Add GA to that mix as well. The four states have rapidly growing populations--and everyone talks about the ethnic populations moving in. But they are effectively matched in a less public way by a significant conservative white influx. And just about the first thing they will do when they arrive in their new home is register to vote.
The Democrats will be competitive in Georgia and may start to win some races statewide in the future. But it will follow the pattern of Florida. The movement into the Villages and the Panhandle and Southwest FL matches the ethnic influx into the Orlando and Miami/Ft. Lauderdale areas. Likewise, the moves into metro Atlanta are matched by the conservative white inflow into north Georgia counties (either from out of state or "white flight" out of Atlanta). And again, voter registration within the diverse population lags the white influx for several election cycles.
It will be tight for next year, but Trump will pull it out in Georgia.
