2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Fox News GCB

41-41.

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/08/Fox_August-6-9-2022_National_Topline_August-11-Release.pdf

Their last poll had Republicans up 3.

Democrats in congress have a -19 approval rating (last poll was -20) and the Republicans are at -32 (last poll had them at -24).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News GCB

41-41.

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/08/Fox_August-6-9-2022_National_Topline_August-11-Release.pdf

It was 41-44 in July.  I believe this is the first Fox GCB poll this cycle not to show R's ahead.

[wbrocks67]

41-41 is practically useless, but at least it's another trendpoint for Ds from their last poll

[Devils30]

41-41 is practically useless, but at least it's another trendpoint for Ds from their last poll

It's weird how the undecideds are increasing....you wonder if some of these pollsters get D+6 but are scared to release the poll.

[philly09]

Fox News GCB

41-41.

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/08/Fox_August-6-9-2022_National_Topline_August-11-Release.pdf

It's RV not LV.

[It’s so Joever]

41-41 is practically useless, but at least it's another trendpoint for Ds from their last poll

It's weird how the undecideds are increasing....you wonder if some of these pollsters get D+6 but are scared to release the poll.

This is clown level conspiracy stuff.

[wbrocks67]

Fox News GCB

41-41.

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/08/Fox_August-6-9-2022_National_Topline_August-11-Release.pdf

It's RV not LV.

This one also has a way larger # of people picking "Other" (6%) than any recent one of theirs too. Though their Indie sample is a mess, it's like 20% R, 18% D, 62% other/undecided lol which has contributed to the overall 18% other/undecided

[wbrocks67]

Rasmussen drops another R+3, 46-43. Same as their last one

[Lief 🗽]

Generic state legislature polls from PPP:

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1558157232415588353?s=21&t=d6dboZYsHK...

[wbrocks67]

Michigan being higher than CO is.... certainly something

[SnowLabrador]

Michigan being higher than CO is.... certainly something

Agreed. For what it's worth, I think Joe O'Dea has serious Youngkin potential this November.

[Spectator]

Michigan being higher than CO is.... certainly something

Agreed. For what it's worth, I think Joe O'Dea has serious Youngkin potential this November.

Lol

[wesmoorenerd]

Michigan being higher than CO is.... certainly something

Agreed. For what it's worth, I think Joe O'Dea has serious Youngkin potential this November.

It ain't worth much.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Michigan being higher than CO is.... certainly something

Agreed. For what it's worth, I think Joe O'Dea has serious Youngkin potential this November.

Imagine actually believing this

[Devils30]

Michigan being higher than CO is.... certainly something

Agreed. For what it's worth, I think Joe O'Dea has serious Youngkin potential this November.

Even if he gets the 12% Youngkin swing in CO, he still falls 1.5% short.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1558471549115633665

[SnowLabrador]

Michigan being higher than CO is.... certainly something

Agreed. For what it's worth, I think Joe O'Dea has serious Youngkin potential this November.

Even if he gets the 12% Youngkin swing in CO, he still falls 1.5% short.

I'm not saying he'll win, but I wouldn't be surprised if the race was within 2-3 points. It might be this cycle's equivalent of VA-SEN 2014.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Michigan being higher than CO is.... certainly something

Agreed. For what it's worth, I think Joe O'Dea has serious Youngkin potential this November.

Even if he gets the 12% Youngkin swing in CO, he still falls 1.5% short.

I'm not saying he'll win, but I wouldn't be surprised if the race was within 2-3 points. It might be this cycle's equivalent of VA-SEN 2014.

If there is any R path left in Colorado, this would probably be the race to prove it. One difference between VA and CO is Denver and Boulder provide Dems with a very hard floor and are very reliable in voting extremely D.

And even if you remove liberal CO-01 and CO-02 from the 2020 results, Biden still would've won Colorado. Finding the votes to outvote Denver and Boulder is tricky, especially since say 2014 CO-Sen performance in many suburbs is unrealistic for Rs now.

[wbrocks67]

The problem here is that voters in CO are just more Democratic. They're not looking for some Republican-lite candidate. They just want a straight up Democrat.

[MT Treasurer]

41-41 is practically useless, but at least it's another trendpoint for Ds from their last poll

It's weird how the undecideds are increasing....you wonder if some of these pollsters get D+6 but are scared to release the poll.

This is clown level conspiracy stuff.

But what if those same polls actually show that Dobbs is the top issue for 75% of voters (as opposed to 25% who name inflation, crime, etc. as their top concern) and pollsters just don’t want to release those findings because it proves that 2022 will be a MO-SEN 2012/1934 redux rather than the dead heat it is currently made out to be by the way too R-friendly prognosticators and the media? Then all the Senate race polls like Kelly +14 in AZ (SurveyMonkey) would suddenly make sense.

Clearly the GOP has done a very bad job of lowering expectations for November.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They had Reynolds up 56/41 she is gonna win 51/43 not 15 because IA three is gonna be close. Reynolds will win by 8 just like Trump did she only won by 3 last time, so the Kelly poll 54/40 8s just as ridiculous as Reynolds up 56/41

Cindy Axne isnt gonna lose by 8 that polls have her down by it's more like a 3 pt race now but she is now behind

Fetterman, Shapiro and Ryan aren't up 10 they're probably up 5.5 and so is Kelly, their all up 49/44 and when the MQK poll releases next week Evers is gonna be up 49/45 overMichels and Barnes is gonna be up 47/43 just like the last MQK poll has both Barnes up 46/44 and Evers up 48/40 WI Guarantees the 303 blue wall

It's not Lean R like MT Treasure think even if Johnson is up he won't be up 10 more like 47/43 within MOE but MT Treasure thinks WI is non competitive

[Unelectable Bystander]

Michigan being higher than CO is.... certainly something

Agreed. For what it's worth, I think Joe O'Dea has serious Youngkin potential this November.

Even if he gets the 12% Youngkin swing in CO, he still falls 1.5% short.

I'm not saying he'll win, but I wouldn't be surprised if the race was within 2-3 points. It might be this cycle's equivalent of VA-SEN 2014.

Tester, Brown, Manchin, and Collins all agree with you that special candidates can significantly outrun their state’s baseline if they distance themselves enough from the national party. The responses to this are the typical atlas meme that D trends are guaranteed into eternity while R trends will immediately reverse themselves as long as the party line D candidate (cough cough Tim Ryan) is “nice” and “quality”. (For the record, I have this as likely D and wouldn’t even be sure that O’Dea is a special candidate. But at this point I don’t know for sure, and I think the D baseline in Colorado is being significantly overrated given how many self-described moderate whites currently vote D in Colorado. I’m fairly certain they’d back someone like Hogan over AOC for example)

[wbrocks67]

Unchanged

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1559174501350445056

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats are now up to +0.5 (43.9-43.4) in the 538 average.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We must be careful about GCB because some polls since D's raised taxes are showing some R momentum like in GA and TX we're not gonna win every race anyways it's a 303 map anyways but I'm Red states they don't like tax increases but Ryan, Fetterman and Beasley are gonna win and Crist and Demings can too but some races it's gonna spell trouble like Cindy Axne since Inflation reduction Act she is now down 8 and NEB 2 we are now down

Like TX I don't think Beto is gonna win with tax increases but FL, Crist was an R already and won't raise TAXES