Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017

[jaichind]

ICM poll published today (July 26th)
Con 43%, Lab 27%, UKIP 13%, Lib Dem 8%, SNP 4%, Green 4%, Others 1%

Forecast House of Commons: Con 375, Lab 194, SNP 45, NI Seats 18, Lib Dem 12, Plaid 4, Green 1, UKIP 1 (Con maj of 100)

I have to imagine this is a honeymoon bump for for May.  I am surprised how well the UKIP polling numbers are holding up.

[jaichind]

Labour would plunge to just 20% of the vote if the party splits, polling suggests

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/politics/opinion-polls/news/77880/labour-would-plunge-just-20-vote-if-party-splits-polling

In retrospect, maybe Labor should have aggressively backed Yes in the 2011 Alternative Vote referendum.  A Labor split would be less damaging under an AV system than a pure FPTP.