Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

Interesting. Early on I thought this was going nowhere like last time despite more Ukrainian aggression ramping up, but I am now somwhere between 40-50% sure Putin will invade.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1474010927263629318?t=A0-BplJjmriIHCyf5CbQL...

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1474010927263629318?t=A0-BplJjmriIHCyf5CbQL...

It's Europe. What state's not a construct?

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1474061427367362566?s=20

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1474060563072180228?s=20

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1474060563072180228?s=20

That was stated early this week by the Biden administration. Not new information.

[BigSerg]

The head of the DPR, Denis Pushilin, said that the chemical weapons in possession of Kiev were packed in readiness to be dropped from drones.

According to NM DNR, the first batch of chemical weapons arrived in Ukraine on American planes in October.

https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1474068458283360260?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/status/1474102101114601473?s=20

[Chips]

I've read through these threads and I just can't wrap my head around what Putin's endgame is, so I'd love to hear your thoughts.

China-Taiwan in comparison seems simple.  China wants to annex Taiwan, the only question is whether or not they can do it militarily and/or handle the consequences.

But what does Russia want?  The consensus (sorry Andriy) seems to be that Ukraine will get slaughtered in a war with Russia. 

-Tear off more Ukrainian territory?  Make the Sea of Azov a Russian lake?  Most people I've read seem to think that's the most likely scenario.  But paradoxically, it would just make the rest of Ukraine even more anti-Russian and pro-NATO, and make the rest of NATO far more amenable to letting them join.

-Install a pro-Russian puppet in Kiev?  I can't imagine large chunks of Ukraine, especially in the West, supporting that.

-Annex Ukraine entirely?  The same thing goes for West Ukraine times 100.  Also, this seems by far the most likely scenario to bring NATO intervention.

Have Ukrainians ever heard of the concept of "addition by subtraction"?  As much as it might hurt their pride, maybe they should consider letting TRULY-pro-Russian areas of the country go, if it lets them salvage the rest of the country and takes the boundary-dispute roadblock out of NATO membership.  But that also might cause too much economic damage to the country - I certainly plead guilty to not being terribly educated on the matter.

Please don't come at me too hard, I usually read instead of posting, but I really wanted to hear the thoughts of people closer to the situation than I am.

I'm not saying this as an endorsement of Putin's actions but like it or not, Putin is just not going to accept Ukraine as a NATO member under any circumstances. Period.

I don't think Putin actually has any imminent plans to invade, I think he's just trying to catch some negotiations over Ukraine's future status as a NATO vs. non-NATO state.

[Hnv1]

The head of the DPR, Denis Pushilin, said that the chemical weapons in possession of Kiev were packed in readiness to be dropped from drones.

According to NM DNR, the first batch of chemical weapons arrived in Ukraine on American planes in October.

https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1474068458283360260?s=20

There is absolutely no chance Biden's administration would sanction the sell or use of chemical weapons. Seems BS

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/guyelster/status/1474406858463092745
Oh goodie it’s starting

[GoTfan]

Is this now WW3 starting?

[Mr. Smith]

Is this now WW3 starting?

The WWs had all the continents at it, this seems confined to The North.

[Agonized-Statism]

Is this now WW3 starting?

Guess it hasn't yet, we would've heard if fighting broke out by now.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/theragex/status/1475117854332755971?t=kB--wPsrkipKe9jXJsJgpQ...

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/saletan/status/1475140674035068941?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1476234996717432837?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/status/1476255147005292545?s=20

[bilaps]

I've read through these threads and I just can't wrap my head around what Putin's endgame is, so I'd love to hear your thoughts.

China-Taiwan in comparison seems simple.  China wants to annex Taiwan, the only question is whether or not they can do it militarily and/or handle the consequences.

But what does Russia want?  The consensus (sorry Andriy) seems to be that Ukraine will get slaughtered in a war with Russia. 

-Tear off more Ukrainian territory?  Make the Sea of Azov a Russian lake?  Most people I've read seem to think that's the most likely scenario.  But paradoxically, it would just make the rest of Ukraine even more anti-Russian and pro-NATO, and make the rest of NATO far more amenable to letting them join.

-Install a pro-Russian puppet in Kiev?  I can't imagine large chunks of Ukraine, especially in the West, supporting that.

-Annex Ukraine entirely?  The same thing goes for West Ukraine times 100.  Also, this seems by far the most likely scenario to bring NATO intervention.

Have Ukrainians ever heard of the concept of "addition by subtraction"?  As much as it might hurt their pride, maybe they should consider letting TRULY-pro-Russian areas of the country go, if it lets them salvage the rest of the country and takes the boundary-dispute roadblock out of NATO membership.  But that also might cause too much economic damage to the country - I certainly plead guilty to not being terribly educated on the matter.

Please don't come at me too hard, I usually read instead of posting, but I really wanted to hear the thoughts of people closer to the situation than I am.

First, you don't have to apologize for anything.

Second, there are no fully pro-Russian regions. Yes, the East and the South are Russian-speaking, but even there the vast majority of the population wants to live in Ukraine. Yes, there is much less support for NATO and the EU there, but there is no desire to be part of Russia.

Third, as StateBoiler has said, it will set a dangerous precedent everywhere and will greatly strengthen separatist movements in Europe.

Fourth, even if we assume the hypothetical surrender of the South and the East, it will be a huge damage to Ukraine's economy. The South and the East are predominantly industrial areas, of which the state budget receives a significant share. The South is also a tourist area, millions of tourists go there to swim in the sea every year, including foreigners, which also brings significant income to the budget.

Wasn't the precedent set already when western countries recognized Kosovo independence?

[KaiserDave]

Can the mods do something about our resident twitter bot posting baseless nonsense?

[PSOL]

As we approach January, I’m going to repeat my statement that this is a nothingburger. Given the fact that Covid-19 has already damaged the Russian economy and the slipping and regaining of footing recently faced in the Caucasus and Central Asia, it was clear that Russia does not want a war right now, not so soon with the new guy whose already unpopular and weakly a placeholder for Putin.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1476694264373551107?s=20

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1476690422927929344?s=20

That tweet got deleted fast.

[thebeloitmoderate]

Oh yeah speaking of Russia and Ukraine I could do this in a nutshell
1. The ex wife is Ukraine, NATO and the EU is the ex wife's new partners/therapists, Russia is the tall and heavy angry ex husband trying to search for Ukraine, Belarus and a few other countries are the ex's husbands assistants trying to Invade Ukraine.
2. A lonely park ranger is Ukraine while the tall angry brown bear is Russia fittingly enough. The park's rangers are Poland and the Baltic States while Belarus is the bear's cub

[StateBoiler]

I've read through these threads and I just can't wrap my head around what Putin's endgame is, so I'd love to hear your thoughts.

China-Taiwan in comparison seems simple.  China wants to annex Taiwan, the only question is whether or not they can do it militarily and/or handle the consequences.

But what does Russia want?  The consensus (sorry Andriy) seems to be that Ukraine will get slaughtered in a war with Russia.  

-Tear off more Ukrainian territory?  Make the Sea of Azov a Russian lake?  Most people I've read seem to think that's the most likely scenario.  But paradoxically, it would just make the rest of Ukraine even more anti-Russian and pro-NATO, and make the rest of NATO far more amenable to letting them join.

-Install a pro-Russian puppet in Kiev?  I can't imagine large chunks of Ukraine, especially in the West, supporting that.

-Annex Ukraine entirely?  The same thing goes for West Ukraine times 100.  Also, this seems by far the most likely scenario to bring NATO intervention.

Have Ukrainians ever heard of the concept of "addition by subtraction"?  As much as it might hurt their pride, maybe they should consider letting TRULY-pro-Russian areas of the country go, if it lets them salvage the rest of the country and takes the boundary-dispute roadblock out of NATO membership.  But that also might cause too much economic damage to the country - I certainly plead guilty to not being terribly educated on the matter.

Please don't come at me too hard, I usually read instead of posting, but I really wanted to hear the thoughts of people closer to the situation than I am.

First, you don't have to apologize for anything.

Second, there are no fully pro-Russian regions. Yes, the East and the South are Russian-speaking, but even there the vast majority of the population wants to live in Ukraine. Yes, there is much less support for NATO and the EU there, but there is no desire to be part of Russia.

Third, as StateBoiler has said, it will set a dangerous precedent everywhere and will greatly strengthen separatist movements in Europe.

Fourth, even if we assume the hypothetical surrender of the South and the East, it will be a huge damage to Ukraine's economy. The South and the East are predominantly industrial areas, of which the state budget receives a significant share. The South is also a tourist area, millions of tourists go there to swim in the sea every year, including foreigners, which also brings significant income to the budget.

Wasn't the precedent set already when western countries recognized Kosovo independence?

Which was so horrific a precedent for giving just cause to future territorial conflicts that Condoleeza Rice the day it happened claimed "this is not a precedent", which was eyerolling to the extreme.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1479206824037527554?s=20