovstal.

Ukrainian losses are harder to estimate since they manage to keep a tight lid on it. My best guess is fewer than the Russians but still significant.

Ukrainian Armed Forces: 10-20k + many more captured on the first days of the war and in Mariupol

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/1525471028000038913

I don’t understand how there could be a baby formula crisis as long as humans continue to be mammals.

So, you mean it's a first world problem?

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/1525471028000038913

I mean, if you are looking for a textbook definition of "non sequitur".......

[Torie]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-14/eu-drafts-plan-for-buying-russian-gas-without-breaking-sanctions

"EU Drafts Plan for Buying Russian Gas Without Breaking Sanctions"

The latest in the EU pay for gas in RUB saga. 

The  sequence of events are:

Putin: EU has to pay for Russian gas in RUB

EU: No

Putin: OK, how about EU companies open two accounts in Gazprombank, one in EUR and one in RUB.  EU companies can deposit EU in the EUR account, Gazprombank then converts it to RUB and redeposits into the RUB one where Gazprom will then take payment.

EU: No

Then some EU companies do this while Putin shuts down gas flows for some countries that refuse to go open two accounts.

EU: OK, how about this.  We will give instruction to EU companies that consider payment into the EUR account at Gazprombank to mean the transition is final and we will not object to EU companies opening a "totally separate" and "totally unrelated" RUB account if they so wish.  What Gazprombank do after payment is paid in EUR in the EUR account is their business and has nothing to do with us.

So with a bunch of clever lawyer-like technically games it seems we have a deal.  I guess anything to keep the gas and the money flowing.

It is quite the farce. All the world is a stage.

One silver lining of all of this, is that I think those not particularly motivated by the specter of climate change, may well be motivated by the stark reminder that petro states are dangerous, with their ability to blackmail others, and need to be rendered into the ash heap of history via the acceleration of a costly but necessary divorce the economy from its dependence on fossil fuels. It will reduce the standard of living, but will make the planet a safer place I think. Becoming so dependent on energy from problematic states was akin to almost criminal negligence.

Another thought in reading some of the posts above is that Russia just isn't very good at high tech, and tech rather than brawn is what "wins" wars.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-14/eu-drafts-plan-for-buying-russian-gas-without-breaking-sanctions

"EU Drafts Plan for Buying Russian Gas Without Breaking Sanctions"

The latest in the EU pay for gas in RUB saga. 

The  sequence of events are:

Putin: EU has to pay for Russian gas in RUB

EU: No

Putin: OK, how about EU companies open two accounts in Gazprombank, one in EUR and one in RUB.  EU companies can deposit EU in the EUR account, Gazprombank then converts it to RUB and redeposits into the RUB one where Gazprom will then take payment.

EU: No

Then some EU companies do this while Putin shuts down gas flows for some countries that refuse to go open two accounts.

EU: OK, how about this.  We will give instruction to EU companies that consider payment into the EUR account at Gazprombank to mean the transition is final and we will not object to EU companies opening a "totally separate" and "totally unrelated" RUB account if they so wish.  What Gazprombank do after payment is paid in EUR in the EUR account is their business and has nothing to do with us.

So with a bunch of clever lawyer-like technically games it seems we have a deal.  I guess anything to keep the gas and the money flowing.

It is quite the farce. All the world is a stage.

One silver lining of all of this, is that I think those not particularly motivated by the specter of climate change, may well be motivated by the stark reminder that petro states are dangerous, with their ability to blackmail others, and need to be rendered into the ash heap of history via the acceleration of a costly but necessary divorce the economy from its dependence on fossil fuels. It will reduce the standard of living, but will make the planet a safer place I think. Becoming so dependent on energy from problematic states was akin to almost criminal negligence.

Another thought in reading some of the posts above is that Russia just isn't very good at high tech, and tech rather than brawn is what "wins" wars.

One thing the EU should consider is doing jujitsu on Putin on the issue of energy trade.  What the EU and many mercantilists of all colors seem to forget is that the point of exports is to be able to import. What the EU should focus on is blocking exports to Russia versus trying to stop Russian imports.  If Putin wants to export energy to the EU for pieces of RUB paper, let him.  Russia will not be able to do much with pieces of paper, be it RUB or EUR.  In fact, instead of trying to sanction Russia's energy trade, I think the EU should import Russian energy in excess especially when it is priced in USD, and with a strong RUB, Russia will get less RUB per unit of energy export.  EU's position to Putin should be "So, you like a strong RUB eh, we will buy massive amounts of Russian energy and drive up RUB even more and we pay less in EUR terms while you are left holding a bunch of paper RUB that you cannot buy anything with.  Have all the strong RUB you can handle"  Doing so will drive up Russian inflation since more Russian resources will be used up for extra energy to export and since imports from EU is limited the Russian economy will be left with a bunch of paper RUB instead which merely drives up inflation while Russian supply is used up for energy extraction.

[Torie]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-14/eu-drafts-plan-for-buying-russian-gas-without-breaking-sanctions

"EU Drafts Plan for Buying Russian Gas Without Breaking Sanctions"

The latest in the EU pay for gas in RUB saga. 

The  sequence of events are:

Putin: EU has to pay for Russian gas in RUB

EU: No

Putin: OK, how about EU companies open two accounts in Gazprombank, one in EUR and one in RUB.  EU companies can deposit EU in the EUR account, Gazprombank then converts it to RUB and redeposits into the RUB one where Gazprom will then take payment.

EU: No

Then some EU companies do this while Putin shuts down gas flows for some countries that refuse to go open two accounts.

EU: OK, how about this.  We will give instruction to EU companies that consider payment into the EUR account at Gazprombank to mean the transition is final and we will not object to EU companies opening a "totally separate" and "totally unrelated" RUB account if they so wish.  What Gazprombank do after payment is paid in EUR in the EUR account is their business and has nothing to do with us.

So with a bunch of clever lawyer-like technically games it seems we have a deal.  I guess anything to keep the gas and the money flowing.

It is quite the farce. All the world is a stage.

One silver lining of all of this, is that I think those not particularly motivated by the specter of climate change, may well be motivated by the stark reminder that petro states are dangerous, with their ability to blackmail others, and need to be rendered into the ash heap of history via the acceleration of a costly but necessary divorce the economy from its dependence on fossil fuels. It will reduce the standard of living, but will make the planet a safer place I think. Becoming so dependent on energy from problematic states was akin to almost criminal negligence.

Another thought in reading some of the posts above is that Russia just isn't very good at high tech, and tech rather than brawn is what "wins" wars.

One thing the EU should consider is doing jujitsu on Putin on the issue of energy trade.  What the EU and many mercantilists of all colors seem to forget is that the point of exports is to be able to import. What the EU should focus on is blocking exports to Russia versus trying to stop Russian imports.  If Putin wants to export energy to the EU for pieces of RUB paper, let him.  Russia will not be able to do much with pieces of paper, be it RUB or EUR.  In fact, instead of trying to sanction Russia's energy trade, I think the EU should import Russian energy in excess especially when it is priced in USD, and with a strong RUB, Russia will get less RUB per unit of energy export.  EU's position to Putin should be "So, you like a strong RUB eh, we will buy massive amounts of Russian energy and drive up RUB even more and we pay less in EUR terms while you are left holding a bunch of paper RUB that you cannot buy anything with.  Have all the strong RUB you can handle"  Doing so will drive up Russian inflation since more Russian resources will be used up for extra energy to export and since imports from EU is limited the Russian economy will be left with a bunch of paper RUB instead which merely drives up inflation while Russian supply is used up for energy extraction.

Yes, but depending on what is being imported, it is so easy to cheat via "transhipment."

The idea is to impoverish Russia relatively speaking so that it has less capacity to finance war.

An issue I would appreciate your thoughts on, is the correlation between a free and open society (that hews to the rule of law more or less) and the ability to be cutting edge in technology. China seems able to progress without doing very well on those metrics, unlike Russia. Will that eventually bite China in the butt down the road, or is the respect for authority and obedience in Chinese culture its antidote or offsetting factor to that?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Some highlights from a great 🧵 on where things are at in Donbas:
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1525748588445302784
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1525748590718623746
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1525748596586463233
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1525748606891859969
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1525748613141385216
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1525748618422001665
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1525748621098029056

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The ISW assesses that Russia will pursue one of three strategies:
1. Denial will continue and so will the Donbas offensive, followed by collapse
2. Mobilisation
3. Acceptance (at some point, after offensives stall) that territorial gains are maximal, followed by direct annexation of occupied regions, a (temporary?) halt to offensive operations, and a claim that a Ukrainian counteroffensive on them would fall under Russian nuclear doctrine

IMO, 3. would probably require a ceasefire first, and seems like a really poor idea. It works for South Ossetia, but when it comes to tens of thousands of troops in an active warzone, I would expect some of them to be willing to call any bluff.

1. could well lead to a coup.

Despite the political risk, I’d say 2. is the safest for Russia (of these options). Full mobilisation would at least allow inexperienced conscripts fresh of school to be replaced by reservists or ex-military who’d served for a minimum of one year, and their manpower problems are more acute than their equipment problems.

I think 1 is actually safer for Putin than 2. The backlash from failure is survivable for him, the Russian military proper has little to no pull politically and he has the security services locked down. There just isn’t anyone that can pull of a palace coup.
Full mobilization, however, would be very destabilizing. Contract soldiers are overwhelmingly from marginalized communities and disproportionately coming from remote minority dominated regions in the caucuses and Asiatic Russia and frankly your average man on the street in Petrograd doesn’t give a damn. When it’s masses of white kids from European Russia getting fed into that meat grinder I think he risks significant civil unrest.

I don’t know the extent to which this is false, but it is definitely false to some extent as no-one is ever truly safe from a palace coup. The distance between Putin and his ministers at meetings suggest he is taking some threat to his own life seriously, and that the likes of Strelkov are allowed to bad-mouth him and the war could mean he feels squashing them might generate the kind of backlash that might destabilise his reign.

Mobilisation is first applied to reserves who’ve done at least 1 year’s service - such people are also less likely to be upper-middle class Muscovites to begin with. As we’ve seen with the mobilisation in Crimea, it could also be rolled out region-by-region if Russia wished.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1525843071610638342

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1525787535061966848?t=i4iOOaUAtjSL_qHV5YC3...

Shouldn't be hard to find donations for trucks if its true. Non-Lethal should recieve little pushback.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

The ISW assesses that Russia will pursue one of three strategies:
1. Denial will continue and so will the Donbas offensive, followed by collapse
2. Mobilisation
3. Acceptance (at some point, after offensives stall) that territorial gains are maximal, followed by direct annexation of occupied regions, a (temporary?) halt to offensive operations, and a claim that a Ukrainian counteroffensive on them would fall under Russian nuclear doctrine

IMO, 3. would probably require a ceasefire first, and seems like a really poor idea. It works for South Ossetia, but when it comes to tens of thousands of troops in an active warzone, I would expect some of them to be willing to call any bluff.

1. could well lead to a coup.

Despite the political risk, I’d say 2. is the safest for Russia (of these options). Full mobilisation would at least allow inexperienced conscripts fresh of school to be replaced by reservists or ex-military who’d served for a minimum of one year, and their manpower problems are more acute than their equipment problems.

I think 1 is actually safer for Putin than 2. The backlash from failure is survivable for him, the Russian military proper has little to no pull politically and he has the security services locked down. There just isn’t anyone that can pull of a palace coup.
Full mobilization, however, would be very destabilizing. Contract soldiers are overwhelmingly from marginalized communities and disproportionately coming from remote minority dominated regions in the caucuses and Asiatic Russia and frankly your average man on the street in Petrograd doesn’t give a damn. When it’s masses of white kids from European Russia getting fed into that meat grinder I think he risks significant civil unrest.

I don’t know the extent to which this is false, but it is definitely false to some extent as no-one is ever truly safe from a palace coup. The distance between Putin and his ministers at meetings suggest he is taking some threat to his own life seriously, and that the likes of Strelkov are allowed to bad-mouth him and the war could mean he feels squashing them might generate the kind of backlash that might destabilise his reign.

Mobilisation is first applied to reserves who’ve done at least 1 year’s service - such people are also less likely to be upper-middle class Muscovites to begin with. As we’ve seen with the mobilisation in Crimea, it could also be rolled out region-by-region if Russia wished.

The general point is that I thought civil unrest was a greater threat to the regime than an internal coup

But holy sh**t do I stand corrected (maybe):

https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-coup-underway-impossible-to-stop-ukraine-military-intel-2022-5

Probably hope more than fact but fingers crossed

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1525833810033754112?s=20&t=gYqxYsEPkIt...

[Storr]

from April 16th: https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1515476196557037568?s=20&t=-IJLl8HldZb...

Today: https://twitter.com/BorisJQuotes/status/1525878611303079937?s=20&t=6EAs23Hid...

[BG-NY]

Is it an acceptable viewpoint to you all to think that what Russia is doing is wrong and that Ukraine's allies have the right to support their efforts, but to oppose US membership in NATO?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is it an acceptable viewpoint to you all to think that what Russia is doing is wrong and that Ukraine's allies have the right to support their efforts, but to oppose US membership in NATO?

Well, it's a viewpoint that's acceptable but dumb.