Vosem
Atlas Icon
Posts: 15,641
Political Matrix E: 8.13, S: -6.09
|
|
« on: August 23, 2016, 04:14:43 PM » |
|
Among the politicians, Christie and Pence are likelier than not to run, LePage is a possibility, and the rest are vanishingly unlikely. Gingrich and Giuliani are both has-beens, and Stewart is from the wrong state. Don't think Brown would run if he didn't in 2016; perhaps some day in the future he'll try for NH office again (2022 Senate race?). The non-politicians are difficult to predict, though I suspect Flynn, Icahn, and Carson are the likeliest, in that order. Thiel would be a strong possibility if not for the fact that he is, as others have noted, not a natural-born citizen.
On the Cruz speculation, Cruz rose from barely over footnote status (entering at 4-5%) to the mid-20s nationally mostly by doing well in debates; his organization was always limited to a select few states (most obviously Iowa). So long as multiple, repeated pre-primary debates remain a part of the landscape for the 2020 race and Cruz throws plenty of red meat has a coherent answer to the "you helped elect Hillary" attack, he will be a candidate to be reckoned with in 2020.
|