Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017

[Harry Hayfield]

Although there is no requirement for the new Prime Minister to hold a general election, given how the Conservatives badgered Gordon Brown to hold an election (and then he bottled it at the last minute) I would be very surprised if the new Prime Minister did not call a general election shortly after his election in October. However, of course, that would mean having to square the circle of the Fixed Term Parliament Act (which requires 426 MP's to vote for an election). I suppose one possible option would to be offer the government's resignation and then challenge Labour and the SNP to form a majority (which is impossible) and then hold an election.

[Harry Hayfield]

Heidi Alexander MP (Lab, Lewisham East) has tendered her resignation and there are expectations that a minimum of 10 Shadow Cabinet members intend to resign by the end of the day (and as many as 14)

[Harry Hayfield]

Current resignations:

Conservative Resignations
David Cameron MP (Witney) Prime Minister

Labour Resignations
Hillary Benn MP (Leeds Central) Technically sacked Shadow Foreign Secretary
Heidi Alexander MP (Lewisham East) Shadow Health Secretary
Gloria de Piero MP (Ashfield) Shadow Minister with responsibility for young people
Ian Murray MP (Edinburgh South) Shadow Scottish Secretary
Lucy Powell MP (Manchester Central) Shadow Education Secretary
Kerry McCarthy MP (Bristol East) Shadow Environment Secretary
Seema Malhora MP (Feltham and Heston) Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury
Lilian Greenwood MP (Nottingham South) Shadow Transport Secretary
Vernon Coaker MP (Gedling) Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland
Lord Falconer Shadow Justice Secretary
Chris Bryant MP (Rhondda) Shadow Leader of the House
Tony Perkins MP (Chesterfield) Shadow Armed Forces Minister
Anna Turley MP (Redcar) Shadow Minister for the Civil Society
Chris Matheson MP (City of Chester) PPS to the Shadow Justice Team
Diana Johnson MP (Kingston upon Hull North) Shadow Foreign Office Minister
Stephen Kinnock MP (Aberavon) PPS to Shadow Business Team

New Shadow Cabinet
Shadow foreign secretary - Emily Thornberry (Islington South)
Shadow health secretary - Diane Abbott (Hackney North)
Shadow education secretary - Pat Glass (Durham North West)
Shadow transport secretary - Andy McDonald (Middlesbrough)
Shadow defence secretary – Clive Lewis (Norwich South)
Shadow chief secretary to the Treasury – Rebecca Long-Bailey (Salford and Eccles)
Shadow international development secretary – Kate Osamor (Edmonton)
Shadow environment, food and rural affairs secretary – Rachel Maskell (York Central)
Shadow voter engagement and youth affairs – Cat Smith (Lancaster and Fleetwood)
Shadow Northern Ireland secretary – Dave Anderson (Blaydon)

[Harry Hayfield]

To give you an idea of the number of resignations from the Labour Shadow Cabinet since early on Sunday morning, here's the BBC's page on the matter

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36633158

53 presses of the Page Down button (when most articles only require three)

[Harry Hayfield]

Jeremy Hunt MP (Con, Surrey South West) has confirmed that he will be seeking nomination to enter the Conservative leadership election and has made a couple of interesting statements. Those statements include holding a second referendum and a general election.

[Harry Hayfield]

A poll that came out today suggested that 52% of the population would like to see an immediate general election, which according to 68% would "help clear the air". However, none of the Conservatives standing for the leadership are either in favour of the idea or have not commented on it.

[Harry Hayfield]

As stated earlier neither May nor Leadsome have said that there will be a general election before May 2020 if they are elected, but a large number of voices (outside the usual circles) are calling for one including the London School of Economics http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/07/07/general-election-article-50/

[Harry Hayfield]

In a discussion on Twitter last night, several people who follow the polls suggested that a Conservative majority of 100 was easily on the cards (increasing to at least 150 if Labour split) which thanks to the proposed boundary changes that are seen as being very friendly to the Conservatives the prospect for a 2021 general election being a starting point of a Conservative majority of between 125 and 150

[Harry Hayfield]

Crossposted from Scruffy Atlas:

So let's say that May goes back on her word and wants an early election asap. Two dates to note: she kisses hands on the 13th and Parliament breaks up for the Summer on the 21st. Given the stupid FTPA (see provisions here) we can therefore presumably rule out any prospect of an election being called before the Summer Recess, although 2016 is 2016. Parliament then returns briefly in September (5th) before buggering off again for Conference season (15th September to 10th October).

Anyway May is a lot of things but she's not a fool and won't want to piss away what she's strived so openly for for so long. The GB figures for the 2015 GE were Con 38, Labour 31, UKIP 13, LDem 8%, SNP 5%, Greens 4%. She would want, I would guess, a substantially larger poll lead than that (because otherwise you'd be as much at risk of losing the majority as increasing it) and for it to seem stable for there to be any chance of her going for it at all. I could be reading her wrong of course.

Based on the average swing to the government when Brown replaced Blair and Major replaced Thatcher, there could be a 20% Con lead by the start of September (that could produce a Con majority of well over 125)

[Harry Hayfield]

Although there is no requirement for the new Prime Minister to hold a general election, given how the Conservatives badgered Gordon Brown to hold an election (and then he bottled it at the last minute) I would be very surprised if the new Prime Minister did not call a general election shortly after his election in October. However, of course, that would mean having to square the circle of the Fixed Term Parliament Act (which requires 426 MP's to vote for an election). I suppose one possible option would to be offer the government's resignation and then challenge Labour and the SNP to form a majority (which is impossible) and then hold an election.

When I first started note I said HIS election. Therefore does the fact that it's a lady mean that only ladies will be able to comment on the likelihood of a new election?

[Harry Hayfield]

May gives a statement on an early election

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In other words, NO snap election

[Harry Hayfield]

Yvette Cooper MP (Lab, Normanton) has suggested on Twitter that there will be an early election that will either be called on September 21st for October 20th as part of a dastardly scheme by the Conservatives to ruin their big day of announcing the winner of the Labour leadership election.

[Harry Hayfield]

Yvette Cooper MP (Lab, Normanton) has suggested on Twitter that there will be an early election that will either be called on September 21st for October 20th as part of a dastardly scheme by the Conservatives to ruin their big day of announcing the winner of the Labour leadership election.

Exactly how does the government get around the Fixed-term Parliaments Act in just over 2 months, with Parliament in recess for most of it?

The simple rule of thumb is 429 MP's have to vote for an early election, or there is a vote of no confidence in the existing government and a vote of no confidence in the next government. The first is impossible (as it means Labour voting for an early election) the second is more than possible. May triggers a no confidence motion and whips her MP's to abstain, stating that she wishes to have a mandate (similar to Schroder and Merkel a few years back) and so the motion is carried and the government resigns, Corbyn is then asked to form a government and 14 days later presents it to the House, the Conservatives (who have the majority) vote against it and we have a general election.

[Harry Hayfield]

ICM poll published today (July 26th)
Con 43%, Lab 27%, UKIP 13%, Lib Dem 8%, SNP 4%, Green 4%, Others 1%

Forecast House of Commons: Con 375, Lab 194, SNP 45, NI Seats 18, Lib Dem 12, Plaid 4, Green 1, UKIP 1 (Con maj of 100)

[Harry Hayfield]

In an interview today with Andrew Marr on his Sunday show, Theresa May announced the date of the next general election, May 7th 2020, by stating that she would not call a general election in the wake of her election as Conservative Party leader.